Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2025 |
23.60x |
36.31x |
13.12x |
$281.7B |
$13.70 |
| 2024 |
26.11x |
38.51x |
13.85x |
$245.1B |
$11.86 |
| 2023 |
24.54x |
35.03x |
11.97x |
$211.9B |
$9.72 |
| 2022 |
19.85x |
26.48x |
9.71x |
$198.3B |
$9.70 |
| 2021 |
24.81x |
33.36x |
12.16x |
$168.1B |
$8.12 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-04-29 |
$4.27 |
$4.06 |
+5.2% |
+1.8% |
-9.6% |
| 2026-01-28 |
$4.14 |
$3.90 |
+6.2% |
+1.2% |
-9.8% |
| 2025-10-29 |
$4.13 |
$3.67 |
+12.5% |
+2.9% |
-0.9% |
| 2025-07-30 |
$3.65 |
$3.37 |
+8.3% |
+3.4% |
-3.6% |
| 2025-04-30 |
$3.46 |
$3.22 |
+7.5% |
+2.4% |
-12.5% |
| 2025-01-29 |
$3.23 |
$3.15 |
+2.5% |
+1.1% |
+5.5% |
| 2024-10-30 |
$3.30 |
$3.10 |
+6.5% |
+1.6% |
-4.2% |
| 2024-07-30 |
$2.95 |
$2.93 |
+0.7% |
+0.5% |
+0.8% |
| 2024-04-25 |
$2.94 |
$2.82 |
+4.3% |
+1.6% |
-6.3% |
| 2024-01-30 |
$2.93 |
$2.78 |
+5.4% |
+10.3% |
-16.2% |
| 2023-10-24 |
$2.99 |
$2.65 |
+12.8% |
+3.7% |
-4.3% |
| 2023-07-25 |
$2.69 |
$2.55 |
+5.5% |
+1.3% |
-3.4% |
| 2023-04-25 |
$2.45 |
$2.23 |
+9.9% |
+3.6% |
-5.9% |
| 2023-01-24 |
$2.32 |
$2.29 |
+1.3% |
-0.5% |
+4.1% |
| 2022-10-25 |
$2.35 |
$2.30 |
+2.2% |
+1.0% |
-3.5% |
| 2022-07-26 |
$2.23 |
$2.29 |
-2.6% |
-1.0% |
-3.0% |
| 2022-04-26 |
$2.22 |
$2.19 |
+1.4% |
+0.7% |
-6.8% |
| 2022-01-25 |
$2.48 |
$2.31 |
+7.4% |
+1.9% |
+0.5% |
| 2021-10-26 |
$2.27 |
$2.07 |
+9.7% |
+3.0% |
-6.0% |
| 2021-07-27 |
$2.17 |
$1.92 |
+13.0% |
+5.0% |
+3.1% |
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY
— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
● neutral
near
2026-07-28
GOOGL beat on revenue and Cloud (+82%) yet fell 5-7% on capex hike — MSFT faces same dynamic; Azure +40% Q3 beat set institutional bar near 40%+ for Q4, and $190B FY capex plan already flagged; market reaction will hinge on capex language, not the revenue number.
source ↗
▲ bullish
near
2026-07-21
Azure beat at 40% vs 38.8% est; Q4 guide of ~40% plus modest acceleration in H2 is better than feared — key risk is whether July 29 report sustains or confirms acceleration; AI ARR of $37B growing 123% is the standout
source ↗
● neutral
near
2026-07-17
Down 20% YTD resets expectations bar low heading into July 29 earnings; capex bear thesis is well-known and priced - surprise upside if Copilot/Azure AI monetization metrics show ROI materializing; asymmetric setup favors bulls at current depressed multiple
source ↗
● neutral
near
2026-07-16
Azure AI at $37B ARR (+123% YoY) is strong but capex ($190B planned 2026) has market divided; two analysts taking cautious pre-earnings stance suggests elevated buy-side bar; risk is Q4 guide disappoints given antitrust OpenAI scrutiny and margin pressure from AI buildout
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-06-24
Strong fundamentals (Azure +40%, EPS beat 4.9%, RPO $627B) are being overshadowed by investor worry over $190B capex commitment; stock is down 18.2% YTD despite execution above expectations — setup is bullish relative to the pessimism priced in.
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$546.42
+38.9% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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Private cockpit · Not investment advice