Stock Demon
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Private cockpit · Not investment advice
Stock Demon
Overview
Strategy
Portfolio
Earnings
Digest
Health
Architecture
Private cockpit · Not investment advice
Model paper portfolio · Go-live 2026-06-01 · Advisory only — no real trades
| Symbol | Weight | Entry | Current | P&L | Stop | Opened | Mech validated |
News unproven |
Surp commodity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 12.5% | $494.95 | $454.62 | -8.1% | $470.20 | 2026-07-27 | 0.702 | +0.150 | +0.003 |
| ASML | 12.5% | $1,655.26 | $1,582.95 | -4.4% | $1,572.50 | 2026-07-27 | 0.704 | +0.150 | +0.000 |
| CRDO | 12.5% | $236.88 | $192.28 | -18.8% | $217.93 | 2026-07-13 | 0.761 | +0.150 | +0.018 |
| DELL | 12.5% | $466.02 | $392.06 | -15.9% | $392.75 | 2026-06-01 | 0.787 | +0.150 | +0.050 |
| EQIX | 12.5% | $1,092.19 | $1,034.86 | -5.2% | $956.37 | 2026-06-22 | 0.742 | +0.150 | +0.000 |
| MRVL | 12.5% | $219.43 | $174.47 | -20.5% | $200.13 | 2026-06-01 | 0.764 | +0.150 | -0.016 |
| MU | 12.5% | $937.00 | $820.53 | -12.4% | $862.04 | 2026-07-13 | 0.858 | +0.150 | +0.000 |
| NVDA | 12.5% | $210.69 | $197.02 | -6.5% | $187.25 | 2026-06-22 | 0.637 | +0.150 | +0.012 |
| AMD | ASML | CRDO | DELL | EQIX | MRVL | MU | NVDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 1.00 | 0.70 | 0.52 | 0.44 | 0.21 | 0.55 | 0.64 | 0.53 |
| ASML | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.55 | 0.34 | 0.19 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.55 |
| CRDO | 0.52 | 0.55 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.07 | 0.44 | 0.52 | 0.36 |
| DELL | 0.44 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.10 | 0.27 | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| EQIX | 0.21 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1.00 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| MRVL | 0.55 | 0.62 | 0.44 | 0.27 | 0.16 | 1.00 | 0.53 | 0.36 |
| MU | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.52 | 0.33 | 0.14 | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.44 |
| NVDA | 0.53 | 0.55 | 0.36 | 0.24 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 0.44 | 1.00 |
| Signal | Actions with adj>0 | Actions neutral/neg | Fwd return comparison | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| news_adj UNPROVEN LIVE | 3 | 2 | insufficient data | Unproven — live test in progress |
| surprise_adj COMMODITY | 4 | 1 | insufficient data | Commodity signal — promising but not proven |
node guidance.js --thesis-scorecard for the Node-based version with forward-return math once history accrues.| Date | Symbol | Action | Price | Mech | News adj | Surp adj | Reason / Cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | MU | HOLD | $900.20 | 0.858 | +0.150 | +0.000 | ▲▼ cases▲ r3m +74%, r6m +107%; val_raw 0.88 (EV/EBITDA 7.7 — cheap vs own history); blowout Q3, KeyBanc PT $1,750.
▼ r3m +74% is peak-momentum territory (kb_lesson #7 stretched-momentum flag). Cheap valuation cushions but cyclical memory reversion is the tail risk. Down −22% from post-earnings highs already; further…
|
| 2026-07-27 | CRDO | HOLD | $208.14 | 0.761 | +0.150 | +0.018 | ▲▼ cases▲ Val_raw 1.00; Q4 revenue $437M +157%; FY26 $1.3B+; Zacks #1 Strong Buy.
▼ min_5d −9.87% (heavy-down day in last week) fires the recent-heavy-down flag; small-cap networking name; residual layer-concentration risk with CRDO+ANET(-→ANET sold today).
|
| 2026-07-27 | EQIX | HOLD | $1,046.79 | 0.742 | +0.150 | +0.000 | ▲▼ cases▲ Cheap own-hist EV/EBITDA 23.6; Q2 AFFO consensus +13.5%; new AI-factory GTM.
▼ Leadership reshuffle adds uncertainty; last surprise −1.86%; sector rate-sensitivity.
|
| 2026-07-27 | NVDA | HOLD | $196.53 | 0.637 | +0.150 | +0.012 | ▲▼ cases▲ Rubin arch 2 quarters ahead; Blackwell sold out through mid-2026; Goldman: 21.7x fwd P/E 'compelling'.
