Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2025 |
27.63x |
36.82x |
10.83x |
$32.7B |
$24.73 |
| 2024 |
25.24x |
34.77x |
9.31x |
$28.3B |
$19.25 |
| 2023 |
25.39x |
33.16x |
9.27x |
$27.6B |
$19.56 |
| 2022 |
28.19x |
36.95x |
9.58x |
$21.2B |
$13.81 |
| 2021 |
39.67x |
46.77x |
15.42x |
$18.6B |
$14.97 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-04-15 |
$8.37 |
$7.72 |
+8.4% |
+2.4% |
-7.7% |
| 2026-01-28 |
$8.55 |
$9.04 |
-5.4% |
+3.8% |
-3.9% |
| 2025-07-16 |
$4.55 |
$5.94 |
-23.4% |
+2.5% |
-4.6% |
| 2025-04-16 |
$6.31 |
$6.12 |
+3.1% |
-4.8% |
-17.5% |
| 2025-01-29 |
$7.30 |
$7.41 |
-1.5% |
+25.9% |
+6.9% |
| 2024-07-17 |
$4.36 |
$4.06 |
+7.4% |
-6.1% |
+3.7% |
| 2024-04-17 |
$3.31 |
$3.00 |
+10.3% |
-3.3% |
-6.9% |
| 2024-01-24 |
$5.64 |
$5.18 |
+8.9% |
+7.0% |
-1.9% |
| 2023-10-18 |
$5.10 |
$4.86 |
+4.9% |
-2.1% |
+6.7% |
| 2023-07-19 |
$5.49 |
$5.06 |
+8.5% |
+1.7% |
-1.3% |
| 2023-04-19 |
$5.74 |
$4.81 |
+19.3% |
+7.3% |
+1.2% |
| 2023-01-25 |
$5.11 |
$4.84 |
+5.6% |
+2.2% |
-5.6% |
| 2022-10-19 |
$4.25 |
$3.94 |
+7.9% |
+2.8% |
+20.1% |
| 2022-07-20 |
$3.85 |
$3.89 |
-1.0% |
+2.5% |
-5.9% |
| 2022-04-20 |
$3.59 |
$1.89 |
+89.9% |
+1.3% |
-6.9% |
| 2022-01-19 |
$5.67 |
$4.83 |
+17.4% |
-4.9% |
-4.8% |
| 2021-10-20 |
$5.84 |
$5.58 |
+4.7% |
-4.2% |
-2.1% |
| 2021-07-21 |
$3.58 |
$3.45 |
+3.8% |
-24.9% |
+8.0% |
| 2021-04-21 |
$4.66 |
$3.64 |
+28.0% |
+62.9% |
n/a |
| 2021-01-20 |
$4.68 |
$3.70 |
+26.5% |
+30.3% |
n/a |
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▲ bullish
long
2026-08-07
Second guidance raise of 2026 to €43-45B far exceeds original €36-40B consensus; gross margin 54% beat; AI Logic and Memory demand accelerating beyond prior roadmap — market had not fully priced in pace of EUV demand recovery after prior China headwinds
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-08-05
Beat + guidance raise in July; 53% EPS growth projected for full 2026; AI chip demand driving 75% surge in memory-related ASML tool sales; avg analyst target $2,126 vs current ~$1,641 implies 30% upside; no new Aug catalysts but July print remains constructive.
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-07-31
Beat plus second guidance raise of 2026 yet stock fell 11% in July — market is re-rating the multiple as investors debate whether AI capex cycle is at peak; fundamental demand is strong, sentiment is the headwind
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-24
Retail trap: stock fell despite raising annual guidance twice in one year—market read 'stock down = bad' when every data point (monopoly EUV, AI chip capex cycle) screams long-term structural strength; export controls are the real risk, not fundamentals
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-21
Options had priced 8.36% post-earnings swing — beat + raise exceeded that bar; Bernstein raised target to $2,623, BofA to $2,345; EUV monopoly and HBM capacity expansion demand are durable tailwinds vs expectations
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$2,305.75
+32.2% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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