Stock Demon
Overview
Strategy
Portfolio
Earnings
Digest
Health
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Private cockpit · Not investment advice
Stock Demon
Overview
Strategy
Portfolio
Earnings
Digest
Health
Architecture
Private cockpit · Not investment advice
Model paper portfolio · Go-live 2026-06-01 · Advisory only — no real trades
| Symbol | Weight | Entry | Current | P&L | Stop | Opened | Mech validated |
News unproven |
Surp commodity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 12.5% | $284.02 | $249.67 | -12.1% | $269.82 | 2026-08-03 | 0.762 | +0.150 | +0.000 |
| CRDO | 12.5% | $236.88 | $210.97 | -10.9% | $207.43 | 2026-07-13 | 0.820 | +0.150 | +0.010 |
| DELL | 12.5% | $466.02 | $562.90 | +20.8% | $407.77 | 2026-06-01 | 0.764 | +0.150 | +0.036 |
| EQIX | 12.5% | $1,042.62 | $1,008.08 | -3.3% | $938.36 | 2026-08-10 | 0.678 | +0.150 | +0.000 |
| MRVL | 12.5% | $219.43 | $261.94 | +19.4% | $184.09 | 2026-06-01 | 0.778 | +0.150 | -0.007 |
| MSFT | 12.5% | $487.65 | $516.17 | +5.8% | $463.27 | 2026-08-03 | 0.788 | +0.150 | +0.000 |
| MU | 12.5% | $937.00 | $1,082.28 | +15.5% | $787.66 | 2026-07-13 | 0.748 | +0.150 | +0.000 |
| NVDA | 12.5% | $223.96 | $225.07 | +0.5% | $201.56 | 2026-08-10 | 0.725 | +0.150 | +0.003 |
| AMZN | CRDO | DELL | EQIX | MRVL | MSFT | MU | NVDA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 1.00 | 0.08 | 0.04 | -0.03 | 0.08 | 0.44 | -0.03 | 0.16 |
| CRDO | 0.08 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 0.54 | 0.02 | 0.57 | 0.34 |
| DELL | 0.04 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.24 | 0.31 | 0.19 | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| EQIX | -0.03 | 0.20 | 0.24 | 1.00 | 0.28 | 0.03 | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| MRVL | 0.08 | 0.54 | 0.31 | 0.28 | 1.00 | -0.06 | 0.65 | 0.41 |
| MSFT | 0.44 | 0.02 | 0.19 | 0.03 | -0.06 | 1.00 | -0.03 | 0.14 |
| MU | -0.03 | 0.57 | 0.40 | 0.28 | 0.65 | -0.03 | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| NVDA | 0.16 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 0.27 | 0.41 | 0.14 | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| Signal | Actions with adj>0 | Actions neutral/neg | Fwd return comparison | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| news_adj UNPROVEN LIVE | 3 | 2 | insufficient data | Unproven — live test in progress |
| surprise_adj COMMODITY | 4 | 1 | insufficient data | Commodity signal — promising but not proven |
node guidance.js --thesis-scorecard for the Node-based version with forward-return math once history accrues.| Date | Symbol | Action | Price | Mech | News adj | Surp adj | Reason / Cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | EQIX | BUY | $1,042.62 | 0.678 | +0.150 | +0.000 | ▲▼ cases▲ Bullish news, val=1.0, trend 0.871 (range_pos 0.79, only 1 heavy-down day). Data-center REIT diversifies away from silicon.
▼ Mech 0.678 — not top-tier; boosted mainly by news+val. Rate-sensitive if 10y rises. Substituted for #8 ARM which triggered stretched-momo (ret_6m +124%) + silicon concentration flags.
|
| 2026-08-10 | NVDA | BUY | $223.96 | 0.725 | +0.150 | +0.003 | ▲▼ cases▲ EV/EBITDA at bottom of 6y history (val=1.0), bullish news lean, vs_ma50 +9%. Not stretched (vs_ma200 +15%).
