Stock Demon Overview Strategy Portfolio Earnings Digest Health Architecture Private cockpit · Not investment advice
silicon ▲ HELD

Marvell Technology MRVL

Price
$174.47
-7.8% today
Mkt Cap
$152.8B
Beta
2.20
52w Range
42%
pos in 52w lo→hi
RVOL
0.69
First trade
2021-06-01
Price History VALIDATED
50d MA (orange) · 200d MA (purple) · Price (blue)
Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY — slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
  • The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
  • Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA 15.4x
0%ile
P/S 8.3x
19%ile
FYEV/EBITDAP/EP/SRevenueEPS
2026 15.44x 25.46x 8.29x $8.2B $3.10
2025 155.12x neg 16.94x $5.8B $-1.02
2024 72.60x neg 10.59x $5.5B $-1.08
2023 24.61x neg 6.21x $5.9B $-0.19
2022 67.70x neg 12.75x $4.5B $-0.53
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
DateEPS actEPS estEPS surp% Rev surp%Excess/21d
2026-05-27 $0.80 $0.80 +0.3% +0.5% n/a
2026-03-05 $0.80 $0.79 +1.0% +0.5% +15.0%
2025-12-02 $0.76 $0.74 +2.3% +0.3% -12.0%
2025-08-28 $0.67 $0.67 -0.4% -0.2% +16.3%
2025-05-29 $0.62 $0.61 +1.3% +1.0% +11.7%
2025-03-05 $0.60 $0.59 +1.7% +1.0% -13.0%
2024-12-03 $0.43 $0.41 +4.9% +4.1% -1.0%
2024-08-29 $0.30 $0.29 +2.2% +1.9% -14.0%
2024-05-30 $0.24 $0.24 +1.2% +0.6% -3.5%
2024-03-07 $0.46 $0.46 -0.4% +0.4% -4.8%
2023-11-30 $0.41 $0.40 +2.5% +1.3% +4.8%
2023-08-24 $0.33 $0.32 +3.1% -4.3% -0.7%
2023-05-25 $0.31 $0.29 +6.9% +1.6% -12.3%
2023-03-02 $0.46 $0.46 +0.0% +1.3% -8.1%
2022-12-01 $0.57 $0.59 -3.4% -1.1% -11.4%
2022-08-25 $0.57 $0.56 +1.8% -0.0% +2.0%
2022-05-26 $0.52 $0.51 +2.0% +1.4% -13.9%
2022-03-03 $0.50 $0.48 +4.2% +1.5% +9.2%
2021-12-02 $0.43 $0.38 +13.2% -7.3% -1.3%
2021-08-26 $0.34 $0.31 +9.7% -6.2% +3.5%
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY — how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
Model Portfolio Status HELD
Weight
12.5%
Entry
$219.43
2026-06-01
Stop
$200.13
P&L
-20.5%
Opened score
0.844
Score decomposition (2026-07-27)
Mech 0.764 VALIDATED News adj +0.150 UNPROVEN LIVE Surprise adj -0.016 COMMODITY
▲ Bull case
r6m +132.6%; multi-catalyst (NVDA equity, XConn closing, Teralynx); val_raw 1.00 (cheap own-hist EV/EBITDA 15.4).
▼ Bear case
Signal-disagreement flag technically fires: news bullish (+0.15) but Q1 surprise ordinal slightly negative (inline eps → -1/3 ordinal). Magnitude tiny; not treating as a real conflict.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE — UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▲ bullish long 2026-07-23
NVDA $2B strategic investment was beyond analyst modeling; validates MRVL as #2 in custom silicon behind AVGO — consensus had underweighted MRVL ASIC TAM; KeyBanc jumped to $400 PT.
source ↗
▼ bearish near 2026-07-21
Strong 63.3% revenue growth and Teralynx product news could not offset macro fear that hyperscaler AI capex may moderate — market re-rated the sector and MRVL got caught in the selloff despite solid fundamentals
source ↗
▲ bullish long 2026-07-14
Upgrades reflect higher custom silicon conviction from Tier-1 hyperscalers with backlog now stretching to 2030; consensus was anchored on shorter cycle, so these revisions structurally lift estimates.
source ↗
▲ bullish long 2026-06-24
Triple catalyst: Nvidia CEO endorsement as next trillion-dollar co, S&P 500 forced buying on June 22, and Q1 FY2027 call raised interconnect revenue growth guide from 50% to 70% — all three beat analyst expectations simultaneously; BofA raised PT to $365 from $240.
source ↗
▼ bearish near 2026-06-23
Inclusion was well-telegraphed; passive forced buying already priced in by the time of the event; CFO insider selling adds near-term overhang despite strong Q1 beat ($2.42B) and Q2 guide $2.7B (+3% above estimates)
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$251.21
+44.0% from current
Median PT
$240.00
High PT
$400.00
Low PT
$155.00
Current
$174.47
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
⚠ Deterioration Alerts
DateTypeSeverityDetail
2026-07-28 price_drop high Condition 1: -7.77% single-day drop
2026-07-24 deterioration high Conditions: (a) -7.21% single-day drop; (d) -7.21% vs prev snapshot
2026-07-16 deterioration medium condition: sharp drop -8.71%
2026-07-15 price_drop medium Very large drop: -7.27% (condition a: change_pct ≤ -4%)
2026-07-14 deterioration medium day -7.8%; big-drop <=-4%