Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 5-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2025 |
45.89x |
36.47x |
4.67x |
$38.1B |
$17.92 |
| 2024 |
23.55x |
58.32x |
2.59x |
$34.9B |
$5.64 |
| 2023 |
38.49x |
neg |
1.07x |
$33.2B |
$-1.61 |
| 2022 |
-67.11x |
neg |
1.20x |
$29.7B |
$-10.06 |
| 2021 |
0.00x |
neg |
1.08x |
$33.0B |
$-2.33 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-04-22 |
$1.98 |
$1.95 |
+1.5% |
+0.9% |
-24.9% |
| 2026-01-28 |
$13.39 |
$2.93 |
+357.0% |
+7.4% |
+21.1% |
| 2025-10-22 |
$1.64 |
$1.72 |
-4.7% |
+9.0% |
+2.8% |
| 2025-07-23 |
$1.86 |
$1.48 |
+25.7% |
+3.4% |
-3.6% |
| 2025-04-23 |
$0.91 |
$0.47 |
+94.2% |
+6.5% |
+6.0% |
| 2025-01-22 |
$1.73 |
$2.28 |
-24.1% |
-1.3% |
-15.8% |
| 2024-10-23 |
$0.35 |
$0.19 |
+82.7% |
+1.8% |
+10.7% |
| 2024-07-24 |
$0.71 |
$0.74 |
-4.3% |
-0.7% |
+10.7% |
| 2024-04-25 |
$-0.41 |
$-0.36 |
-13.9% |
-0.3% |
+4.1% |
| 2024-03-13 |
$0.35 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2023-09-30 |
$-0.62 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2023-06-30 |
$-0.55 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2023-03-31 |
$-1.15 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▲ bullish
long
2026-08-12
EPS miss was a one-quarter execution blip not demand destruction; $176B backlog and 22% revenue beat show structural demand exceeds capacity – initial -9% selloff was the retail trap, then recovered.
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-08-05
Revenue beat masked a 22% EPS miss; tariff headwinds ($100-200M) and widening wind EBITDA loss (-$275M) drove the profit shortfall; retail trap — headline 'revenue beat + $176B backlog' obscures the earnings disappointment that drove -9%.
source ↗
● neutral
long
2026-08-04
Revenue beat but EPS missed; $176B+ backlog far exceeds what consensus had modeled—long-term demand clear but near-term margin execution remains the question analysts are watching
source ↗
● neutral
near
2026-07-31
Q2 orders surge (+88%) signals record backlog conversion ahead, but GAAP EPS $2.47 missed $3.17 estimate on timing/mix; market set a higher bar given ATH at $1,175 in June — structurally bullish, near-term digestion
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-23
GAAP EPS $2.47 missed $3.17 consensus due to wind losses but orders +88% and FCF turnaround from $194M to $5.1B dwarf the headline EPS miss; retail likely sold EPS miss while institutional focus is on $176B backlog.
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$1,266.38
+32.2% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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