Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA23.1x
59%ile
P/E29.3x
57%ile
P/S9.8x
74%ile
FY
EV/EBITDA
P/E
P/S
Revenue
EPS
2025
23.06x
29.34x
9.80x
$12.2B
$3.05
2024
29.95x
40.56x
11.42x
$9.8B
$2.04
2023
15.95x
19.98x
6.45x
$10.5B
$2.43
2022
13.26x
14.46x
5.21x
$9.2B
$2.21
2021
18.26x
24.03x
7.22x
$6.9B
$1.35
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
Date
EPS act
EPS est
EPS surp%
Rev surp%
Excess/21d
2026-04-29
$9.40
$9.17
+2.5%
+1.2%
-10.2%
2026-01-29
$8.85
$8.79
+0.7%
+1.5%
-0.1%
2025-10-29
$8.81
$8.63
+2.1%
+1.2%
+1.8%
2025-07-31
$9.38
$8.56
+9.6%
+3.1%
-4.9%
2025-04-30
$8.41
$8.09
+4.0%
+1.8%
-8.3%
2025-01-30
$8.20
$7.75
+5.8%
+4.4%
+6.0%
2024-10-30
$7.33
$7.05
+4.0%
+3.4%
-10.3%
2024-07-24
$6.60
$6.15
+7.3%
+1.8%
+3.3%
2024-04-25
$5.26
$5.01
+5.0%
+2.1%
-0.9%
2024-01-25
$6.16
$5.88
+4.8%
+1.0%
+0.3%
2023-10-25
$5.74
$5.41
+6.1%
+1.5%
+4.4%
2023-07-27
$5.40
$4.85
+11.3%
+4.3%
-2.6%
2023-04-26
$5.49
$5.32
+3.2%
+2.4%
+0.1%
2023-01-26
$7.38
$7.10
+3.9%
+5.9%
-3.3%
2022-10-26
$7.06
$6.21
+13.7%
+4.9%
+12.6%
2022-07-28
$5.81
$5.50
+5.6%
+2.3%
-3.9%
2022-04-28
$5.13
$4.82
+6.4%
+3.9%
+11.4%
2022-01-27
$5.59
$5.45
+2.6%
+6.5%
-6.7%
2021-10-27
$4.64
$4.45
+4.3%
+2.0%
+7.7%
2021-07-29
$4.43
$3.99
+11.0%
+0.0%
-3.5%
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
Model Portfolio Status
Not in model portfolio.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
No news recorded yet.
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$225.09
+18.0% from current
Median PT
$200.00
High PT
$325.00
Low PT
$145.00
Current
$190.80
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
⚠ Deterioration Alerts
Date
Type
Severity
Detail
2026-07-28
price_drop
high
Condition 1: -6.18% single-day drop
2026-07-14
deterioration
medium
day -4.0%; big-drop <=-4%
2026-06-23
deterioration
high
Conditions: (a) -9.17% drop, (d) -9.17% vs prev snapshot
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