Weekly Digest

Week ending July 26, 2026

Regime. 74% of the universe sits above its 200-day moving average — the longer-term structural trend remains intact. Near-term picture is worse: only ~30% are above their 50-day MA after Thursday's broad selloff. The basket has retreated to 83.0 (vs. 100 at June 1 inception) while the model portfolio held at 104.5, outpacing the basket by ~21 points. Both are in correction mode, but the portfolio is absorbing the drawdown materially better.

Movers. On the upside, SMCI surged +18% (Mon–Thu) after preliminary Q4 FY2026 numbers showed gross margin of 15–17% — nearly double its own guidance of 8.2–8.4% — plus record $60B new orders; short interest amplified the squeeze. DLR added +11% on a bullish AI leasing note ahead of its July 23 earnings report, printing an outsized volume spike (RVOL 3.85×). NRG rose +7% on no specific catalyst, likely benefiting from rotation into defensive power names as the rest of the AI infrastructure complex sold off. On the downside, NBIS led declines at −13% — no single catalyst beyond continued institutional de-risking after its −36% June correction; a Freedom Capital upgrade and NVDA's disclosed 9.3% stake (13G filing) provided temporary support but couldn't hold the tape. INTC fell −12% in the broad July 24 semiconductor rout. COHR dropped −11% in the same wave with no company-specific news.

Risk. Thursday July 24 was a rough session: 34 deterioration alerts fired across the universe, 10 at HIGH severity (ORCL, MRVL, ARM, COHR, CRDO, SNDK, ALAB, CRWV, NBIS, SMR). The sell-off appeared triggered by GOOGL's post-earnings capex shock (guidance raised $15B to $195–205B) and GEV's GAAP EPS miss ($2.47 vs. $3.17 consensus) unsettling AI infrastructure positioning broadly. Most acute stress: ORCL is now at range_pos 0.0009 — effectively at its 52-week low, with back-to-back HIGH-severity alerts July 23–24. CRWV (range_pos 0.09) and SMR (range_pos 0.018) are also near 52-week lows. Portfolio drawdown stands at −10.71% from the June 22 peak — uncomfortable but well inside the −20% hard stop. Networking concentration (ANET + CRDO = 25% of portfolio) is elevated but below the 37.5% level that triggered last week's ALAB exit.

Portfolio. One action this week: ALAB sold July 20 at $309.09 (composite score fell to 0.496, rank 26/43), citing networking-layer concentration and stretched-momentum reversal. ALAB fell −8.8% in the subsequent days, so the exit was well-timed. Current seven equal-weight positions: DELL, MRVL, NVDA, EQIX, ANET, CRDO, MU — all 12.5%. All positions were in the red for the week. EQIX is the only holding with an earnings event next week (July 29) and carries a bullish news lean. DELL (+8.2% on the week despite being underwater vs. entry) is showing relative strength on continued AI server demand momentum.

Earnings just landed. No formal earnings prints were logged in the D1 earnings_surprises table this week. Notable pre-announcements and reactions: GOOGL (July 22) — Cloud +82% to $24.8B beat, total revenue $119.8B beat, but stock fell −5% AH and −7.1% the next session as the market focused on the $15B capex raise. GEV (July 22) — revenue and orders beat ($11.1B, orders +88%, FCF $5.1B vs. $194M prior year) but GAAP EPS $2.47 missed $3.17; stock fell −8.7% (HIGH-severity alert July 23). SMCI pre-announced gross margin expansion (15–17% vs. 8.2–8.4% guided); stock +16–18% on the week.

Next week. Heavy calendar — 15 names report July 28–31. Key flags: ARM (July 29, beat rate 75%) — Wells Fargo flagged a "tough setup" with stock near consensus price target; not held. EQIX (July 29) — held in portfolio at 12.5%; bullish news lean; range_pos 0.89 (near 52-week high). META (July 29, beat rate 100%) — Zuckerberg warned AI agents are slower than expected; stock −7.5% on the week, in the lower third of its range. MSFT (July 29) — range_pos 0.16, near 52-week low, bullish lean. TER and PWR carry top-quintile valuation flags (priced for perfection); JPMorgan downgraded PWR to Neutral ahead of its July 30 print. AMZN (July 30, beat rate 87.5%) and ETN (July 31, beat rate 100%) round out the week with bullish news lean.

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Momentum signals are validated on one historical path; a regime shift can invalidate patterns immediately. Energy/power names are subject to weather and regulatory surprises not captured in scores. News items are UNPROVEN-LIVE-ONLY — analyst sentiment at capture time, not confirmed outcomes. Not investment advice.