Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA19.3x
0%ile
P/E54.4x
19%ile
P/S4.0x
22%ile
FY
EV/EBITDA
P/E
P/S
Revenue
EPS
2025
19.33x
54.35x
4.00x
$3.2B
$1.55
2024
20.42x
51.06x
4.61x
$3.2B
$1.94
2023
25.41x
99.02x
5.10x
$3.5B
$1.21
2022
19.80x
44.62x
2.84x
$3.3B
$1.47
2021
29.42x
45.89x
8.16x
$2.3B
$3.02
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
Date
EPS act
EPS est
EPS surp%
Rev surp%
Excess/21d
2026-04-30
$0.86
$0.74
+15.4%
+0.4%
-25.4%
2026-02-10
$0.70
$0.67
+4.9%
+1.6%
-18.9%
2025-10-30
$0.72
$0.72
+0.0%
-0.5%
-5.9%
2025-07-30
$0.66
$0.65
+2.3%
+3.5%
+8.1%
2025-05-07
$0.67
$0.68
-1.8%
-2.1%
-22.4%
2025-02-06
$0.84
$0.77
+9.1%
+7.7%
+6.8%
2024-11-04
$0.77
$0.78
-1.2%
-3.0%
-6.7%
2024-07-31
$0.71
$0.70
+0.7%
+1.3%
+0.4%
2024-05-01
$0.68
$0.61
+10.6%
+0.2%
-10.1%
2024-02-13
$0.65
$0.59
+10.2%
+4.0%
-7.3%
2023-11-02
$0.68
$0.61
+11.5%
-0.4%
+7.5%
2023-08-03
$0.66
$0.58
+13.8%
+1.6%
-2.0%
2023-05-11
$0.65
$0.52
+25.0%
+3.3%
+2.2%
2023-02-14
$0.83
$0.78
+6.4%
-0.5%
-1.5%
2022-11-02
$0.85
$0.98
-13.3%
-2.2%
+5.4%
2022-08-02
$1.00
$1.05
-4.8%
+3.9%
-2.3%
2022-04-26
$1.06
$0.99
+7.1%
+1.4%
-0.8%
2022-02-01
$0.96
$0.89
+7.9%
+7.2%
-4.2%
2021-10-26
$0.92
$0.87
+5.7%
-0.1%
+2.3%
2021-07-27
$0.85
$0.80
+6.3%
-1.6%
-4.3%
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
Model Portfolio Status
Last recorded action: SELL on 2026-07-13 (mech 0.518, news_adj +0.000, surp +0.022)
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
No news recorded yet.
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$165.43
+40.0% from current
Median PT
$160.00
High PT
$205.00
Low PT
$115.00
Current
$118.16
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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