Weekly Digest — Week Ending August 9, 2026

Regime. Mixed breadth recovering into earnings season: 79% of the 43-name universe sits above its 200d MA (long-term uptrend intact), but only 33% clears the 50d MA — prices have been below short-term trend for weeks following the June 22 peak. The Q3 earnings wave is now pulling names back through resistance. Label: _Recovery breadth — long-term uptrend intact, near-term inflection in progress._

Movers. The three biggest gainers this week were COHR (+44%), ENTG (+28%), and CRWV (+26%). Coherent surged after its Q4 fiscal guidance came in above analyst estimates, with AI data center optics demand and a BNP Paribas PT raise to $415 as catalysts — the stock is now at the 83rd percentile of its 52-week range. Entegris rose sharply alongside the broader semis equipment rally that also lifted AMAT (+6%) and KLAC (+8%), with no single news catalyst in the dataset. CoreWeave popped on an Indonesia data center expansion announcement ahead of its Aug 11 earnings, though it remains at just the 33rd percentile of its range with substantial debt ($29.8B). On the downside, WDC fell -20%: a -13% single-day drop on Aug 6 with RVOL near 2x triggered the only high-severity alert for a portfolio-adjacent name this week. NRG Energy collapsed -12% following a brutal -15.5% session on Aug 4 (RVOL 4.6x) and is now at a range_pos of just 0.4% — essentially at its 52-week low. Vistra (VST) fell -5% on similar power-sector pressure and is also near its annual floor at range_pos 9%.

Risk. Three high-severity alerts this week: WDC (memory: -13% drop + elevated volume), NRG (power: -15.5% selloff, RVOL 4.6x, 52w-low territory), and VST (power: -8.2% decline, RVOL 2.3x). NRG and VST are not held; their cluster of near-52w-low deterioration flags suggests the power layer is under sector-specific pressure — worth watching as a possible rotation signal. SMR (NuScale) continues to fire near-52w-low alerts; also not held. Portfolio drawdown sits at -9.61% from the June 22 peak of 105.75 (indexed to 100 at inception) — well within the -20% circuit-breaker, with substantial cushion. No concentration flag: portfolio is equally weighted at 12.5% across 8 names.

Portfolio. The Aug 3 weekly rebalance rotated out of NVDA (dropped to rank #16, score 0.647) and EQIX (rank #14, score 0.679) and added AMZN (rank #1, score 0.962) and MSFT (rank #4, score 0.907). AMZN entered on AWS Q2 +37% (6pp beat) and record $27.5B operating income; MSFT on Azure Q4 +43% vs 39-40% guided with 30M+ paid AI seats. Both new entries are currently 3-4% below entry price as of Friday's close — typical early-hold noise. Existing holdings CRDO (+5.5%) and ASML (+5.2%) are the strongest contributors; MU is the laggard at -6.3% (still a thesis hold on HBM demand confirmed by Anthropic partnership and SpaceX commentary this week).

Earnings just landed. Several names in or adjacent to the portfolio reported this week. ARM beat Q4 and raised guidance with $2B+ new customer commitments; stock +18%. Arista Networks (ANET) posted a clean 15% EPS beat and Q3 guidance raise; stock +13%. Both reflected genuine outperformance against consensus. AMD beat on both EPS ($1.66 vs $1.62 est) and revenue ($11.54B vs $11.28B est) yet fell -8% on Aug 5 because buy-side whispers were set above the printed numbers — a remind that in AI semis, beating consensus is no longer sufficient. Astera Labs (ALAB) delivered a blowout quarter (+25% EPS, +104% YoY revenue, Q3 guide well above street) but fell -12% as the stock had front-run the result and institutions sold into retail demand. Coherent's Q4 guidance raise catalyzed the +44% move. SMCI's preliminary Q4 margins (15-17% actual vs 8-8.4% guided) dramatically exceeded expectations; stock +10.7%, though operating cash outflow of -$6.6B remains a watch item. Constellation Energy (CEG) beat EPS ($2.55 vs $2.37) and raised FY guidance while securing 920MW of new nuclear PPAs — the accompanying revenue miss on timing caused a knee-jerk retail sell that was subsequently reversed. Earnings data has not yet propagated to the earnings_surprises table (pipeline lag expected).

Next week. Five names on the radar: CoreWeave (Aug 11), Super Micro (Aug 11), Coherent (Aug 12), Nebius (Aug 12), and Applied Materials (Aug 13). None are currently held. CRWV enters earnings with an unpredictable beat/miss history and +26% on the week — elevated expectations risk. NBIS was crushed -12% on Aug 6 as neocloud execution concerns resurfaced; the Piper Sandler neutral initiation and wide $129-$410 analyst PT range signal deep uncertainty into its Aug 12 print. AMAT is a consistent 4-quarter beater and sits at the 64th percentile of its range (moderate elevation). COHR effectively pre-guided this week; Aug 12 should be a formal confirmation unless management revises language. SMCI's preliminary margin beat de-risks the Aug 11 print, but watch for cash flow commentary.

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Caveat: All momentum signals are validated on a single historical path and may not generalize to future regimes. A surprise commodity, macro, or geopolitical event (power pricing, DRAM spot, AI capex cuts) can override any technical or fundamental thesis. News lean classifications are unproven live-only signals based on model output, not confirmed outcomes — treat as directional context only. Past beat rates do not guarantee future results. Not investment advice.