Stock Demon Overview Strategy Portfolio Earnings Digest Health Architecture Private cockpit · Not investment advice
foundry ▲ HELD

ASML Holding ASML

Price
$1,582.95
-4.4% today
Mkt Cap
$610.1B
Beta
1.39
52w Range
68%
pos in 52w lo→hi
RVOL
1.49
First trade
2021-06-01
Price History VALIDATED
50d MA (orange) · 200d MA (purple) · Price (blue)
Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY — slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
  • The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
  • Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA 27.4x
15%ile
P/E 36.8x
21%ile
P/S 10.8x
25%ile
FYEV/EBITDAP/EP/SRevenueEPS
2025 27.37x 36.82x 10.83x $32.7B $24.73
2024 25.24x 34.77x 9.31x $28.3B $19.25
2023 25.39x 33.16x 9.27x $27.6B $19.56
2022 28.19x 36.95x 9.58x $21.2B $13.81
2021 39.67x 46.77x 15.42x $18.6B $14.97
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
DateEPS actEPS estEPS surp% Rev surp%Excess/21d
2026-04-15 $8.37 $7.72 +8.4% +2.4% -7.7%
2026-01-28 $8.55 $9.04 -5.4% +3.8% -3.9%
2025-07-16 $4.55 $5.94 -23.4% +2.5% -4.6%
2025-04-16 $6.31 $6.12 +3.1% -4.8% -17.5%
2025-01-29 $7.30 $7.41 -1.5% +25.9% +6.9%
2024-07-17 $4.36 $4.06 +7.4% -6.1% +3.7%
2024-04-17 $3.31 $3.00 +10.3% -3.3% -6.9%
2024-01-24 $5.64 $5.18 +8.9% +7.0% -1.9%
2023-10-18 $5.10 $4.86 +4.9% -2.1% +6.7%
2023-07-19 $5.49 $5.06 +8.5% +1.7% -1.3%
2023-04-19 $5.74 $4.81 +19.3% +7.3% +1.2%
2023-01-25 $5.11 $4.84 +5.6% +2.2% -5.6%
2022-10-19 $4.25 $3.94 +7.9% +2.8% +20.1%
2022-07-20 $3.85 $3.89 -1.0% +2.5% -5.9%
2022-04-20 $3.59 $1.89 +89.9% +1.3% -6.9%
2022-01-19 $5.67 $4.83 +17.4% -4.9% -4.8%
2021-10-20 $5.84 $5.58 +4.7% -4.2% -2.1%
2021-07-21 $3.58 $3.45 +3.8% -24.9% +8.0%
2021-04-21 $4.66 $3.64 +28.0% +62.9% n/a
2021-01-20 $4.68 $3.70 +26.5% +30.3% n/a
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY — how consensus moved after each print
PrintEPS rev%Rev rev%PT rev%DirGuidance
2026-07-15 — — — — raised
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
Model Portfolio Status HELD
Weight
12.5%
Entry
$1,655.26
2026-07-27
Stop
$1,572.50
P&L
-4.4%
Opened score
0.854
Score decomposition (2026-07-27)
Mech 0.704 VALIDATED News adj +0.150 UNPROVEN LIVE Surprise adj +0.000 COMMODITY
▲ Bull case
Multi-signal alignment: beat + raised guide + cheap own-hist valuation; AI/HBM demand cited; range_pos 0.74 not stretched.
▼ Bear case
Semi-equip cyclicality + export-control tail risk (China); shares fell post-report despite beat (buyer's remorse signal). Single-name choke-point risk in EUV.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE — UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▲ bullish long 2026-07-24
Retail trap: stock fell despite raising annual guidance twice in one year—market read 'stock down = bad' when every data point (monopoly EUV, AI chip capex cycle) screams long-term structural strength; export controls are the real risk, not fundamentals
source ↗
▲ bullish long 2026-07-21
Options had priced 8.36% post-earnings swing — beat + raise exceeded that bar; Bernstein raised target to $2,623, BofA to $2,345; EUV monopoly and HBM capacity expansion demand are durable tailwinds vs expectations
source ↗
▲ bullish long 2026-07-17
Second guidance raise of 2026 to 43-45B vs prior 36-40B is objectively bullish; shares fell intraday suggesting buy-side was positioned for even stronger H2 color or higher orders - classic retail trap where headline (shares fall) contradicts fundamental read (guide up sharply)
source ↗
● neutral long 2026-07-16
Fundamental beat was clear (revenue +6% vs est, profits +11% vs est, guidance raised second time) yet stock declined—market pricing in valuation stretch at ~50x forward PE vs Morningstar fair value 35-40x; China DUV restriction risk adds overhang; retail trap: headlines bullish, stock sold
source ↗
▲ bullish long 2026-07-15
Revenue beat by ~6% and guidance raised second time this year — new midpoint 44B EUR vs old midpoint 38B EUR is a 16% raise, far exceeding what analysts expected; stock reaction understated the magnitude of the upward revision.
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$2,305.75
+45.7% from current
Median PT
$2,300.00
High PT
$2,623.00
Low PT
$2,000.00
Current
$1,582.95
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
⚠ Deterioration Alerts
DateTypeSeverityDetail
2026-07-28 price_drop high Condition 1: -4.37% single-day drop
2026-07-27 deterioration medium [drop -5.80%] Condition: (a) large intraday move
2026-06-23 deterioration medium Condition: (a) -7.82% drop