▼ Silicon layer concentration (already hold MRVL, MU). AI-capex cycle risk shared with the layer. Mech 0.725 mostly boosted by news+val, not by pure trend.
|
| 2026-08-10 | MSFT | BUY | $499.99 | 0.788 | +0.150 | +0.000 | ▲▼ cases▲ Final 0.938 (#2); Q4 Azure +43% vs 39-40% guided; 30M+ paid AI seats; val=1.0.
▼ Cloud-layer overlap with AMZN. mech 0.788 (solid, not extreme). Top-up is dust ($0.39).
|
| 2026-08-10 | AMZN | BUY | $274.48 | 0.762 | +0.150 | +0.000 | ▲▼ cases▲ Final 0.912 (#5); Q2 AWS +37% (6pp beat); EV/EBITDA at cycle low (val=1.0); trend 0.906.
▼ Cloud-layer concentration with MSFT (both top-5, both bullish news). If AI capex disappoints, both correlated. Small top-up limits incremental risk.
|
| 2026-08-10 | CRDO | TRIM | $249.89 | 0.820 | +0.150 | +0.010 | ▲▼ cases▲ Highest ranked: final 0.981. Bullish news + val=1.0 + fresh Jun-1 beat still decaying positive.
▼ Stretched: ret_6m +85%, vs_ma200 +47%, heavy_down_21=7 (volatile). Networking name — thesis intact but position-sizing discipline warrants trim.
|
| 2026-08-10 | MRVL | TRIM | $218.72 | 0.778 | +0.150 | -0.007 | ▲▼ cases▲ Final 0.920 (#3), val=1.0 (EV/EBITDA at bottom of history), bullish news; ret_6m +167%.
▼ Stretched-momentum flag (kb#7): ret_6m +167%, vs_ma200 +55%. Silicon layer concentration alongside MU/NVDA. Trim reduces exposure risk.
|
| 2026-08-10 | ASML | SELL | $1,740.99 | 0.667 | +0.000 | +0.000 | ▲▼ cases▲ EUV monopoly and FY26 guide raise still structurally intact.
▼ Missing news catalyst + vs_ma50 -1.65% (rolling over); simply outranked, not a red flag exit.
|
| 2026-08-10 | AMD | SELL | $483.36 | 0.584 | -0.150 | +0.000 | ▲▼ cases▲ Aug-4 Q2 print + AI silicon momentum kept it top-4 in prior rebalance.
▼ News turned bearish + mech decayed to 0.584; kb#7 momentum edge is regime-dependent, so a signal weakening is a real exit trigger. Silicon layer is already covered by MRVL/MU/NVDA.
|
| 2026-08-03 | MU | BUY | $829.11 | 0.748 | +0.150 | +0.000 | ▲▼ cases▲ Samsung HBM multi-year deal; blowout Q3; HBM4 fully allocated at premium; still cheap on own-hist EV/EBITDA (0.88 val).
▼ Below 50d MA (-15%); CXMT China DRAM entrant is longer-term risk. kb_lessons: signals aligned, no red flag.
|
| 2026-08-03 | MRVL | BUY | $193.78 | 0.723 | +0.150 | -0.011 | ▲▼ cases▲ NVDA $2B strategic investment; T100 AI switch; 6m return +156%; own-hist EV/EBITDA at multi-year low.
▼ Below 50d MA (weakness), latest EPS inline (mild bearish surprise tilt). Signals slightly disagree (news bull, surprise inline) but net positive.
|
| 2026-08-03 | DELL | BUY | $429.23 | 0.764 | +0.150 | +0.036 | ▲▼ cases▲ AI-server rev $16.1B (+757% YoY), $51.3B backlog; guidance raised; DCF cheap on own hist.
▼ 6m return +266% — signature stretched-momentum profile. kb_lessons red flag: momentum core is regime-dependent; keep at EW, no over-weight, monitor closely.
|
| 2026-08-03 | CRDO | BUY | $218.35 | 0.761 | +0.150 | +0.043 | ▲▼ cases▲ 157% YoY revenue growth; FY27 guide 80%+ growth; recent EPS beat +12.6%; own-hist EV/EBITDA at low.
