Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2025 |
21.20x |
28.76x |
9.44x |
$402.8B |
$10.91 |
| 2024 |
17.34x |
23.42x |
6.70x |
$350.0B |
$8.13 |
| 2023 |
18.20x |
24.13x |
5.79x |
$307.4B |
$5.84 |
| 2022 |
13.70x |
19.33x |
4.10x |
$282.8B |
$4.59 |
| 2021 |
18.74x |
25.43x |
7.50x |
$257.6B |
$5.69 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-04-29 |
$5.11 |
$2.64 |
+93.6% |
+2.7% |
-21.2% |
| 2026-02-04 |
$2.82 |
$2.57 |
+9.7% |
+2.2% |
-15.5% |
| 2025-10-29 |
$2.87 |
$2.30 |
+24.8% |
+2.4% |
+18.4% |
| 2025-07-23 |
$2.31 |
$2.15 |
+7.4% |
-3.4% |
+6.3% |
| 2025-04-24 |
$2.81 |
$2.02 |
+39.1% |
+1.2% |
-19.6% |
| 2025-02-04 |
$2.15 |
$2.12 |
+1.4% |
-0.2% |
+6.3% |
| 2024-10-29 |
$2.12 |
$1.85 |
+14.6% |
+2.3% |
-7.9% |
| 2024-07-23 |
$1.89 |
$1.84 |
+2.7% |
+0.7% |
-4.3% |
| 2024-04-25 |
$1.89 |
$1.51 |
+25.2% |
+2.5% |
-9.6% |
| 2024-01-30 |
$1.64 |
$1.59 |
+3.1% |
+1.2% |
-22.8% |
| 2023-10-24 |
$1.55 |
$1.45 |
+6.9% |
+1.0% |
-6.3% |
| 2023-07-25 |
$1.44 |
$1.34 |
+7.5% |
+2.5% |
+2.2% |
| 2023-04-25 |
$1.17 |
$1.07 |
+9.3% |
+1.3% |
+2.9% |
| 2023-02-02 |
$1.05 |
$1.18 |
-11.0% |
-0.2% |
-5.7% |
| 2022-10-25 |
$1.06 |
$1.25 |
-15.2% |
-2.7% |
-7.8% |
| 2022-07-26 |
$1.21 |
$1.28 |
-5.5% |
-0.2% |
-3.6% |
| 2022-04-26 |
$1.23 |
$1.30 |
-5.4% |
-0.1% |
-6.3% |
| 2022-02-01 |
$1.53 |
$1.37 |
+11.7% |
+4.2% |
-2.8% |
| 2021-10-26 |
$1.40 |
$1.17 |
+19.7% |
+2.9% |
-10.8% |
| 2021-07-27 |
$1.36 |
$0.97 |
+40.2% |
-2.1% |
+2.6% |
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▼ bearish
near
2026-08-12
Revenue beat masked EPS miss plus $205B capex shock; AI leadership churn (Jeff Dean departure) adds structural execution risk beyond the print – multiple headwinds vs analyst models.
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-08-07
Leadership reshuffle at AI division reintroduces execution risk to Gemini monetization story just as analysts were rebuilding conviction post-Q2 beat; market had expected stability after record Q2, so disruption was not priced
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-08-05
Strong Q2 profit beat; +5.1% on Monday driven by Morgan Stanley note reassuring investors on AI capex returns; $1.5T combined value add with AMZN/MSFT week reflects mega-cap AI re-rating; DeepMind AGI progress adds optionality.
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-08-04
Massive EPS/cloud beat (EPS triple consensus) but stock initially sold off on $195-205B capex; retail who panicked sold the bottom—Aug 3 MS note triggered recovery; buy the capex fear was the right call
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-07-27
Headline showed revenue/EPS beats but FCF turned negative for the first time in years — retail bought the beat while buy-side focused on FCF deterioration; capex arms race now structurally threatens free cash flow in H2 2026
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$431.57
+25.5% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
Stock Demon
Overview
Strategy
Portfolio
Earnings
Digest
Health
Architecture
Private cockpit · Not investment advice