Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 4-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2025 |
23.11x |
neg |
6.07x |
$5.1B |
$-2.75 |
| 2024 |
52.99x |
neg |
8.45x |
$1.9B |
$-2.33 |
| 2023 |
-42.05x |
neg |
70.54x |
$229M |
$-1.47 |
| 2022 |
0.00x |
neg |
1020.16x |
$16M |
$-0.08 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-05-07 |
$-1.11 |
$-0.92 |
-20.7% |
+5.5% |
n/a |
| 2026-02-26 |
$-0.89 |
$-0.50 |
-78.1% |
+1.5% |
-3.6% |
| 2025-11-10 |
$-0.08 |
$-0.40 |
+79.7% |
+6.1% |
-3.7% |
| 2025-08-12 |
$-0.27 |
$-0.23 |
-16.4% |
+12.1% |
-11.0% |
| 2025-05-15 |
$-0.78 |
— |
— |
— |
+103.1% |
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY
— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▲ bullish
near
2026-07-23
Power access deal resolves the bear's key capacity-constraint objection; 108% expected Q2 revenue growth is priced in at current levels but execution risk was discounted — deal confirmation shifts burden of proof back to bulls ahead of August earnings.
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-07-21
Double negative: legal overhang (fraud suit) plus Meta — simultaneously a CRWV customer and now a direct competitor via Meta Compute — threaten both trust and revenue; BofA expects 108% Q2 revenue growth but margin likely disappoints
source ↗
▼ bearish
long
2026-07-17
Meta cloud build-out threatens CRWV largest customer ($21B commitment); market had not priced customer concentration risk - retail bought the neocloud AI theme without underwriting counterparty dependency; structural concern, not temporary noise
source ↗
▼ bearish
long
2026-07-16
Market had not priced structural risk of CoreWeave biggest customer (Meta, $21B committed) entering as a competitor; Mizuho cut target from $110 to $100 July 14; stock now $83—well below targets suggesting continued execution skepticism; retail may have viewed as a buying dip, but moat at risk
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-07-15
RETAIL TRAP: retail buys the $100B backlog headline (Meta $21B is real) but misses $35B debt load, fraud lawsuit alleging concealed construction delays, and CEO insider selling -- the backlog is real long-term demand but near-term execution risk is acute.
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$131.44
+95.3% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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