Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA19.5x
48%ile
P/E23.3x
42%ile
P/S6.8x
55%ile
FY
EV/EBITDA
P/E
P/S
Revenue
EPS
2025
19.47x
23.34x
6.79x
$18.4B
$4.17
2024
28.24x
36.45x
9.35x
$14.9B
$2.91
2023
14.85x
18.63x
4.82x
$17.4B
$3.33
2022
11.28x
13.67x
3.65x
$17.2B
$3.29
2021
19.13x
23.79x
6.35x
$14.6B
$2.72
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
Date
EPS act
EPS est
EPS surp%
Rev surp%
Excess/21d
2026-04-22
$1.47
$1.36
+8.1%
+1.6%
+2.9%
2026-01-28
$1.27
$1.17
+8.5%
+2.1%
-8.7%
2025-10-22
$1.26
$1.22
+3.3%
+1.9%
+6.0%
2025-07-30
$1.33
$1.21
+9.9%
+3.3%
+7.0%
2025-04-23
$1.04
$1.00
+4.0%
+1.7%
-8.5%
2025-01-29
$0.91
$0.88
+3.6%
+1.4%
+5.8%
2024-10-23
$0.86
$0.81
+6.2%
+2.7%
-12.0%
2024-07-31
$0.81
$0.76
+6.9%
+1.3%
-6.2%
2024-04-24
$0.78
$7.30
-89.3%
+1.9%
-5.5%
2024-01-24
$0.75
$0.71
+5.6%
+1.3%
-2.4%
2023-10-18
$0.69
$0.61
+13.1%
-0.9%
+6.3%
2023-07-26
$0.60
$0.50
+20.0%
+2.5%
-3.8%
2023-04-19
$0.70
$0.65
+7.7%
+23.6%
+3.5%
2023-01-25
$1.07
$1.00
+7.0%
+3.5%
-1.0%
2022-10-19
$1.04
$0.95
+9.5%
+3.1%
+12.8%
2022-07-27
$0.88
$0.73
+20.5%
+9.6%
-5.0%
2022-04-20
$0.74
$0.75
-1.3%
-4.4%
+8.2%
2022-01-26
$0.85
$0.85
+0.0%
-4.2%
-1.9%
2021-10-20
$0.84
$0.81
+3.7%
-0.4%
+5.1%
2021-07-28
$0.81
$0.75
+8.0%
-4.1%
-3.6%
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
Model Portfolio Status
Not in model portfolio.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
No news recorded yet.
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$363.79
+34.9% from current
Median PT
$355.00
High PT
$500.00
Low PT
$275.00
Current
$269.61
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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