Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 7-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2026 |
62.25x |
69.58x |
24.66x |
$1.3B |
$2.65 |
| 2025 |
91.02x |
138.87x |
16.51x |
$437M |
$0.31 |
| 2024 |
-120.70x |
neg |
14.36x |
$193M |
$-0.18 |
| 2023 |
-118.09x |
neg |
6.48x |
$184M |
$-0.11 |
| 2022 |
-94.81x |
neg |
14.78x |
$106M |
$-0.16 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-06-01 |
$1.16 |
$1.03 |
+12.6% |
+1.2% |
n/a |
| 2026-03-02 |
$1.07 |
$0.91 |
+17.3% |
+0.2% |
-3.7% |
| 2025-12-01 |
$0.67 |
$0.49 |
+36.2% |
+14.1% |
-26.7% |
| 2025-09-03 |
$0.52 |
$0.36 |
+43.9% |
+17.0% |
-13.1% |
| 2025-06-02 |
$0.35 |
$0.27 |
+27.8% |
+6.5% |
+17.5% |
| 2025-03-04 |
$0.25 |
$0.18 |
+38.9% |
-1.0% |
-3.6% |
| 2024-12-02 |
$0.07 |
$0.05 |
+40.0% |
+7.8% |
+1.7% |
| 2024-09-04 |
$0.04 |
$0.04 |
-2.2% |
-10.6% |
+3.8% |
| 2024-05-29 |
$0.07 |
$0.05 |
+35.1% |
-0.1% |
+16.9% |
| 2024-02-27 |
$0.04 |
$0.03 |
+30.0% |
+2.0% |
-14.5% |
| 2023-11-29 |
$0.01 |
$0.00 |
+509.8% |
+3.1% |
-2.4% |
| 2023-08-24 |
$-0.03 |
$-0.03 |
-3.2% |
-13.0% |
-3.8% |
| 2023-05-31 |
$-0.04 |
$-0.04 |
-3.9% |
+2.9% |
-3.8% |
| 2023-03-01 |
$0.05 |
$0.04 |
+28.6% |
+74.0% |
-13.7% |
| 2022-11-30 |
$0.02 |
$0.03 |
-37.0% |
+1.2% |
-1.8% |
| 2022-08-31 |
$0.03 |
$0.03 |
+4.8% |
+1.7% |
-3.4% |
| 2022-06-01 |
$0.02 |
$0.00 |
+1685.7% |
+3.2% |
+4.8% |
| 2022-03-10 |
$-0.00 |
— |
— |
— |
-16.9% |
| 2022-03-09 |
$0.03 |
$0.01 |
+331.0% |
-10.9% |
-18.1% |
| 2021-07-31 |
$-0.09 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▲ bullish
long
2026-08-12
Mid-quarter upward guidance revision of $60-70M is unusual and signals demand tracking above management’s own prior models, not just analyst consensus – high-confidence demand signal.
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-08-05
Revenue at 20x sales multiple already prices in >80% FY2027 guided growth; optical networking becoming primary driver; stock has re-rated as AI interconnect infrastructure play alongside MRVL and ALAB.
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-31
Fundamental tailwinds (205% revenue growth, 80%+ forward guide) colliding with technical weakness (50-day MA break) — institutional upgrades suggest the dip is a setup not a crack in the thesis
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-24
157% YoY growth with forward sequential guidance beat; CRDO lacks ALAB's brand recognition despite comparable growth trajectory—market underprices relative to AI connectivity peers
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-21
272% YoY growth and 27% sequential guide exceeds consensus expectations; DustPhotonics adds optical interconnect IP; Zacks #1 vs ALAB Zacks #3 suggests CRDO has more near-term earnings momentum built into estimates
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$270.67
+28.3% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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