Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA47.8x
65%ile
P/E80.5x
16%ile
P/S10.1x
85%ile
FY
EV/EBITDA
P/E
P/S
Revenue
EPS
2025
47.85x
80.52x
10.08x
$34.6B
$2.67
2024
38.27x
123.95x
7.87x
$25.8B
$1.01
2023
57.12x
278.13x
10.49x
$22.7B
$0.53
2022
17.91x
76.20x
4.28x
$23.6B
$0.85
2021
42.10x
55.99x
10.79x
$16.4B
$2.61
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
Date
EPS act
EPS est
EPS surp%
Rev surp%
Excess/21d
2026-05-05
$1.37
$1.29
+6.2%
+3.6%
n/a
2026-02-03
$1.53
$1.32
+15.9%
+6.2%
-6.1%
2025-11-04
$1.20
$1.17
+2.6%
+5.6%
-12.3%
2025-08-05
$0.48
$0.48
+0.3%
+3.7%
-10.0%
2025-05-06
$0.96
$0.94
+1.7%
+4.4%
-7.1%
2025-02-04
$1.09
$1.08
+0.9%
+1.7%
+5.0%
2024-10-29
$0.92
$0.92
-0.2%
+1.6%
-12.5%
2024-07-30
$0.69
$0.68
+1.8%
+1.9%
+2.8%
2024-04-30
$0.62
$0.62
+0.6%
-0.1%
+3.1%
2024-01-30
$0.77
$0.77
+0.0%
+9.3%
+0.1%
2023-10-31
$0.70
$0.68
+2.9%
+8.0%
+0.3%
2023-08-01
$0.58
$0.57
+1.8%
+0.9%
-5.0%
2023-05-02
$0.60
$0.56
+7.1%
+1.0%
+23.3%
2023-01-31
$0.69
$0.66
+4.5%
+1.6%
-1.0%
2022-11-01
$0.67
$0.67
+0.0%
-1.5%
+14.1%
2022-08-02
$1.05
$1.03
+1.9%
+0.3%
-6.9%
2022-05-03
$1.13
$0.91
+24.2%
+17.6%
+10.7%
2022-02-01
$0.92
$0.76
+21.1%
+6.7%
-3.6%
2021-10-26
$0.73
$0.67
+9.0%
+5.0%
+18.6%
2021-07-27
$0.63
$0.54
+16.7%
-6.4%
+8.2%
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
AI Advancing 2026 catalysts: first 2nm production CPU (EPYC Venice), MI455X powers Helios rack; r6m +96%, r3m +40%. All three signals align (mech+news+surp).
▼ Bear case
Val_raw only 0.35 (EV/EBITDA 47.8 near top of own-hist range) — stretched valuation; kb_lesson #8: valuation is a damper, not a return source. Was sold on 07-13 at 534; re-entering ~40 pts lower is not a chase, but any pull-back below 470 (stop) should be respected.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▲ bullishnear2026-07-24
Microsoft adopting Helios as a named major customer is a concrete hyperscaler validation; stock sitting 17% below peak while adding the world's largest enterprise cloud operator as customer = bullish divergence vs. price
256-core Zen 6 on TSMC 2nm with 70%+ perf uplift and 16-channel memory exceeded cautious buy-side specs expectations; confirms AMD CPU competitive moat deep into 2027-2028 and sets up Aug 4 earnings with strong product-launch tailwind.
Event could validate AMD EPYC server CPU roadmap and Helios demand — street already pricing strong Q2 (+46% YoY), so execution confirmation matters more than new guidance
Server CPU share climbing to 33% (from 27% YoY) while Zen 6 on TSMC 2nm launches July 22 + Q2 earnings Aug 4; analyst raises suggest street estimates still catching up to actual demand trajectory
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