AMAT — Applied Materials

Price History VALIDATED

50d MA (orange) · 200d MA (purple) · Price (blue)

Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY — slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical

Research notes (read before interpreting):

The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.

Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.

EV/EBITDA 19.3x

100%ile

P/E 26.6x

100%ile

P/S 6.6x

100%ile

FY	EV/EBITDA	P/E	P/S	Revenue	EPS
2025	19.25x	26.56x	6.56x	$28.4B	$8.71
2024	17.27x	21.35x	5.64x	$27.2B	$8.68
2023	13.00x	16.06x	4.15x	$26.5B	$8.16
2022	9.78x	11.79x	2.98x	$25.8B	$7.49
2021	17.29x	21.56x	5.50x	$23.1B	$6.47

Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY

Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.

Date	EPS act	EPS est	EPS surp%	Rev surp%	Excess/21d
2026-05-14	$2.86	$2.68	+6.7%	+3.0%	n/a
2026-02-12	$2.38	$2.21	+7.7%	+2.1%	-1.8%
2025-12-12	$2.17	$2.11	+2.8%	+1.7%	+12.9%
2025-08-14	$2.48	$2.36	+5.1%	+1.1%	-4.1%
2025-05-15	$2.39	$2.31	+3.5%	-0.4%	-5.9%
2025-02-13	$2.38	$2.28	+4.4%	+0.3%	+7.1%
2024-11-14	$2.32	$2.19	+5.9%	+1.2%	-11.6%
2024-08-15	$2.12	$2.02	+5.0%	+1.5%	-10.0%
2024-05-16	$2.09	$1.99	+5.0%	+1.7%	+4.8%
2024-02-15	$2.13	$1.91	+11.5%	+3.4%	-10.5%
2023-11-16	$2.12	$2.00	+6.0%	+9.4%	+0.4%
2023-08-17	$1.90	$1.74	+9.2%	+4.3%	-5.8%
2023-05-18	$2.00	$1.84	+8.7%	+4.0%	-5.8%
2023-02-16	$2.03	$1.93	+5.2%	+0.7%	+4.3%
2022-11-17	$2.03	$1.73	+17.3%	+4.6%	+4.4%
2022-08-18	$1.94	$1.79	+8.4%	+4.0%	-1.9%
2022-05-19	$1.85	$1.90	-2.6%	-1.6%	-6.1%
2022-02-16	$1.89	$1.85	+2.2%	+1.3%	-0.0%
2021-11-18	$1.94	$1.95	-0.5%	-1.5%	-0.4%
2021-08-19	$1.90	$1.77	+7.3%	-2.9%	+6.0%

Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY — how consensus moved after each print

No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.

Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY

Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.

Model Portfolio Status

Not in model portfolio.

News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE — UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible

No news recorded yet.

Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat

Consensus PT

$628.33

+31.9% from current

Median PT

$618.50

High PT

$900.00

Low PT

$425.00

Current

$476.46

Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.

⚠ Deterioration Alerts

Date	Type	Severity	Detail
2026-07-28	price_drop	high	Condition 1: -7.82% single-day drop
2026-07-24	deterioration	medium	Condition: (a) -4.72% single-day drop
2026-07-17	deterioration	medium	Condition (a): -5.57% drop
2026-07-14	deterioration	medium	day -4.5%; big-drop <=-4%
2026-06-23	deterioration	high	Conditions: (a) -8.48% drop, (d) -8.48% vs prev snapshot

Applied Materials AMAT