Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 4-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2025 |
122.46x |
126.03x |
32.47x |
$853M |
$1.32 |
| 2024 |
-220.13x |
neg |
43.87x |
$396M |
$-0.64 |
| 2023 |
-444.92x |
neg |
81.69x |
$116M |
$-0.17 |
| 2022 |
-141.22x |
neg |
101.31x |
$80M |
$-0.45 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-05-05 |
$0.61 |
$0.54 |
+13.6% |
+5.5% |
n/a |
| 2026-02-10 |
$0.58 |
$0.52 |
+12.4% |
+8.4% |
-13.8% |
| 2025-11-04 |
$0.49 |
$0.39 |
+25.7% |
+11.7% |
-8.7% |
| 2025-08-05 |
$0.44 |
$0.32 |
+35.8% |
+11.3% |
+7.0% |
| 2025-05-06 |
$0.33 |
$0.28 |
+16.2% |
+4.1% |
+4.8% |
| 2025-02-10 |
$0.37 |
$0.26 |
+42.3% |
-6.9% |
-10.3% |
| 2024-11-04 |
$0.23 |
$0.17 |
+34.8% |
+16.0% |
+9.0% |
| 2024-08-06 |
$0.13 |
$0.11 |
+18.2% |
-19.7% |
+6.9% |
| 2024-05-07 |
$0.10 |
$0.01 |
+575.2% |
+15.1% |
-17.9% |
| 2024-03-21 |
$0.09 |
— |
— |
— |
+7.8% |
| 2023-09-30 |
$-0.02 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2023-06-30 |
$-0.15 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2023-03-31 |
$-0.13 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2022-12-31 |
$-0.59 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2022-09-30 |
$-0.16 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2022-06-30 |
$-0.80 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2022-03-31 |
$-0.16 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▲ bullish
long
2026-08-12
Q3 guidance was $124-144M above consensus – an extraordinary upside surprise forcing full model resets; 18 Buy / 0 Sell consensus after estimates revised 20+ times with zero downward revisions.
source ↗
● neutral
near
2026-08-07
EPS $0.80 vs $0.64 est (+25%), Q3 guide $540-560M vs $81-cent consensus — massive beats; stock -12% because whisper bar far exceeded published consensus and the stock had already rallied to price in a moonshot; retail bought the beat, professionals sold into it
source ↗
▲ bullish
near
2026-08-05
16% EPS beat and Q3 guidance significantly above management's own prior reaffirmation; AH -2.3% after +12.6% regular session is a 'sell the news' micro-signal — stock priced high enough that even a blowout invites profit-taking.
source ↗
▲ bullish
near
2026-08-03
Stock down ~45% from highs implies dramatic expectations reset despite consecutive beat quarters; Q2 guide of $355-365M is the floor with avg 21.42% upside vs consensus historically; 200bps gross margin headwind from customer warrant agreement is well-telegraphed so the real surprise will come from revenue or EPS upside.
source ↗
▲ bullish
near
2026-07-31
NDX100 forced-buying wave plus 21 consecutive upward estimate revisions with zero downward: market is pricing in AI connectivity TAM expansion; revenue guidance inline with consensus but bar already rising
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$370.42
+1.6% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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