▼ Broke below 50d MA; small-cap volatility, high momentum extension over 6m (+96%). kb_lessons flag: watch for stretched-momentum single-name concentration, but signals broadly aligned.
|
| 2026-08-03 | ASML | BUY | $1,642.52 | 0.658 | +0.150 | +0.000 | ▲▼ cases▲ Second FY26 raise to €43-45B; EUV monopoly + HBM capacity tailwind; own-hist EV/EBITDA still cheap (0.85 val score).
▼ Multiple compression despite raised guide; China export overhang. Signals aligned bullish, no red flag.
|
| 2026-08-03 | AMD | BUY | $484.64 | 0.653 | +0.150 | +0.014 | ▲▼ cases▲ Advancing-AI catalysts (EPYC Venice Zen 6 2nm, MI455X Helios rack); Aug 4 earnings whisper > consensus; 6m return +100%.
▼ Options implying 12% move into tomorrows Q2; stock +160% YTD leaves narrow margin for Q3 guide slip. kb_lessons: momentum-driven position, one-path regime risk.
|
| 2026-08-03 | MSFT | BUY | $487.65 | 0.757 | +0.150 | +0.000 | ▲▼ cases▲ Q4 Azure +43% vs guided 39-40%; +$450B market cap sustained post-print signals institutional re-rating; 30M+ paid AI seats show monetization; EV/EBITDA at multi-year low on own history.
▼ Recent +21% vs 50d MA is stretched short-term; capex ramp risk to FCF. kb_lessons: not classic stretched-momentum (earnings-driven repricing), acceptable.
|
| 2026-08-03 | AMZN | BUY | $284.02 | 0.812 | +0.150 | +0.000 | ▲▼ cases▲ Q2 AWS +37% vs 31% consensus (6pp beat); record $27.5B operating income; range_pos 0.97 (breakout on Q2 print); valuation cheap on own history (EV/EBITDA at multi-year low).
▼ Q3 guide light on Prime Day timing shift and $220B capex commitment pressures FCF; kb_lessons check: this is an earnings-catalyst breakout not stretched-momentum, but valuation reads are slow-moving (…
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| 2026-08-03 | NVDA | SELL | $206.64 | 0.647 | +0.000 | +0.007 | ▲▼ cases▲ MU/Samsung HBM deal and AI infra spend still support core demand; DCF still supportive vs valuation history (cheap on own EV/EBITDA history).
▼ Momentum has flattened (r3m only +4%, vs_ma50 nearly flat) into Aug 26 earnings; news lean neutral, whisper > consensus so bar is high. kb_lessons red flag: mechanical trend/momentum core, not a tilt-…
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| 2026-08-03 | EQIX | SELL | $1,031.44 | 0.679 | +0.000 | +0.000 | ▲▼ cases▲ Cheap on own-hist EV/EBITDA and record bookings; long-term AI data-center backlog intact.
▼ Q3 guide disappointed and cloud REITs re-rating vs. hyperscalers; news lean now neutral. Signal-check: momentum core has faded, no strong tilt to keep it.
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| 2026-07-27 | MU | HOLD | $900.20 | 0.858 | +0.150 | +0.000 | ▲▼ cases▲ r3m +74%, r6m +107%; val_raw 0.88 (EV/EBITDA 7.7 — cheap vs own history); blowout Q3, KeyBanc PT $1,750.
▼ r3m +74% is peak-momentum territory (kb_lesson #7 stretched-momentum flag). Cheap valuation cushions but cyclical memory reversion is the tail risk. Down −22% from post-earnings highs already; further…
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| 2026-07-27 | CRDO | HOLD | $208.14 | 0.761 | +0.150 | +0.018 | ▲▼ cases▲ Val_raw 1.00; Q4 revenue $437M +157%; FY26 $1.3B+; Zacks #1 Strong Buy.
▼ min_5d −9.87% (heavy-down day in last week) fires the recent-heavy-down flag; small-cap networking name; residual layer-concentration risk with CRDO+ANET(-→ANET sold today).
|
| 2026-07-27 | EQIX | HOLD | $1,046.79 | 0.742 | +0.150 | +0.000 | ▲▼ cases▲ Cheap own-hist EV/EBITDA 23.6; Q2 AFFO consensus +13.5%; new AI-factory GTM.
