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Ciena CIEN

Price
$350.51
-7.1% today
Mkt Cap
$49.6B
Beta
1.27
52w Range
48%
pos in 52w lo→hi
RVOL
1.55
First trade
2021-06-01
Price History VALIDATED
50d MA (orange) · 200d MA (purple) · Price (blue)
Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY — slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
  • The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
  • Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA 70.8x
100%ile
P/E 218.3x
100%ile
P/S 5.7x
100%ile
FYEV/EBITDAP/EP/SRevenueEPS
2025 70.81x 218.30x 5.66x $4.8B $0.87
2024 28.29x 110.29x 2.31x $4.0B $0.58
2023 12.09x 23.99x 1.39x $4.4B $1.71
2022 19.93x 47.77x 2.01x $3.6B $1.01
2021 12.47x 16.86x 2.33x $3.6B $3.22
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
DateEPS actEPS estEPS surp% Rev surp%Excess/21d
2026-03-05 $1.35 $1.17 +15.4% +2.0% +45.1%
2025-12-11 $0.91 $0.78 +16.7% +4.7% +3.2%
2025-09-04 $0.67 $0.53 +26.4% +3.8% +9.8%
2025-06-05 $0.42 $0.52 -18.9% +3.0% -1.4%
2025-03-11 $0.64 $0.41 +54.7% +1.9% -0.4%
2024-12-12 $0.54 $0.66 -18.2% +1.9% -8.4%
2024-09-04 $0.35 $0.27 +30.2% +1.3% +8.8%
2024-06-06 $0.27 $0.16 +72.9% +1.5% -8.3%
2024-03-07 $0.66 $0.47 +40.4% +1.7% -14.2%
2023-12-07 $0.75 $0.69 +8.7% +3.2% +3.4%
2023-08-31 $0.59 $0.53 +11.3% +2.3% +3.8%
2023-06-06 $0.74 $0.60 +23.3% +4.1% -5.3%
2023-03-06 $0.64 $0.36 +77.8% +10.1% +2.7%
2022-12-08 $0.61 $0.08 +662.5% +14.3% -0.9%
2022-09-01 $0.33 $0.35 -5.7% -4.0% +1.8%
2022-06-02 $0.50 $0.54 -7.4% -0.2% +8.4%
2022-03-07 $0.47 $0.47 +0.0% -1.1% -4.6%
2021-12-09 $0.85 $0.85 +0.0% +16.4% +0.3%
2021-09-02 $0.92 $0.79 +16.5% +21.1% -2.2%
2021-06-03 $0.62 $0.48 +29.2% +0.6% -5.9%
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY — how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
Model Portfolio Status
Not in model portfolio.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE — UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
No news recorded yet.
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$493.42
+40.8% from current
Median PT
$499.00
High PT
$650.00
Low PT
$330.00
Current
$350.51
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
⚠ Deterioration Alerts
DateTypeSeverityDetail
2026-07-28 price_drop high Condition 1: -7.09% single-day drop
2026-07-24 deterioration medium Condition: (a) -4.07% single-day drop
2026-07-16 deterioration medium condition: sharp drop -7.09%
2026-07-15 price_drop medium Large drop: -6.37% (condition a: change_pct ≤ -4%)
2026-06-04 deterioration high Day: -13.66%, RVOL: 2.82, 52w-pos: 0.82. Conditions: (a) sharp drop, (b) volume spike with negative return, (d) 13.66% drop from prior snapshot