Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2025 |
15.28x |
31.66x |
3.43x |
$716.9B |
$7.29 |
| 2024 |
18.98x |
38.76x |
3.60x |
$638.0B |
$5.66 |
| 2023 |
18.21x |
51.51x |
2.72x |
$574.8B |
$2.95 |
| 2022 |
24.56x |
neg |
1.67x |
$514.0B |
$-0.27 |
| 2021 |
23.76x |
50.52x |
3.59x |
$469.8B |
$3.30 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-04-29 |
$2.78 |
$1.63 |
+70.6% |
+2.4% |
-17.9% |
| 2026-02-05 |
$1.95 |
$1.97 |
-1.0% |
+0.9% |
+0.4% |
| 2025-10-30 |
$1.95 |
$1.57 |
+24.2% |
+1.3% |
+2.9% |
| 2025-07-31 |
$1.68 |
$1.31 |
+28.2% |
+3.7% |
+4.6% |
| 2025-05-01 |
$1.59 |
$1.37 |
+16.1% |
+0.3% |
-12.7% |
| 2025-02-06 |
$1.86 |
$1.49 |
+24.8% |
+0.2% |
+4.5% |
| 2024-10-31 |
$1.43 |
$1.14 |
+25.4% |
+1.0% |
-3.9% |
| 2024-08-01 |
$1.26 |
$1.03 |
+22.3% |
-0.5% |
+0.6% |
| 2024-04-30 |
$0.98 |
$0.83 |
+18.1% |
+0.5% |
-14.0% |
| 2024-02-01 |
$1.00 |
$0.80 |
+25.0% |
+2.3% |
-15.9% |
| 2023-10-26 |
$0.94 |
$0.58 |
+62.1% |
+7.3% |
-0.2% |
| 2023-08-03 |
$0.65 |
$0.35 |
+85.7% |
+12.4% |
-3.5% |
| 2023-04-27 |
$0.31 |
$0.21 |
+47.6% |
+2.3% |
-3.3% |
| 2023-02-02 |
$0.21 |
$0.15 |
+40.0% |
+2.4% |
-4.8% |
| 2022-10-27 |
$0.20 |
$0.22 |
-9.1% |
-0.2% |
-16.3% |
| 2022-07-28 |
$0.10 |
$0.15 |
-33.3% |
+1.9% |
+0.1% |
| 2022-04-28 |
$0.21 |
$0.44 |
-52.3% |
-0.0% |
-6.1% |
| 2022-02-03 |
$1.39 |
$0.19 |
+631.6% |
-0.2% |
-5.9% |
| 2021-10-28 |
$0.31 |
$0.45 |
-31.1% |
-19.5% |
-2.8% |
| 2021-07-29 |
$0.76 |
$0.62 |
+22.6% |
+1.3% |
+1.0% |
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY
— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
● neutral
near
2026-07-28
BofA estimate raise (July 27) lifted the buy-side bar for AWS even further; market watching whether Amazon can beat the 33% AWS growth whisper AND maintain capex guidance without triggering another GOOGL-style selloff; FCF was already under pressure with $43.2B Q1 capex.
source ↗
● neutral
near
2026-07-27
Street raising estimates pre-print pushes whisper above published $196B consensus — sets higher bar but also signals fundamental momentum; AWS beat likely but market reaction depends on Q3 guide and capex commentary
source ↗
▲ bullish
near
2026-07-21
AWS Q1 at 28% materially beat expectations, validating $200B capex plan; FCF collapse is real but expected by market — if AWS Q2 holds at 25%+, stock should re-rate; deceleration below 25% is the risk
source ↗
▲ bullish
near
2026-07-17
EPS beat consensus by 26% ($1.68 vs $1.33) - even if buy-side whisper was higher, a 26% earnings beat is materially positive; cloud/AWS and advertising likely drivers; retail may not have appreciated magnitude of the beat
source ↗
▲ bullish
near
2026-07-16
AWS re-acceleration (28% vs ~20% prior quarters) materially above expectations; $364B backlog excludes $100B+ Anthropic deal; Q2 Prime Day in June adds near-term catalyst; bull case intact heading into July 30 earnings despite FCF headwind from $200B capex
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$312.79
+35.5% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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