Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2025 |
23.13x |
47.74x |
4.33x |
$25.5B |
$7.40 |
| 2024 |
10.88x |
18.80x |
2.99x |
$23.6B |
$11.90 |
| 2023 |
11.05x |
23.28x |
1.52x |
$24.9B |
$5.02 |
| 2022 |
11.51x |
neg |
1.16x |
$24.4B |
$-0.49 |
| 2021 |
5.62x |
neg |
0.70x |
$19.6B |
$-0.63 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-05-11 |
$2.74 |
$2.54 |
+7.9% |
+31.5% |
n/a |
| 2026-02-24 |
$2.30 |
$2.28 |
+0.9% |
+8.4% |
-3.0% |
| 2025-11-07 |
$3.04 |
$3.11 |
-2.3% |
+5.9% |
+0.6% |
| 2025-08-07 |
$1.91 |
$1.84 |
+3.8% |
+24.4% |
-13.9% |
| 2025-05-06 |
$2.14 |
$2.18 |
-1.8% |
+22.1% |
-11.5% |
| 2025-02-18 |
$2.44 |
$2.16 |
+13.0% |
-18.0% |
-15.4% |
| 2024-11-04 |
$2.74 |
$2.66 |
+3.0% |
+14.6% |
-1.0% |
| 2024-08-06 |
$1.68 |
$1.71 |
-1.8% |
-1.4% |
-6.7% |
| 2024-05-09 |
$1.82 |
$1.30 |
+40.0% |
-6.9% |
-6.9% |
| 2024-02-27 |
$-0.11 |
$1.80 |
-106.1% |
-25.1% |
-1.8% |
| 2023-11-06 |
$2.26 |
$1.42 |
+59.2% |
-8.8% |
-14.3% |
| 2023-08-03 |
$2.56 |
$0.73 |
+250.7% |
-18.6% |
+0.2% |
| 2023-05-04 |
$0.29 |
$0.88 |
-67.0% |
+66.8% |
-5.8% |
| 2023-02-16 |
$0.10 |
$1.24 |
-91.9% |
+24.7% |
-9.5% |
| 2022-11-08 |
$-0.57 |
$0.76 |
-175.0% |
+54.4% |
-5.3% |
| 2022-08-04 |
$-0.34 |
$0.64 |
-153.1% |
+50.0% |
+22.0% |
| 2022-05-12 |
$0.32 |
$0.70 |
-54.3% |
+14.3% |
+7.7% |
| 2022-02-25 |
$0.13 |
$1.19 |
-89.1% |
+144.3% |
+16.9% |
| 2021-09-30 |
$1.86 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2021-06-30 |
$-0.19 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY
— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▼ bearish
near
2026-07-23
CEG was a consensus "nuclear power for data centers" long in 2025; Citi downgrade + PJM meeting spooked a crowded trade — retail bought the AI power narrative, buy-side is reducing on regulatory/overhang risk.
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-21
Guidance reaffirmation + dividend raise + SMR strategic investment combo exceeds expectations; 16 of 22 analysts Strong Buy with zero Sells — nuclear power for AI data centers is one of the cleaner consensus longs
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-07-20
NY moratorium on new hyperscale data centers is a direct negative for near-term power demand; adds to Citi's $297 Neutral cut vs MS $364 Overweight — genuine analyst disagreement on how much data center electricity demand gets redirected vs. suppressed.
source ↗
● neutral
long
2026-07-16
PJM auction win is positive (secures future revenue) but Citi cut to $297 vs Morgan Stanley $364 shows wide analyst divergence; stock -25% YTD with 34% upside to avg target—market expectations have reset lower despite operational strength, leaving room for re-rating if nuclear power demand from AI data centers accelerates
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-14
Calpine deal adds gas/geothermal diversification to nuclear base; combined portfolio positions CEG as premier AI data center power provider at scale no peer can match — deal exceeded market structural expectations.
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$352.89
+35.8% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
Stock Demon
Overview
Strategy
Portfolio
Earnings
Digest
Health
Architecture
Private cockpit · Not investment advice