▼ Weakest momentum among holds (r3m -1.5%, r6m +2.1%). Position underwater vs 06-22 entry 210.69. If the mech component keeps decaying, will likely drop out next cycle.
|
| 2026-07-27 | MRVL | HOLD | $189.17 | 0.764 | +0.150 | -0.016 | ▲▼ cases▲ r6m +132.6%; multi-catalyst (NVDA equity, XConn closing, Teralynx); val_raw 1.00 (cheap own-hist EV/EBITDA 15.4).
▼ Signal-disagreement flag technically fires: news bullish (+0.15) but Q1 surprise ordinal slightly negative (inline eps → -1/3 ordinal). Magnitude tiny; not treating as a real conflict.
|
| 2026-07-27 | DELL | HOLD | $426.54 | 0.787 | +0.150 | +0.050 | ▲▼ cases▲ AI-server revenue +757% YoY; FY27 guide raised; stock reversed 07-15 selloff and is +8.67%.
▼ Range_pos 0.88 (near 52w highs) + r6m +260% = classic stretched-momentum flag (kb_lesson #7); val_raw 0.35. Watch — if score-hold slips OR range_pos stays >0.85 into another mech decay, downgrade.
|
| 2026-07-27 | ASML | BUY | $1,655.26 | 0.704 | +0.150 | +0.000 | ▲▼ cases▲ Multi-signal alignment: beat + raised guide + cheap own-hist valuation; AI/HBM demand cited; range_pos 0.74 not stretched.
▼ Semi-equip cyclicality + export-control tail risk (China); shares fell post-report despite beat (buyer's remorse signal). Single-name choke-point risk in EUV.
|
| 2026-07-27 | AMD | BUY | $494.95 | 0.702 | +0.150 | +0.003 | ▲▼ cases▲ AI Advancing 2026 catalysts: first 2nm production CPU (EPYC Venice), MI455X powers Helios rack; r6m +96%, r3m +40%. All three signals align (mech+news+surp).
▼ Val_raw only 0.35 (EV/EBITDA 47.8 near top of own-hist range) — stretched valuation; kb_lesson #8: valuation is a damper, not a return source. Was sold on 07-13 at 534; re-entering ~40 pts lower is no…
|
| 2026-07-27 | ANET | SELL | $170.76 | 0.539 | +0.150 | +0.003 | ▲▼ cases▲ Bull thesis intact: Arista 7060XE7 1.6Tbps launch, Q2 earnings Aug 4; PT hikes to $200/$210.
▼ Momentum has rolled over vs peers; kb_lessons #7 flags momentum as dominant return driver — riding a name whose mech has fallen is contra-signal. Networking-layer already trimmed (ALAB sold 07-20); CR…
|
| 2026-07-20 | ALAB | SELL | $309.09 | 0.639 | -0.150 | +0.007 | ▲▼ cases▲ Q1 rev $308M +93% YoY, Nasdaq-100 inclusion, still 3/6m momentum-percentile 84th, cheap vs own EV/EBITDA history (val rank 55th).
▼ Bearish news + heavy insider selling ahead of Aug 4 earnings; 21d dd -36% signals momentum breakdown; networking-layer concentration violates kb_lessons diversification rule. Signals disagree with mec…
|
| 2026-07-13 | MU | BUY | $937.00 | 0.648 | +0.150 | +0.000 | ▲▼ cases▲ Blowout Q3 (rev $41.5B vs $35.8B est), $50B Q4 guide, r6m +177%; oversold pullback reads bullish-vs-expectations.
▼ Memory is deeply cyclical; -4.3% today and ~22% off highs; surprise tilt fully decayed (print >63td ago). Single biggest risk: a memory-cycle rollover.
|
| 2026-07-13 | CRDO | BUY | $236.88 | 0.647 | +0.150 | +0.077 | ▲▼ cases▲ Strong 3/6m momentum, above MAs; recent EPS beat +13% (surprise tilt +0.077); bullish long-horizon news.
▼ Fell -8.1% today (in deterioration scan); adds to networking concentration with ALAB/ANET; small-cap high-beta connectivity name, momentum-driven (kb_lesson: momentum regime-dependent).
|
| 2026-07-13 | ANET | BUY | $181.15 | 0.603 | +0.150 | +0.010 | ▲▼ cases▲ 7060XE7 1.6Tbps AI-switch launch drove +7%; KeyBanc $200 / TD Cowen $210 hikes; range_pos 0.90, above 50/200d MAs.
▼ Networking sleeve now 3/8 (ALAB,CRDO,ANET) - correlated AI-networking bet, and todays scan flagged networking as a rolling-over layer. Single biggest risk: a networking-capex air-pocket hits all three…
|
| 2026-07-13 | ENTG | SELL | $136.27 | 0.518 | +0.000 | +0.022 | ▲▼ cases▲ Cheap own-history EV/EBITDA; foundry-materials exposure.