▼ Leadership reshuffle adds uncertainty; last surprise −1.86%; sector rate-sensitivity.
|
| 2026-07-27 | NVDA | HOLD | $196.53 | 0.637 | +0.150 | +0.012 | ▲▼ cases▲ Rubin arch 2 quarters ahead; Blackwell sold out through mid-2026; Goldman: 21.7x fwd P/E 'compelling'.
▼ Weakest momentum among holds (r3m -1.5%, r6m +2.1%). Position underwater vs 06-22 entry 210.69. If the mech component keeps decaying, will likely drop out next cycle.
|
| 2026-07-27 | MRVL | HOLD | $189.17 | 0.764 | +0.150 | -0.016 | ▲▼ cases▲ r6m +132.6%; multi-catalyst (NVDA equity, XConn closing, Teralynx); val_raw 1.00 (cheap own-hist EV/EBITDA 15.4).
▼ Signal-disagreement flag technically fires: news bullish (+0.15) but Q1 surprise ordinal slightly negative (inline eps → -1/3 ordinal). Magnitude tiny; not treating as a real conflict.
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| 2026-07-27 | DELL | HOLD | $426.54 | 0.787 | +0.150 | +0.050 | ▲▼ cases▲ AI-server revenue +757% YoY; FY27 guide raised; stock reversed 07-15 selloff and is +8.67%.
▼ Range_pos 0.88 (near 52w highs) + r6m +260% = classic stretched-momentum flag (kb_lesson #7); val_raw 0.35. Watch — if score-hold slips OR range_pos stays >0.85 into another mech decay, downgrade.
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| 2026-07-27 | ASML | BUY | $1,655.26 | 0.704 | +0.150 | +0.000 | ▲▼ cases▲ Multi-signal alignment: beat + raised guide + cheap own-hist valuation; AI/HBM demand cited; range_pos 0.74 not stretched.
▼ Semi-equip cyclicality + export-control tail risk (China); shares fell post-report despite beat (buyer's remorse signal). Single-name choke-point risk in EUV.
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| 2026-07-27 | AMD | BUY | $494.95 | 0.702 | +0.150 | +0.003 | ▲▼ cases▲ AI Advancing 2026 catalysts: first 2nm production CPU (EPYC Venice), MI455X powers Helios rack; r6m +96%, r3m +40%. All three signals align (mech+news+surp).
▼ Val_raw only 0.35 (EV/EBITDA 47.8 near top of own-hist range) — stretched valuation; kb_lesson #8: valuation is a damper, not a return source. Was sold on 07-13 at 534; re-entering ~40 pts lower is no…
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| 2026-07-27 | ANET | SELL | $170.76 | 0.539 | +0.150 | +0.003 | ▲▼ cases▲ Bull thesis intact: Arista 7060XE7 1.6Tbps launch, Q2 earnings Aug 4; PT hikes to $200/$210.
▼ Momentum has rolled over vs peers; kb_lessons #7 flags momentum as dominant return driver — riding a name whose mech has fallen is contra-signal. Networking-layer already trimmed (ALAB sold 07-20); CR…
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| 2026-07-20 | ALAB | SELL | $309.09 | 0.639 | -0.150 | +0.007 | ▲▼ cases▲ Q1 rev $308M +93% YoY, Nasdaq-100 inclusion, still 3/6m momentum-percentile 84th, cheap vs own EV/EBITDA history (val rank 55th).
▼ Bearish news + heavy insider selling ahead of Aug 4 earnings; 21d dd -36% signals momentum breakdown; networking-layer concentration violates kb_lessons diversification rule. Signals disagree with mec…
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| 2026-07-13 | MU | BUY | $937.00 | 0.648 | +0.150 | +0.000 | ▲▼ cases▲ Blowout Q3 (rev $41.5B vs $35.8B est), $50B Q4 guide, r6m +177%; oversold pullback reads bullish-vs-expectations.
▼ Memory is deeply cyclical; -4.3% today and ~22% off highs; surprise tilt fully decayed (print >63td ago). Single biggest risk: a memory-cycle rollover.
