Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2025 |
15.19x |
neg |
2.38x |
$5.8B |
$-0.52 |
| 2024 |
20.56x |
neg |
2.34x |
$4.7B |
$-1.84 |
| 2023 |
17.42x |
neg |
1.36x |
$5.2B |
$-2.93 |
| 2022 |
7.63x |
32.45x |
1.63x |
$3.3B |
$1.57 |
| 2021 |
11.59x |
29.04x |
2.57x |
$3.1B |
$2.50 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-05-06 |
$1.41 |
$1.41 |
+0.0% |
+1.3% |
n/a |
| 2026-02-04 |
$1.29 |
$1.21 |
+6.6% |
+2.7% |
+12.6% |
| 2025-11-05 |
$1.16 |
$1.04 |
+11.5% |
+1.7% |
+16.7% |
| 2025-08-13 |
$1.00 |
$0.92 |
+8.7% |
-1.2% |
+5.9% |
| 2025-05-07 |
$0.91 |
$0.86 |
+6.3% |
-0.2% |
-9.2% |
| 2025-02-05 |
$0.95 |
$0.69 |
+37.7% |
+4.8% |
-17.4% |
| 2024-11-06 |
$0.74 |
$0.61 |
+20.7% |
+2.6% |
-9.4% |
| 2024-08-15 |
$0.61 |
$0.60 |
+1.7% |
+3.0% |
+1.0% |
| 2024-05-06 |
$0.53 |
$0.43 |
+23.6% |
-5.3% |
+11.6% |
| 2024-02-05 |
$0.36 |
$0.23 |
+56.5% |
-3.5% |
-9.8% |
| 2023-11-06 |
$0.16 |
$0.12 |
+33.3% |
-1.8% |
+16.6% |
| 2023-08-15 |
$0.41 |
$0.38 |
+7.9% |
+3.4% |
-4.1% |
| 2023-05-10 |
$0.58 |
$0.81 |
-28.4% |
+8.0% |
+18.3% |
| 2023-02-08 |
$0.95 |
$0.93 |
+2.2% |
-0.1% |
-7.0% |
| 2022-11-09 |
$1.04 |
$0.83 |
+25.3% |
— |
-0.3% |
| 2022-08-24 |
$0.98 |
$0.95 |
+3.2% |
— |
-12.3% |
| 2022-05-10 |
$0.95 |
$0.86 |
+10.5% |
+13.3% |
-8.8% |
| 2022-02-09 |
$0.92 |
$0.87 |
+5.7% |
-1.3% |
+2.6% |
| 2021-11-09 |
$0.87 |
$0.83 |
+4.8% |
-1.7% |
-0.6% |
| 2021-08-10 |
$0.88 |
$0.76 |
+15.8% |
+0.0% |
-4.5% |
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY
— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-24
PT raise to $435 implies meaningful step-up in analyst conviction; co-packaged optics is structural upgrade cycle for AI networking that sell-side was slow to fully model
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-14
Raymond James upgrade reflects conviction that co-packaged optics is moving from prototype to volume ahead of street consensus timing; AI infra build-out sustains demand well above prior models.
source ↗
● neutral
near
2026-06-24
Strong fundamental momentum (transceiver demand, CHIPS Act funding) drove stock through consensus PT of $385 to $425 — technically stretched relative to where analysts are; CHIPS Act $50M LOI is a modest positive not yet in models.
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-06-05
Q4 guide above consensus EPS was the catalyst; datacenter + comms now 75% of sales and multiple analysts raised targets to $370-$425 range
source ↗
▲ bullish
near
2026-06-04
Q4 EPS midpoint $1.62 exceeded street modestly; but the re-rating was driven by Computex-week AI infrastructure momentum and long-term agreements vs. already-high expectations
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$349.50
+43.6% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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