Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 4-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA122.5x
50%ile
P/S32.5x
0%ile
FY
EV/EBITDA
P/E
P/S
Revenue
EPS
2025
122.46x
126.03x
32.47x
$853M
$1.32
2024
-220.13x
neg
43.87x
$396M
$-0.64
2023
-444.92x
neg
81.69x
$116M
$-0.17
2022
-141.22x
neg
101.31x
$80M
$-0.45
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
Date
EPS act
EPS est
EPS surp%
Rev surp%
Excess/21d
2026-05-05
$0.61
$0.54
+13.6%
+5.5%
n/a
2026-02-10
$0.58
$0.52
+12.4%
+8.4%
-13.8%
2025-11-04
$0.49
$0.39
+25.7%
+11.7%
-8.7%
2025-08-05
$0.44
$0.32
+35.8%
+11.3%
+7.0%
2025-05-06
$0.33
$0.28
+16.2%
+4.1%
+4.8%
2025-02-10
$0.37
$0.26
+42.3%
-6.9%
-10.3%
2024-11-04
$0.23
$0.17
+34.8%
+16.0%
+9.0%
2024-08-06
$0.13
$0.11
+18.2%
-19.7%
+6.9%
2024-05-07
$0.10
$0.01
+575.2%
+15.1%
-17.9%
2024-03-21
$0.09
—
—
—
+7.8%
2023-09-30
$-0.02
—
—
—
n/a
2023-06-30
$-0.15
—
—
—
n/a
2023-03-31
$-0.13
—
—
—
n/a
2022-12-31
$-0.59
—
—
—
n/a
2022-09-30
$-0.16
—
—
—
n/a
2022-06-30
$-0.80
—
—
—
n/a
2022-03-31
$-0.16
—
—
—
n/a
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
Model Portfolio Status
Last recorded action: SELL on 2026-07-20 (mech 0.639, news_adj -0.150, surp +0.007)
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▲ bullishnear2026-07-24
Nasdaq-100 inclusion creates forced index-fund buying on top of already-strong 93% revenue growth; near-term setup unusually strong but stretched valuation vs peers warrants watching
Rothschild initiation adds institutional validation to high-speed connectivity thesis; strong guidance range above consensus — but 26.3% move in 30 days means buy-side whisper bar is elevated into Q2 print
Index inclusion drove +26% creating elevated sentiment bar; insider selling is a technical overhang not fundamental, but retail interprets it bearishly; real test is Q2 earnings vs $355-365M guidance
Insider selling is a significant warning signal at current elevated multiples -- the fundamental growth is real (93% YoY) but insiders dumping ahead of Q2 earnings on Aug 4 suggests either valuation concern or operational headwind not yet visible in consensus estimates.
Nasdaq-100 inclusion creates structural forced buying; Q2 guide above prior analyst consensus with 93% QoQ growth and 20%+ operating margin — both better than expected for a company this early in its growth curve.
Stock Demon
Overview
Strategy
Portfolio
Earnings
Digest
Health
Architecture
Private cockpit · Not investment advice