Stock Demon Overview Strategy Portfolio Earnings Digest Health Architecture Private cockpit · Not investment advice
networking ▲ HELD

Credo Technology CRDO

Price
$192.28
-7.6% today
Mkt Cap
$35.9B
Beta
3.20
52w Range
48%
pos in 52w lo→hi
RVOL
0.81
First trade
2022-01-27
Price History VALIDATED
50d MA (orange) · 200d MA (purple) · Price (blue)
Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY — slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
  • The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
  • Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 7-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA 62.3x
0%ile
P/E 69.6x
0%ile
P/S 24.7x
85%ile
FYEV/EBITDAP/EP/SRevenueEPS
2026 62.25x 69.58x 24.66x $1.3B $2.65
2025 91.02x 138.87x 16.51x $437M $0.31
2024 -120.70x neg 14.36x $193M $-0.18
2023 -118.09x neg 6.48x $184M $-0.11
2022 -94.81x neg 14.78x $106M $-0.16
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
DateEPS actEPS estEPS surp% Rev surp%Excess/21d
2026-06-01 $1.16 $1.03 +12.6% +1.2% n/a
2026-03-02 $1.07 $0.91 +17.3% +0.2% -3.7%
2025-12-01 $0.67 $0.49 +36.2% +14.1% -26.7%
2025-09-03 $0.52 $0.36 +43.9% +17.0% -13.1%
2025-06-02 $0.35 $0.27 +27.8% +6.5% +17.5%
2025-03-04 $0.25 $0.18 +38.9% -1.0% -3.6%
2024-12-02 $0.07 $0.05 +40.0% +7.8% +1.7%
2024-09-04 $0.04 $0.04 -2.2% -10.6% +3.8%
2024-05-29 $0.07 $0.05 +35.1% -0.1% +16.9%
2024-02-27 $0.04 $0.03 +30.0% +2.0% -14.5%
2023-11-29 $0.01 $0.00 +509.8% +3.1% -2.4%
2023-08-24 $-0.03 $-0.03 -3.2% -13.0% -3.8%
2023-05-31 $-0.04 $-0.04 -3.9% +2.9% -3.8%
2023-03-01 $0.05 $0.04 +28.6% +74.0% -13.7%
2022-11-30 $0.02 $0.03 -37.0% +1.2% -1.8%
2022-08-31 $0.03 $0.03 +4.8% +1.7% -3.4%
2022-06-01 $0.02 $0.00 +1685.7% +3.2% +4.8%
2022-03-10 $-0.00 — — — -16.9%
2022-03-09 $0.03 $0.01 +331.0% -10.9% -18.1%
2021-07-31 $-0.09 — — — n/a
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY — how consensus moved after each print
PrintEPS rev%Rev rev%PT rev%DirGuidance
2026-06-01 — — — — maintained
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
Model Portfolio Status HELD
Weight
12.5%
Entry
$236.88
2026-07-13
Stop
$217.93
P&L
-18.8%
Opened score
0.874
Score decomposition (2026-07-27)
Mech 0.761 VALIDATED News adj +0.150 UNPROVEN LIVE Surprise adj +0.018 COMMODITY
▲ Bull case
Val_raw 1.00; Q4 revenue $437M +157%; FY26 $1.3B+; Zacks #1 Strong Buy.
▼ Bear case
min_5d −9.87% (heavy-down day in last week) fires the recent-heavy-down flag; small-cap networking name; residual layer-concentration risk with CRDO+ANET(-→ANET sold today).
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE — UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▲ bullish long 2026-07-24
157% YoY growth with forward sequential guidance beat; CRDO lacks ALAB's brand recognition despite comparable growth trajectory—market underprices relative to AI connectivity peers
source ↗
▲ bullish long 2026-07-21
272% YoY growth and 27% sequential guide exceeds consensus expectations; DustPhotonics adds optical interconnect IP; Zacks #1 vs ALAB Zacks #3 suggests CRDO has more near-term earnings momentum built into estimates
source ↗
▼ bearish near 2026-07-20
Classic distribution signal: Evercore initiates at $325 and Stifel raises to $350 while CEO/CFO/CTO/CLO all sell large blocks into the rally; stock crossing below 50-day MA confirms smart money exit into retail enthusiasm.
source ↗
▲ bullish long 2026-06-24
Revenue tripled and earnings grew 8x in FY2026, both above pre-year consensus; FY2027 guidance of 80%+ growth and $600M+ in optical products is well above what Street modeled 6 months ago — fundamental revision cycle is accelerating.
source ↗
▲ bullish long 2026-06-23
150%+ growth was already the expectation after prior beats, but execution at this scale in AEC and optical for hyperscalers suggests CRDO is taking real share; long-term demand for high-speed Ethernet in AI clusters supports continued outperformance
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$274.18
+42.6% from current
Median PT
$275.00
High PT
$350.00
Low PT
$200.00
Current
$192.28
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
⚠ Deterioration Alerts
DateTypeSeverityDetail
2026-07-28 price_drop high Condition 1: -7.62% single-day drop
2026-07-24 deterioration high Conditions: (a) -9.87% single-day drop; (d) -9.87% vs prev snapshot
2026-07-16 deterioration medium condition: sharp drop -8.28%
2026-07-14 deterioration high day -8.1%; big-drop <=-4%, 1-day decline >=8%
2026-06-23 deterioration high Conditions: (a) -10.09% drop, (d) -10.09% vs prev snapshot