Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA14.5x
8%ile
P/S3.3x
75%ile
FY
EV/EBITDA
P/E
P/S
Revenue
EPS
2025
14.50x
neg
3.33x
$52.9B
$-0.06
2024
106.94x
neg
1.64x
$53.1B
$-4.38
2023
22.48x
125.63x
3.88x
$54.2B
$0.40
2022
6.55x
13.55x
1.72x
$63.1B
$1.95
2021
7.13x
10.49x
2.64x
$79.0B
$4.89
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
Date
EPS act
EPS est
EPS surp%
Rev surp%
Excess/21d
2026-04-23
$0.29
$0.02
+1428.7%
+9.3%
+34.4%
2026-01-22
$0.15
$0.08
+84.4%
+1.8%
-4.4%
2025-10-23
$0.23
$0.02
+1191.4%
+3.5%
+0.9%
2025-07-24
$-0.10
$0.01
-929.2%
+7.3%
+17.8%
2025-04-24
$0.13
$0.01
+1811.8%
+3.0%
-23.9%
2025-01-30
$0.13
$0.12
+9.3%
+3.1%
+21.1%
2024-10-31
$-0.46
$-0.02
-2090.5%
+2.0%
-14.9%
2024-08-01
$0.02
$0.10
-80.2%
-0.7%
-10.8%
2024-04-25
$0.18
$0.14
+31.1%
-0.6%
-14.8%
2024-01-25
$0.54
$0.45
+20.0%
+1.7%
-14.8%
2023-10-26
$0.41
$0.21
+95.2%
+4.9%
+9.1%
2023-07-27
$0.13
$0.02
+482.4%
+18.1%
-6.5%
2023-04-27
$-0.04
$-0.16
+75.0%
+6.1%
-22.1%
2023-01-26
$0.10
$0.20
-50.0%
-3.1%
-9.8%
2022-10-27
$0.59
$0.34
+73.5%
+0.5%
-6.2%
2022-07-28
$0.29
$0.69
-58.0%
-14.7%
-5.3%
2022-04-28
$0.87
$0.80
+8.8%
+0.2%
-1.0%
2022-01-26
$1.09
$0.91
+19.8%
+12.1%
-3.7%
2021-10-21
$1.71
$1.11
+54.1%
+5.2%
-9.6%
2021-07-22
$1.28
$1.06
+20.8%
+7.6%
-0.3%
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY— how consensus moved after each print
Print
EPS rev%
Rev rev%
PT rev%
Dir
Guidance
2026-07-23
—
—
—
—
raised
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
Model Portfolio Status
Not in model portfolio.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
No news recorded yet.
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$110.41
+27.9% from current
Median PT
$110.00
High PT
$200.00
Low PT
$60.00
Current
$86.30
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
⚠ Deterioration Alerts
Date
Type
Severity
Detail
2026-07-28
price_drop
high
Condition 1: -5.86% single-day drop
2026-07-24
deterioration
medium
Condition: (a) -7.89% single-day drop
2026-07-16
deterioration
medium
condition: sharp drop -5.84%
2026-07-15
price_drop
medium
Large drop: -4.43% (condition a: change_pct ≤ -4%)
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