Stock Demon Overview Strategy Portfolio Earnings Digest Health Architecture Private cockpit · Not investment advice
cloud ▲ HELD

Microsoft MSFT

Price
$516.17
+3.7% today
Mkt Cap
$3.83T
Beta
1.11
52w Range
82%
pos in 52w lo→hi
RVOL
1.10
First trade
2021-06-01
Price History VALIDATED
50d MA (orange) · 200d MA (purple) · Price (blue)
Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY — slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
  • The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
  • Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 7-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA 13.9x
0%ile
P/E 20.7x
0%ile
P/S 8.4x
0%ile
FYEV/EBITDAP/EP/SRevenueEPS
2026 13.87x 20.72x 8.35x $331.8B $18.00
2025 23.60x 36.31x 13.12x $281.7B $13.70
2024 26.11x 38.51x 13.85x $245.1B $11.86
2023 24.54x 35.03x 11.97x $211.9B $9.72
2022 19.85x 26.48x 9.71x $198.3B $9.70
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
DateEPS actEPS estEPS surp% Rev surp%Excess/21d
2026-04-29 $4.27 $4.06 +5.2% +1.8% -9.6%
2026-01-28 $4.14 $3.90 +6.2% +1.2% -9.8%
2025-10-29 $4.13 $3.67 +12.5% +2.9% -0.9%
2025-07-30 $3.65 $3.37 +8.3% +3.4% -3.6%
2025-04-30 $3.46 $3.22 +7.5% +2.4% -12.5%
2025-01-29 $3.23 $3.15 +2.5% +1.1% +5.5%
2024-10-30 $3.30 $3.10 +6.5% +1.6% -4.2%
2024-07-30 $2.95 $2.93 +0.7% +0.5% +0.8%
2024-04-25 $2.94 $2.82 +4.3% +1.6% -6.3%
2024-01-30 $2.93 $2.78 +5.4% +10.3% -16.2%
2023-10-24 $2.99 $2.65 +12.8% +3.7% -4.3%
2023-07-25 $2.69 $2.55 +5.5% +1.3% -3.4%
2023-04-25 $2.45 $2.23 +9.9% +3.6% -5.9%
2023-01-24 $2.32 $2.29 +1.3% -0.5% +4.1%
2022-10-25 $2.35 $2.30 +2.2% +1.0% -3.5%
2022-07-26 $2.23 $2.29 -2.6% -1.0% -3.0%
2022-04-26 $2.22 $2.19 +1.4% +0.7% -6.8%
2022-01-25 $2.48 $2.31 +7.4% +1.9% +0.5%
2021-10-26 $2.27 $2.07 +9.7% +3.0% -6.0%
2021-07-27 $2.17 $1.92 +13.0% +5.0% +3.1%
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY — how consensus moved after each print
PrintEPS rev%Rev rev%PT rev%DirGuidance
2026-07-29 — — — — raised
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
Model Portfolio Status HELD
Weight
12.5%
Entry
$487.65
2026-08-03
Stop
$463.27
P&L
+5.8%
Opened score
0.907
Score decomposition (2026-08-10)
Mech 0.788 VALIDATED News adj +0.150 UNPROVEN LIVE Surprise adj +0.000 COMMODITY
▲ Bull case
Final 0.938 (#2); Q4 Azure +43% vs 39-40% guided; 30M+ paid AI seats; val=1.0.
▼ Bear case
Cloud-layer overlap with AMZN. mech 0.788 (solid, not extreme). Top-up is dust ($0.39).
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE — UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▲ bullish long 2026-08-12
Azure $100B milestone hit ahead of analyst models; Copilot seat count beat whisper estimates; FQ1 guidance slightly above consensus sustains the beat-and-raise streak.
source ↗
▲ bullish long 2026-08-05
Azure acceleration to +43% exceeded feared slowdown; Anthropic stake added $3.2B gain; market had lowered expectations amid AI spend skepticism — +16% reflects better-than-feared outcome, not just a normal beat.
source ↗
▲ bullish long 2026-08-03
Azure accelerated to 43% vs guided 39-40% — a significant beat on the key metric; $4.74 EPS vs $4.24 consensus (~12% beat); 30M+ paid AI seats demonstrates tangible monetization; sustained +15% stock move (not just AH spike) signals institutional re-rating of AI revenue durability, not just a one-quarter blip.
source ↗
▲ bullish near 2026-07-30
EPS beat by $0.41 and Azure grew 43% vs ~39% consensus estimate; capex guidance not raised beyond prior plan calmed FCF fears — clean sweep of expectations with no negative surprises
source ↗
● neutral near 2026-07-28
GOOGL beat on revenue and Cloud (+82%) yet fell 5-7% on capex hike — MSFT faces same dynamic; Azure +40% Q3 beat set institutional bar near 40%+ for Q4, and $190B FY capex plan already flagged; market reaction will hinge on capex language, not the revenue number.
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$556.42
+7.8% from current
Median PT
$550.00
High PT
$690.00
Low PT
$440.00
Current
$516.17
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
⚠ Deterioration Alerts
DateTypeSeverityDetail
2026-06-22 range_signal medium Near 52w-low (position=0.0555) [near-52w-low — position signal, may fire on an up day]
2026-06-02 deterioration medium Condition (a) change_pct=-4.17% tripped. Single-day drop below -4% threshold.