Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA15.4x
0%ile
P/S8.3x
19%ile
FY
EV/EBITDA
P/E
P/S
Revenue
EPS
2026
15.44x
25.46x
8.29x
$8.2B
$3.10
2025
155.12x
neg
16.94x
$5.8B
$-1.02
2024
72.60x
neg
10.59x
$5.5B
$-1.08
2023
24.61x
neg
6.21x
$5.9B
$-0.19
2022
67.70x
neg
12.75x
$4.5B
$-0.53
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
Date
EPS act
EPS est
EPS surp%
Rev surp%
Excess/21d
2026-05-27
$0.80
$0.80
+0.3%
+0.5%
n/a
2026-03-05
$0.80
$0.79
+1.0%
+0.5%
+15.0%
2025-12-02
$0.76
$0.74
+2.3%
+0.3%
-12.0%
2025-08-28
$0.67
$0.67
-0.4%
-0.2%
+16.3%
2025-05-29
$0.62
$0.61
+1.3%
+1.0%
+11.7%
2025-03-05
$0.60
$0.59
+1.7%
+1.0%
-13.0%
2024-12-03
$0.43
$0.41
+4.9%
+4.1%
-1.0%
2024-08-29
$0.30
$0.29
+2.2%
+1.9%
-14.0%
2024-05-30
$0.24
$0.24
+1.2%
+0.6%
-3.5%
2024-03-07
$0.46
$0.46
-0.4%
+0.4%
-4.8%
2023-11-30
$0.41
$0.40
+2.5%
+1.3%
+4.8%
2023-08-24
$0.33
$0.32
+3.1%
-4.3%
-0.7%
2023-05-25
$0.31
$0.29
+6.9%
+1.6%
-12.3%
2023-03-02
$0.46
$0.46
+0.0%
+1.3%
-8.1%
2022-12-01
$0.57
$0.59
-3.4%
-1.1%
-11.4%
2022-08-25
$0.57
$0.56
+1.8%
-0.0%
+2.0%
2022-05-26
$0.52
$0.51
+2.0%
+1.4%
-13.9%
2022-03-03
$0.50
$0.48
+4.2%
+1.5%
+9.2%
2021-12-02
$0.43
$0.38
+13.2%
-7.3%
-1.3%
2021-08-26
$0.34
$0.31
+9.7%
-6.2%
+3.5%
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
Final 0.920 (#3), val=1.0 (EV/EBITDA at bottom of history), bullish news; ret_6m +167%.
▼ Bear case
Stretched-momentum flag (kb#7): ret_6m +167%, vs_ma200 +55%. Silicon layer concentration alongside MU/NVDA. Trim reduces exposure risk.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▲ bullishlong2026-08-10
Elevated bar set by FMS 2026 product unveil (+10% stock); AI ASIC custom chip ramp for hyperscalers is structural; risk is any guide miss given forward P/E ~47x
Asia channel checks confirming tight AI chip supply drove aggressive PT upgrades; +10% on product unveil is a sentiment catalyst pre-Aug 27 earnings; 40%+ revenue growth for 3 years already in consensus — bar is set high.
NVDA $2B strategic investment was beyond analyst modeling; validates MRVL as #2 in custom silicon behind AVGO — consensus had underweighted MRVL ASIC TAM; KeyBanc jumped to $400 PT.
Strong 63.3% revenue growth and Teralynx product news could not offset macro fear that hyperscaler AI capex may moderate — market re-rated the sector and MRVL got caught in the selloff despite solid fundamentals
Upgrades reflect higher custom silicon conviction from Tier-1 hyperscalers with backlog now stretching to 2030; consensus was anchored on shorter cycle, so these revisions structurally lift estimates.
Stock Demon
Overview
Strategy
Portfolio
Earnings
Digest
Health
Architecture
Private cockpit · Not investment advice