Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2026 |
112.53x |
177.98x |
32.62x |
$4.9B |
$0.85 |
| 2025 |
122.27x |
142.39x |
27.98x |
$4.0B |
$0.75 |
| 2024 |
344.11x |
423.03x |
40.33x |
$3.2B |
$0.30 |
| 2023 |
72.51x |
119.12x |
23.27x |
$2.7B |
$0.51 |
| 2022 |
0.00x |
112.50x |
23.06x |
$2.7B |
$0.54 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-05-06 |
$0.60 |
$0.58 |
+3.4% |
+1.1% |
n/a |
| 2026-02-04 |
$0.43 |
$0.41 |
+4.9% |
+1.2% |
-1.9% |
| 2025-11-05 |
$0.15 |
$0.33 |
-54.4% |
+1.6% |
-11.7% |
| 2025-07-30 |
$0.35 |
$0.35 |
+0.3% |
-0.8% |
-0.8% |
| 2025-05-07 |
$0.55 |
$0.53 |
+4.8% |
+16.9% |
-5.3% |
| 2025-02-05 |
$0.40 |
$0.34 |
+17.0% |
-19.9% |
-10.5% |
| 2024-11-06 |
$0.10 |
$0.25 |
-60.0% |
+4.4% |
-11.7% |
| 2024-07-31 |
$0.40 |
$0.34 |
+17.0% |
+16.3% |
+4.3% |
| 2024-05-08 |
$0.36 |
$0.30 |
+19.6% |
+7.2% |
+25.8% |
| 2024-02-07 |
$0.29 |
$0.25 |
+17.3% |
+8.1% |
-1.0% |
| 2023-11-08 |
$0.36 |
$0.26 |
+40.9% |
+9.0% |
+15.3% |
| 2023-09-14 |
$0.10 |
— |
— |
— |
-15.4% |
| 2023-03-31 |
$0.00 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2022-12-31 |
$0.18 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2022-09-30 |
$0.11 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2022-06-30 |
$0.22 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
● neutral
long
2026-08-12
Earnings beat expectations but broad analyst PT reductions signal prior bar embedded peak-multiple assumptions; AGI CPU order book ($2B+) is real but not yet converting to royalties at current royalty rates.
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-08-05
Beat on key metrics + guidance raise; $2B+ AGI CPU customer commitments give multi-year revenue visibility; analyst fair value raised to $417 from $345; agentic AI and server CPU TAM expansion are structural drivers.
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-07-31
Classic buy-side bar trap: stock entered 46% below June highs so consensus appeared low, but investors wanted guidance acceleration not flat sequential Q2 guide — double beat met with -8% selloff
source ↗
▲ bullish
near
2026-07-30
Record Q1 print against a backdrop where stock had collapsed 46% from June highs — market had priced in catastrophe; record royalty + licensing revenue and $25B long-range target exceeded depressed street expectations, setting up relief rally
source ↗
● neutral
near
2026-07-23
With stock nearly at consensus target, the bar is essentially priced for perfection; Wells Fargo flagging "tough setup" means buy-side expects very strong results — even an in-line print could disappoint.
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$363.15
+17.0% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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