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| 2026-07-13 | CRDO | BUY | $236.88 | 0.647 | +0.150 | +0.077 | ▲▼ cases▲ Strong 3/6m momentum, above MAs; recent EPS beat +13% (surprise tilt +0.077); bullish long-horizon news.
▼ Fell -8.1% today (in deterioration scan); adds to networking concentration with ALAB/ANET; small-cap high-beta connectivity name, momentum-driven (kb_lesson: momentum regime-dependent).
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| 2026-07-13 | ANET | BUY | $181.15 | 0.603 | +0.150 | +0.010 | ▲▼ cases▲ 7060XE7 1.6Tbps AI-switch launch drove +7%; KeyBanc $200 / TD Cowen $210 hikes; range_pos 0.90, above 50/200d MAs.
▼ Networking sleeve now 3/8 (ALAB,CRDO,ANET) - correlated AI-networking bet, and todays scan flagged networking as a rolling-over layer. Single biggest risk: a networking-capex air-pocket hits all three…
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| 2026-07-13 | ENTG | SELL | $136.27 | 0.518 | +0.000 | +0.022 | ▲▼ cases▲ Cheap own-history EV/EBITDA; foundry-materials exposure.
▼ Down 24% through stop 164; foundry layer flagged rolling over in todays deterioration scan (5 names); no news tailwind to offset the breakdown.
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| 2026-07-13 | ARM | SELL | $298.99 | 0.569 | -0.150 | +0.011 | ▲▼ cases▲ High historical momentum, silicon-IP licensing franchise.
▼ Price -32% below entry and through stop 404; bearish-vs-expectations news; mechanics still elevated but price+news both broke - textbook stretched-momentum unwind (kb_lesson: momentum is regime-depend…
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| 2026-07-13 | AMD | SELL | $534.39 | 0.695 | +0.000 | +0.010 | ▲▼ cases▲ Strong mechanical momentum (0.695), up ~287% 1y; analyst targets $600-640.
▼ News neutralized ahead of two-sided Jul-22 Zen6 launch + Aug-4 print; rank slipped to 10 as fresher news-backed names scored higher - momentum without a news tailwind.
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| 2026-06-22 | DELL | add | $418.99 | 0.808 | +0.150 | +0.145 | ▲▼ cases▲ expectations gap: EPS beat 65%, AI server +757% YoY; servers layer leader
▼ single-name servers layer; weekly digest flagged DELL stop-watch — monitor downside
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| 2026-06-22 | AMD | add | $551.63 | 0.722 | +0.150 | +0.036 | ▲▼ cases▲ Rackspace 30MW AI compute deal; ATH on earnings; Q2 guide above
▼ silicon layer concentration (4/8); momentum stretched (price 510→551)
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| 2026-06-22 | MRVL | trim | $307.86 | 0.802 | +0.090 | -0.048 | ▲▼ cases▲ CFO appointment + Q2 reaffirm $2.4B; $2B NVDA investment
▼ silicon layer concentration; signals slightly disagreeing (news bullish vs negative surprise tilt)
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| 2026-06-22 | ALAB | trim | $439.66 | 0.726 | +0.150 | +0.107 | ▲▼ cases▲ networking layer leader; Nasdaq-100 inclusion; consistent beat pattern
▼ networking single-name exposure; price ran from 320→440, stretched-momentum risk per kb_lessons
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| 2026-06-22 | NBIS | sell | $283.61 | — | — | — | ▲▼ cases▲ Nasdaq-100 inclusion + $2B NVDA strategic investment
▼ rolled out below top-8; cloud layer maintained via DELL/EQIX adjacency
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| 2026-06-22 | MU | sell | $1,211.38 | — | — | — | ▲▼ cases▲ HBM sold-out narrative continues; Q3 preview bullish
▼ rolled out below top-8 cutoff at rebalance; concentration in memory reduced
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| 2026-06-22 | STX | sell | $1,094.04 | — | — | — | ▲▼ cases▲ memory/storage momentum; price advanced 921→1094