▼ Down 24% through stop 164; foundry layer flagged rolling over in todays deterioration scan (5 names); no news tailwind to offset the breakdown.
|
| 2026-07-13 | ARM | SELL | $298.99 | 0.569 | -0.150 | +0.011 | ▲▼ cases▲ High historical momentum, silicon-IP licensing franchise.
▼ Price -32% below entry and through stop 404; bearish-vs-expectations news; mechanics still elevated but price+news both broke - textbook stretched-momentum unwind (kb_lesson: momentum is regime-depend…
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| 2026-07-13 | AMD | SELL | $534.39 | 0.695 | +0.000 | +0.010 | ▲▼ cases▲ Strong mechanical momentum (0.695), up ~287% 1y; analyst targets $600-640.
▼ News neutralized ahead of two-sided Jul-22 Zen6 launch + Aug-4 print; rank slipped to 10 as fresher news-backed names scored higher - momentum without a news tailwind.
|
| 2026-06-22 | DELL | add | $418.99 | 0.808 | +0.150 | +0.145 | ▲▼ cases▲ expectations gap: EPS beat 65%, AI server +757% YoY; servers layer leader
▼ single-name servers layer; weekly digest flagged DELL stop-watch — monitor downside
|
| 2026-06-22 | AMD | add | $551.63 | 0.722 | +0.150 | +0.036 | ▲▼ cases▲ Rackspace 30MW AI compute deal; ATH on earnings; Q2 guide above
▼ silicon layer concentration (4/8); momentum stretched (price 510→551)
|
| 2026-06-22 | MRVL | trim | $307.86 | 0.802 | +0.090 | -0.048 | ▲▼ cases▲ CFO appointment + Q2 reaffirm $2.4B; $2B NVDA investment
▼ silicon layer concentration; signals slightly disagreeing (news bullish vs negative surprise tilt)
|
| 2026-06-22 | ALAB | trim | $439.66 | 0.726 | +0.150 | +0.107 | ▲▼ cases▲ networking layer leader; Nasdaq-100 inclusion; consistent beat pattern
▼ networking single-name exposure; price ran from 320→440, stretched-momentum risk per kb_lessons
|
| 2026-06-22 | NBIS | sell | $283.61 | — | — | — | ▲▼ cases▲ Nasdaq-100 inclusion + $2B NVDA strategic investment
▼ rolled out below top-8; cloud layer maintained via DELL/EQIX adjacency
|
| 2026-06-22 | MU | sell | $1,211.38 | — | — | — | ▲▼ cases▲ HBM sold-out narrative continues; Q3 preview bullish
▼ rolled out below top-8 cutoff at rebalance; concentration in memory reduced
|
| 2026-06-22 | STX | sell | $1,094.04 | — | — | — | ▲▼ cases▲ memory/storage momentum; price advanced 921→1094
▼ rolled out of top-8; memory layer concentration was high entering month
|
| 2026-06-22 | WDC | sell | $732.62 | — | — | — | ▲▼ cases▲ memory layer cyclical exposure had run; price up to 732 from 546 entry
▼ rolled out of top-8 ranking; memory cycle near-peak risk per kb_lessons valuation damper
|
| 2026-06-22 | EQIX | buy | $1,092.19 | 0.894 | +0.150 | -0.062 | ▲▼ cases▲ mech 0.894: momentum healthy, range_pos 0.91, EV/EBITDA 17th-pct cheap; record $1.8B AI inference backlog
▼ signals disagree (mech+news bullish vs negative surprise tilt); last EPS missed -1.9%
|
| 2026-06-22 | ARM | buy | $439.46 | 0.812 | +0.150 | +0.025 | ▲▼ cases▲ momentum extreme r3m +232%/r6m +285%, MAs above; bullish fiscal Q4 + Q1 guide; small beat
▼ stretched-momentum kb_lessons red flag (extreme returns); New Street downgrade to Neutral June 18 at ~$420; silicon layer concentration
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| 2026-06-22 | ENTG | buy | $178.77 | 0.944 | +0.000 | +0.062 | ▲▼ cases▲ highest mech 0.944: momentum strong, range_pos 0.98, EV/EBITDA 17th-pct cheap; EPS bigbeat +15.4%
▼ no news signal (only mechanical + surprise); foundry layer single-name exposure; surprise tilt small
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| 2026-06-22 | NVDA | buy | $210.69 | 0.829 | +0.150 | +0.032 | ▲▼ cases▲ Q1 +85% rev, $1T 2027 capex thesis; EV/EBITDA 17th-pct own history; momentum 0.870 trend 0.726; signals agree
▼ silicon layer concentrated (4/8 names) per kb_lessons regime risk; momentum-bull regime dependent (one-path validation)
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| 2026-06-01 | WDC | buy | $546.20 | 0.726 | +0.000 | +0.100 | ▲▼ cases▲ momentum strong (0.815: positive 3/6m trend, above MAs); trend quality healthy (0.965); recent EPS bigbeat (surprise tilt +0.100, decaying) [final 0.826 = mech 0.726 +0.000 news +0.100 surprise]
▼ Biggest risk: momentum regime could turn (edge rests on one momentum-bull path). Disconfirming evidence: break below suggested stop $497.60 (−8.9%) or rvol-heavy down days.
