Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2025 |
50.62x |
73.84x |
26.74x |
$63.9B |
$4.91 |
| 2024 |
35.08x |
132.72x |
15.11x |
$51.6B |
$1.27 |
| 2023 |
18.23x |
24.82x |
9.75x |
$35.8B |
$3.39 |
| 2022 |
11.48x |
17.16x |
5.79x |
$33.2B |
$2.74 |
| 2021 |
16.65x |
33.64x |
7.89x |
$27.4B |
$1.57 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-03-04 |
$2.05 |
$2.03 |
+1.0% |
+0.3% |
-7.9% |
| 2025-12-11 |
$1.95 |
$1.87 |
+4.3% |
+3.1% |
-11.5% |
| 2025-09-04 |
$1.69 |
$1.66 |
+1.8% |
+0.8% |
-21.4% |
| 2025-06-05 |
$1.58 |
$1.57 |
+0.6% |
+0.3% |
+2.1% |
| 2025-03-06 |
$1.60 |
$1.51 |
+6.0% |
+2.1% |
-4.0% |
| 2024-12-12 |
$1.42 |
$1.38 |
+2.9% |
-0.1% |
-0.0% |
| 2024-09-05 |
$1.24 |
$1.22 |
+1.6% |
+0.7% |
+5.6% |
| 2024-06-12 |
$1.10 |
$1.09 |
+0.9% |
+3.6% |
-3.8% |
| 2024-03-07 |
$1.10 |
$1.04 |
+6.1% |
+1.4% |
-0.1% |
| 2023-12-07 |
$1.11 |
$1.10 |
+0.9% |
-1.2% |
+8.4% |
| 2023-08-31 |
$1.05 |
$1.04 |
+1.0% |
-4.3% |
+1.4% |
| 2023-06-01 |
$1.03 |
$1.01 |
+2.0% |
+0.3% |
+1.9% |
| 2023-03-02 |
$1.03 |
$1.02 |
+1.0% |
+0.2% |
-1.8% |
| 2022-12-08 |
$1.05 |
$1.03 |
+1.9% |
+0.3% |
+4.3% |
| 2022-09-01 |
$0.97 |
$0.96 |
+1.0% |
+0.6% |
+0.9% |
| 2022-05-26 |
$0.91 |
$0.87 |
+4.6% |
+2.4% |
-2.7% |
| 2022-03-03 |
$0.84 |
$0.82 |
+2.4% |
+1.3% |
+0.7% |
| 2021-12-09 |
$0.78 |
$0.78 |
+0.0% |
-2.3% |
-2.0% |
| 2021-09-02 |
$0.70 |
$0.69 |
+1.4% |
+5.4% |
+4.0% |
| 2021-06-03 |
$0.66 |
$0.64 |
+3.1% |
+1.6% |
-2.5% |
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▼ bearish
near
2026-07-28
Selloff is sector-wide valuation compression, not fundamental — Q2 showed 48% revenue growth and 143% AI growth — but market is repricing AI capex hangover risk; expectations now entering Aug 4 earnings on lowered bar, which is a setup improvement vs. the June peak.
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-24
Q3 guidance of $29.4B well above pre-guide consensus; AI revenue tripling sequentially—not just YoY—signals demand acceleration beyond what most sell-side models assumed; $100B+ FY27 AI target anchors long-duration bull case
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-21
Beat on both metrics with an 84% YoY Q3 guide — reiteration of $100B AI semi guide (not raise) was the only mild miss; overall beat vs expectations was clear
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-21
Multi-year visibility into high-performance compute silicon with Apple reduces revenue concentration risk — structurally positive vs expectations of partnership renewal uncertainty
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-17
AI semi revenue +143% YoY already beat elevated expectations; Apple $30B deal locks in long-term revenue visibility that was not in consensus models - structural demand confirmation, not just beat-and-guide in line
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$499.40
+31.1% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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