▼ rolled out of top-8; memory layer concentration was high entering month
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| 2026-06-22 | WDC | sell | $732.62 | — | — | — | ▲▼ cases▲ memory layer cyclical exposure had run; price up to 732 from 546 entry
▼ rolled out of top-8 ranking; memory cycle near-peak risk per kb_lessons valuation damper
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| 2026-06-22 | EQIX | buy | $1,092.19 | 0.894 | +0.150 | -0.062 | ▲▼ cases▲ mech 0.894: momentum healthy, range_pos 0.91, EV/EBITDA 17th-pct cheap; record $1.8B AI inference backlog
▼ signals disagree (mech+news bullish vs negative surprise tilt); last EPS missed -1.9%
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| 2026-06-22 | ARM | buy | $439.46 | 0.812 | +0.150 | +0.025 | ▲▼ cases▲ momentum extreme r3m +232%/r6m +285%, MAs above; bullish fiscal Q4 + Q1 guide; small beat
▼ stretched-momentum kb_lessons red flag (extreme returns); New Street downgrade to Neutral June 18 at ~$420; silicon layer concentration
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| 2026-06-22 | ENTG | buy | $178.77 | 0.944 | +0.000 | +0.062 | ▲▼ cases▲ highest mech 0.944: momentum strong, range_pos 0.98, EV/EBITDA 17th-pct cheap; EPS bigbeat +15.4%
▼ no news signal (only mechanical + surprise); foundry layer single-name exposure; surprise tilt small
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| 2026-06-22 | NVDA | buy | $210.69 | 0.829 | +0.150 | +0.032 | ▲▼ cases▲ Q1 +85% rev, $1T 2027 capex thesis; EV/EBITDA 17th-pct own history; momentum 0.870 trend 0.726; signals agree
▼ silicon layer concentrated (4/8 names) per kb_lessons regime risk; momentum-bull regime dependent (one-path validation)
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| 2026-06-01 | WDC | buy | $546.20 | 0.726 | +0.000 | +0.100 | ▲▼ cases▲ momentum strong (0.815: positive 3/6m trend, above MAs); trend quality healthy (0.965); recent EPS bigbeat (surprise tilt +0.100, decaying) [final 0.826 = mech 0.726 +0.000 news +0.100 surprise]
▼ Biggest risk: momentum regime could turn (edge rests on one momentum-bull path). Disconfirming evidence: break below suggested stop $497.60 (−8.9%) or rvol-heavy down days.
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| 2026-06-01 | MRVL | hold | $219.43 | 0.802 | +0.090 | -0.048 | ▲▼ cases▲ momentum strong (0.827: positive 3/6m trend, above MAs); valuation reasonable vs own history (val 0.750); trend quality healthy (0.816); news bullish vs expectations (long): Beat consensus EPS by 6.7%…
▼ Biggest risk: recent EPS inline (surprise tilt -0.048) — misses historically lag the basket ~4%/21d (regime-dependent). Plus baseline caveat: momentum regime could turn (edge rests on one momentum-bul…
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| 2026-06-01 | STX | hold | $921.26 | 0.752 | +0.000 | +0.095 | ▲▼ cases▲ momentum strong (0.863: positive 3/6m trend, above MAs); trend quality healthy (0.976); recent EPS bigbeat (surprise tilt +0.095, decaying) [final 0.847 = mech 0.752 +0.000 news +0.095 surprise]
▼ Biggest risk: momentum regime could turn (edge rests on one momentum-bull path). Disconfirming evidence: break below suggested stop $833.22 (−9.6%) or rvol-heavy down days.
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| 2026-06-01 | AMD | hold | $510.13 | 0.722 | +0.150 | +0.036 | ▲▼ cases▲ momentum strong (0.810: positive 3/6m trend, above MAs); trend quality healthy (0.959); news bullish vs expectations (near): Beat consensus by ~3% on revenue; stock hit all-time high on earnings — buy…
▼ Biggest risk: momentum regime could turn (edge rests on one momentum-bull path). Disconfirming evidence: break below suggested stop $469.30 (−8.0%) or rvol-heavy down days.
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