Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2025 |
16.38x |
27.53x |
8.28x |
$201.0B |
$23.98 |
| 2024 |
17.14x |
23.79x |
9.02x |
$164.5B |
$24.61 |
| 2023 |
15.35x |
23.30x |
6.75x |
$134.9B |
$15.19 |
| 2022 |
8.90x |
13.94x |
2.77x |
$116.6B |
$8.63 |
| 2021 |
17.08x |
24.04x |
8.03x |
$117.9B |
$13.99 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-04-29 |
$7.31 |
$6.70 |
+9.1% |
+1.4% |
-16.7% |
| 2026-01-28 |
$8.88 |
$8.19 |
+8.4% |
+2.7% |
-13.2% |
| 2025-10-29 |
$7.25 |
$6.72 |
+7.9% |
+3.5% |
+2.7% |
| 2025-07-30 |
$7.14 |
$5.88 |
+21.4% |
+6.0% |
-3.1% |
| 2025-04-30 |
$6.43 |
$5.23 |
+22.9% |
+2.4% |
-3.8% |
| 2025-01-29 |
$8.02 |
$6.75 |
+18.8% |
+2.9% |
+7.3% |
| 2024-10-30 |
$6.03 |
$5.25 |
+14.9% |
+1.0% |
-5.8% |
| 2024-07-31 |
$5.16 |
$4.73 |
+9.1% |
+2.1% |
-0.3% |
| 2024-04-24 |
$4.71 |
$4.32 |
+9.0% |
+0.9% |
-4.8% |
| 2024-02-01 |
$5.33 |
$4.96 |
+7.5% |
+2.4% |
-14.0% |
| 2023-10-25 |
$4.39 |
$3.63 |
+20.9% |
+7.9% |
-1.0% |
| 2023-07-26 |
$2.98 |
$2.92 |
+2.1% |
+14.4% |
-6.3% |
| 2023-04-26 |
$2.20 |
$2.03 |
+8.4% |
+3.6% |
-10.0% |
| 2023-02-01 |
$1.76 |
$2.22 |
-20.7% |
+1.9% |
+3.5% |
| 2022-10-26 |
$1.64 |
$1.89 |
-13.2% |
+1.0% |
+2.3% |
| 2022-07-27 |
$2.46 |
$2.59 |
-5.0% |
-0.3% |
+2.1% |
| 2022-04-27 |
$2.72 |
$2.56 |
+6.3% |
-1.3% |
-5.6% |
| 2022-02-02 |
$3.67 |
$3.84 |
-4.4% |
+0.9% |
-13.2% |
| 2021-10-25 |
$3.22 |
$3.19 |
+0.9% |
-1.8% |
-2.9% |
| 2021-07-28 |
$3.61 |
$3.03 |
+19.1% |
-1.4% |
+2.0% |
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▼ bearish
near
2026-08-12
Retail trap – headline revenue beat concealed massive EPS miss ($1.04 below consensus) and near-total FCF collapse from AI capex; Q3 guidance also below Street midpoint.
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-08-07
Classic retail trap: EPS missed by 14% and Q3 guidance light, retail sold; institutions bought because capex raised to $130-145B signals AI conviction, and revenue at $60.8B still beat top-line est; buy-side knew the EPS miss was comp-related, not structural
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-08-05
Classic retail trap: revenue headline +28% read bullish but EPS miss of 14% ($6.18 vs $7.17) and FCF-negative trajectory spooked the buy-side; Q3 guide midpoint $62.5B below $63.15B consensus adds to the miss; capex $145B eclipsing earnings growth.
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-07-30
Revenue beat driven by ad strength but EPS missed by $1.04 as AI capex surged; retail bought the revenue headline while buy-side sold on FCF collapse of 91% — classic capex-trap vs. whisper-number mismatch
source ↗
● neutral
near
2026-07-28
Post-GOOGL, market is primed to sell capex hikes — META raised full-year guide to $125-145B; a revenue beat may be muted if capex rises further; however, Zuckerberg warning and GOOGL selloff may have already lowered the effective bar, making a beat+hold a retail trap to the upside.
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$766.94
+2.0% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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