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| 2026-06-01 | MRVL | hold | $219.43 | 0.802 | +0.090 | -0.048 | ▲▼ cases▲ momentum strong (0.827: positive 3/6m trend, above MAs); valuation reasonable vs own history (val 0.750); trend quality healthy (0.816); news bullish vs expectations (long): Beat consensus EPS by 6.7%…
▼ Biggest risk: recent EPS inline (surprise tilt -0.048) — misses historically lag the basket ~4%/21d (regime-dependent). Plus baseline caveat: momentum regime could turn (edge rests on one momentum-bul…
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| 2026-06-01 | STX | hold | $921.26 | 0.752 | +0.000 | +0.095 | ▲▼ cases▲ momentum strong (0.863: positive 3/6m trend, above MAs); trend quality healthy (0.976); recent EPS bigbeat (surprise tilt +0.095, decaying) [final 0.847 = mech 0.752 +0.000 news +0.095 surprise]
▼ Biggest risk: momentum regime could turn (edge rests on one momentum-bull path). Disconfirming evidence: break below suggested stop $833.22 (−9.6%) or rvol-heavy down days.
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| 2026-06-01 | AMD | hold | $510.13 | 0.722 | +0.150 | +0.036 | ▲▼ cases▲ momentum strong (0.810: positive 3/6m trend, above MAs); trend quality healthy (0.959); news bullish vs expectations (near): Beat consensus by ~3% on revenue; stock hit all-time high on earnings — buy…
▼ Biggest risk: momentum regime could turn (edge rests on one momentum-bull path). Disconfirming evidence: break below suggested stop $469.30 (−8.0%) or rvol-heavy down days.
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| 2026-06-01 | MU | hold | $1,034.74 | 0.796 | +0.150 | +0.029 | ▲▼ cases▲ momentum strong (0.946: positive 3/6m trend, above MAs); trend quality healthy (0.987); news bullish vs expectations (near): Guidance implies record revenue well above prior consensus; structural supp…
▼ Biggest risk: momentum regime could turn (edge rests on one momentum-bull path). Disconfirming evidence: break below suggested stop $931.21 (−10.0%) or rvol-heavy down days.
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| 2026-06-01 | ALAB | hold | $320.09 | 0.726 | +0.150 | +0.107 | ▲▼ cases▲ momentum strong (0.804: positive 3/6m trend, above MAs); trend quality healthy (0.872); news bullish vs expectations (near): EPS $0.61 vs $0.54 est — consistent beat pattern continues; Q2 guide at 15-…
▼ Biggest risk: momentum regime could turn (edge rests on one momentum-bull path). Disconfirming evidence: break below suggested stop $300.88 (−6.0%) or rvol-heavy down days.
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| 2026-06-01 | NBIS | hold | $264.51 | 0.788 | +0.090 | +0.121 | ▲▼ cases▲ momentum strong (0.893: positive 3/6m trend, above MAs); trend quality healthy (0.957); news bullish vs expectations (long): 684% growth vastly exceeded expectations; hedge fund (ex-OpenAI researcher)…
▼ Biggest risk: momentum regime could turn (edge rests on one momentum-bull path). Disconfirming evidence: break below suggested stop $232.77 (−12.0%) or rvol-heavy down days.
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| 2026-06-01 | DELL | hold | $466.02 | 0.808 | +0.150 | +0.145 | ▲▼ cases▲ momentum strong (0.970: positive 3/6m trend, above MAs); trend quality healthy (0.990); news bullish vs expectations (near): Massive expectations divergence: EPS beat by 65%, AI server revenue 757% Yo…
▼ Biggest risk: momentum regime could turn (edge rests on one momentum-bull path). Disconfirming evidence: break below suggested stop $410.10 (−12.0%) or rvol-heavy down days.
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| 2026-06-01 | NVDA | sell | $224.36 | 0.615 | +0.150 | +0.044 | ▲▼ cases▲ was held; momentum faded
▼ dropped from top-N at rebalance
|