Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2025 |
37.68x |
46.96x |
18.30x |
$9.0B |
$2.79 |
| 2024 |
40.91x |
48.69x |
19.83x |
$7.0B |
$2.27 |
| 2023 |
28.45x |
34.84x |
12.43x |
$5.9B |
$1.69 |
| 2022 |
22.24x |
27.58x |
8.49x |
$4.4B |
$1.10 |
| 2021 |
44.33x |
52.09x |
14.95x |
$2.9B |
$0.69 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-05-05 |
$0.87 |
$0.81 |
+7.7% |
+3.4% |
n/a |
| 2026-02-12 |
$0.82 |
$0.76 |
+8.2% |
+4.3% |
-7.1% |
| 2025-11-04 |
$0.75 |
$0.72 |
+4.5% |
+1.9% |
-5.7% |
| 2025-08-05 |
$0.73 |
$0.65 |
+12.5% |
+4.6% |
+0.3% |
| 2025-05-06 |
$0.65 |
$0.59 |
+10.2% |
+1.9% |
-10.4% |
| 2025-02-18 |
$0.65 |
$0.57 |
+14.6% |
+1.5% |
-3.8% |
| 2024-11-07 |
$2.40 |
$2.08 |
+15.4% |
-0.1% |
+2.8% |
| 2024-07-29 |
$2.10 |
$1.95 |
+7.7% |
+2.1% |
+6.4% |
| 2024-05-06 |
$1.99 |
$1.74 |
+14.4% |
+1.3% |
+0.4% |
| 2024-02-12 |
$2.08 |
$1.70 |
+22.4% |
+0.4% |
-7.3% |
| 2023-10-30 |
$1.83 |
$1.58 |
+15.8% |
+2.0% |
-3.8% |
| 2023-07-31 |
$1.58 |
$1.44 |
+9.7% |
+5.9% |
+2.0% |
| 2023-05-01 |
$1.43 |
$1.34 |
+6.7% |
+3.5% |
+2.7% |
| 2023-02-13 |
$1.41 |
$1.21 |
+16.5% |
+6.2% |
+19.4% |
| 2022-10-31 |
$1.25 |
$1.04 |
+20.2% |
+10.9% |
-1.7% |
| 2022-08-01 |
$1.08 |
$0.91 |
+18.7% |
+7.5% |
+8.2% |
| 2022-05-02 |
$0.84 |
$0.81 |
+3.7% |
+2.4% |
-9.1% |
| 2022-02-14 |
$0.82 |
$0.73 |
+12.3% |
+4.3% |
+1.5% |
| 2021-11-01 |
$0.74 |
$0.68 |
+8.8% |
+1.4% |
-4.0% |
| 2021-08-02 |
$0.68 |
$0.64 |
+6.3% |
+3.8% |
-5.5% |
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY
— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-23
1.6Tbps switch launched ahead of consensus-expected timeline with three simultaneous hyperscaler deployments (Meta, MSFT, Oracle) — buy-side had modeled sequential adoption; surprise breadth of customer wins re-rates ANET as the AI networking backbone.
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-21
Beat on revenue + guide raise + new 1.6T product — three-part catalyst clearly exceeded expectations; multiple banks raised targets to $200-210 post-announcement
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-17
1.6Tbps switch with hyperscaler tri-vendor validation (Meta, MSFT, ORCL) exceeded market expectations on both product cycle timing and ecosystem buy-in; +7% single-day move on a product launch signals market was underestimating next-gen switching cycle
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-14
New flagship AI switch plus multiple target raises on the front-end refresh cycle; catalyst clears the prior bar with named hyperscaler deployments.
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-06-24
Management raised both total revenue and AI-specific revenue targets above prior guidance — a double upside revision; KeyBanc $200 and Morgan Stanley $190 PT raises followed, reflecting Street catching up to fundamentals.
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$186.67
+10.0% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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