Stock Demon Overview Strategy Portfolio Earnings Digest Health Architecture Private cockpit · Not investment advice
servers ▲ HELD

Dell Technologies DELL

Price
$392.06
-8.1% today
Mkt Cap
$260.4B
Beta
1.38
52w Range
78%
pos in 52w lo→hi
RVOL
1.05
First trade
2021-06-01
Price History VALIDATED
50d MA (orange) · 200d MA (purple) · Price (blue)
Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY — slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
  • The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
  • Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA 8.1x
65%ile
P/E 12.8x
48%ile
P/S 0.7x
81%ile
FYEV/EBITDAP/EP/SRevenueEPS
2026 8.08x 12.77x 0.67x $113.5B $8.96
2025 9.71x 15.91x 0.75x $95.6B $6.51
2024 9.24x 18.33x 0.72x $88.4B $4.71
2023 6.78x 12.68x 0.30x $102.3B $3.33
2022 5.02x 7.70x 0.42x $101.2B $7.30
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
DateEPS actEPS estEPS surp% Rev surp%Excess/21d
2026-05-28 $4.86 $2.96 +64.2% +22.7% n/a
2026-02-26 $3.89 $3.53 +10.2% +5.4% +20.7%
2025-11-25 $2.59 $2.47 +4.9% -0.6% -6.2%
2025-08-28 $2.32 $2.29 +1.3% +2.6% -1.4%
2025-05-29 $1.55 $1.70 -8.8% +0.9% -5.5%
2025-02-27 $2.68 $2.52 +6.3% -2.6% +2.3%
2024-11-26 $2.15 $2.04 +5.4% -1.2% -9.1%
2024-08-29 $1.89 $1.70 +11.2% +3.7% -8.3%
2024-05-30 $1.27 $1.26 +0.8% +2.7% -4.8%
2024-02-29 $2.20 $1.73 +27.2% +0.7% -9.2%
2023-11-30 $1.88 $1.47 +27.9% -3.3% +3.8%
2023-08-31 $1.74 $1.13 +54.0% +9.9% +6.6%
2023-06-01 $1.31 $0.87 +50.6% +3.2% +10.4%
2023-03-02 $1.80 $1.64 +9.8% +6.9% -0.4%
2022-11-21 $2.30 $1.60 +43.8% +1.4% -3.6%
2022-08-25 $1.68 $1.63 +3.1% -0.3% -0.7%
2022-05-26 $1.84 $1.39 +32.4% +4.4% +8.8%
2022-02-24 $1.72 $1.95 -11.8% -19.3% +2.0%
2021-11-23 $2.37 $2.33 +1.7% -4.0% -6.3%
2021-08-26 $2.24 $2.05 +9.3% -11.0% +13.1%
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY — how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
Model Portfolio Status HELD
Weight
12.5%
Entry
$466.02
2026-06-01
Stop
$392.75
P&L
-15.9%
Opened score
1.000
Score decomposition (2026-07-27)
Mech 0.787 VALIDATED News adj +0.150 UNPROVEN LIVE Surprise adj +0.050 COMMODITY
▲ Bull case
AI-server revenue +757% YoY; FY27 guide raised; stock reversed 07-15 selloff and is +8.67%.
▼ Bear case
Range_pos 0.88 (near 52w highs) + r6m +260% = classic stretched-momentum flag (kb_lesson #7); val_raw 0.35. Watch — if score-hold slips OR range_pos stays >0.85 into another mech decay, downgrade.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE — UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▲ bullish near 2026-07-23
Street had been spooked by 18% gross margins (vs 21% prior year) but $16.1B AI server rev (+757%) and $51.3B backlog show demand overwhelms margin concerns; whipsaw from -14% to +8.67% is a classic retail confusion setup where the first move was the wrong one.
source ↗
● neutral near 2026-07-21
Stock pulled back from ATH after 326% YTD run — market questioning whether AI server boom is priced in; acknowledged "pull-in component" in demand is a risk; strong demand but next earnings needs a guide raise to sustain valuation
source ↗
▼ bearish near 2026-07-16
Evercore kept Outperform but flagged memory pricing as key risk; AI server mix has compressed gross margin 300bps YoY to 18%—momentum holders ran a "buy the rip" thesis; -14% selloff vs expectations of ongoing AI server demand confirms margin concerns outweigh top-line beat narrative
source ↗
▲ bullish long 2026-07-14
88% YoY growth exceeded consensus growth expectations; AI server demand is more durable than bears feared; at ~$417 stock still below $500 PT implying underdiscounted AI infrastructure exposure vs hyperscaler peers.
source ↗
▲ bullish long 2026-06-23
AI server beat was so far above any prior estimate that consensus had to rebuild from scratch; $60B full-year AI server guide (up 144%) is the kind of fundamental inflection that sustains multi-quarter momentum
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$472.23
+20.4% from current
Median PT
$500.00
High PT
$700.00
Low PT
$270.00
Current
$392.06
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
⚠ Deterioration Alerts
DateTypeSeverityDetail
2026-07-28 price_drop high Condition 1: -8.08% single-day drop
2026-07-16 deterioration medium condition: sharp drop -5.08%
2026-07-15 price_drop medium Very large drop: -9.86% (condition a: change_pct ≤ -4%)
2026-06-02 deterioration high Conditions (a) change_pct=-6.57% and (b) RVOL=1.96 with negative day both tripped. Sharp sell-off on elevated volume.