AMD — Advanced Micro Devices

Price History VALIDATED

50d MA (orange) · 200d MA (purple) · Price (blue)

Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY — slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical

Research notes (read before interpreting):

The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.

Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.

EV/EBITDA 47.8x

65%ile

P/E 80.5x

16%ile

P/S 10.1x

85%ile

FY	EV/EBITDA	P/E	P/S	Revenue	EPS
2025	47.85x	80.52x	10.08x	$34.6B	$2.67
2024	38.27x	123.95x	7.87x	$25.8B	$1.01
2023	57.12x	278.13x	10.49x	$22.7B	$0.53
2022	17.91x	76.20x	4.28x	$23.6B	$0.85
2021	42.10x	55.99x	10.79x	$16.4B	$2.61

Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY

Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.

Date	EPS act	EPS est	EPS surp%	Rev surp%	Excess/21d
2026-05-05	$1.37	$1.29	+6.2%	+3.6%	n/a
2026-02-03	$1.53	$1.32	+15.9%	+6.2%	-6.1%
2025-11-04	$1.20	$1.17	+2.6%	+5.6%	-12.3%
2025-08-05	$0.48	$0.48	+0.3%	+3.7%	-10.0%
2025-05-06	$0.96	$0.94	+1.7%	+4.4%	-7.1%
2025-02-04	$1.09	$1.08	+0.9%	+1.7%	+5.0%
2024-10-29	$0.92	$0.92	-0.2%	+1.6%	-12.5%
2024-07-30	$0.69	$0.68	+1.8%	+1.9%	+2.8%
2024-04-30	$0.62	$0.62	+0.6%	-0.1%	+3.1%
2024-01-30	$0.77	$0.77	+0.0%	+9.3%	+0.1%
2023-10-31	$0.70	$0.68	+2.9%	+8.0%	+0.3%
2023-08-01	$0.58	$0.57	+1.8%	+0.9%	-5.0%
2023-05-02	$0.60	$0.56	+7.1%	+1.0%	+23.3%
2023-01-31	$0.69	$0.66	+4.5%	+1.6%	-1.0%
2022-11-01	$0.67	$0.67	+0.0%	-1.5%	+14.1%
2022-08-02	$1.05	$1.03	+1.9%	+0.3%	-6.9%
2022-05-03	$1.13	$0.91	+24.2%	+17.6%	+10.7%
2022-02-01	$0.92	$0.76	+21.1%	+6.7%	-3.6%
2021-10-26	$0.73	$0.67	+9.0%	+5.0%	+18.6%
2021-07-27	$0.63	$0.54	+16.7%	-6.4%	+8.2%

Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY — how consensus moved after each print

Print	EPS rev%	Rev rev%	PT rev%	Dir	Guidance
2026-08-04	—	—	—	—	raised

Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY

Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.

Model Portfolio Status

Last recorded action: SELL on 2026-08-10 (mech 0.584, news_adj -0.150, surp +0.000)

News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE — UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible

▲ bullish long 2026-08-10

Market sold -8% on slight beat; analysts raise targets to $600-700 range citing Su's 2027 data center doubling—retail sold the headline while institutions bought the dip

source ↗

▼ bearish near 2026-08-06

EPS $1.66 vs $1.62 est and revenue $11.54B vs $11.28B est both beat, yet stock fell 8% in premarket — buy-side whisper was higher; retail bought the beat but institutions priced in a larger guide raise that never came.

source ↗

▲ bullish long 2026-08-05

Clean beat on EPS (+3.2%) and revenue (+2%); Q3 guide implies 46% YoY growth and 9% sequential; Helios AI racks and Venice CPUs expanding data center TAM; momentum clear.

source ↗

▲ bullish near 2026-08-03

Street at $11.3B / $1.61 EPS but three major analysts just raised PTs to $600-625 implying buy-side bar is higher; positive Earnings ESP and most accurate estimate above consensus; risk: stock already up 160% YTD and -8.4% last Monday on AI ROI fears means a Q3 guidance slip could override a beat.

source ↗

▲ bullish near 2026-07-29

Multiple street upgrades on the day stock dropped 8.4% creates expectations compression; consensus EPS $1.61 (+235% YoY) likely beatable given EPYC server share gains; retail sold macro fear, analysts bought the story

source ↗

Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat

Consensus PT

$602.59

-4.4% from current

Median PT

$635.00

High PT

$1,250.00

Low PT

$260.00

Current

$630.63

Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.

⚠ Deterioration Alerts

Date	Type	Severity	Detail
2026-08-05	deterioration	medium	Condition: (a) -7.04% drop
2026-07-29	deterioration	medium	Condition (a): change_pct=-5.51%
2026-07-28	price_drop	high	Condition 1: -8.15% single-day drop
2026-07-27	deterioration	medium	[drop -5.17%] Condition: (a) large intraday move
2026-07-16	deterioration	medium	condition: sharp drop -5.33%

Advanced Micro Devices AMD