Stock Demon Overview Strategy Portfolio Earnings Digest Health Architecture Private cockpit · Not investment advice
memory ▲ HELD

Micron Technology MU

Price
$1,082.28
+0.2% today
Mkt Cap
$1.22T
Beta
2.22
52w Range
84%
pos in 52w lo→hi
RVOL
0.48
First trade
2021-06-01
Price History VALIDATED
50d MA (orange) · 200d MA (purple) · Price (blue)
Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY — slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
  • The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
  • Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA 7.7x
12%ile
P/E 15.9x
7%ile
P/S 3.6x
55%ile
FYEV/EBITDAP/EP/SRevenueEPS
2025 7.67x 15.95x 3.64x $37.4B $7.65
2024 12.59x 136.53x 4.21x $25.1B $0.70
2023 37.00x neg 4.92x $15.5B $-5.34
2022 3.76x 7.34x 2.07x $30.8B $7.81
2021 6.37x 14.15x 2.99x $27.7B $5.23
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
DateEPS actEPS estEPS surp% Rev surp%Excess/21d
2026-03-18 $12.20 $9.19 +32.8% +19.5% -18.0%
2025-12-17 $4.78 $3.96 +20.7% +5.7% +43.9%
2025-09-23 $3.03 $2.86 +5.9% +0.9% +22.0%
2025-06-25 $1.91 $1.60 +19.4% +4.9% -18.8%
2025-03-20 $1.56 $1.43 +9.1% +2.0% -11.8%
2024-12-18 $1.79 $1.75 +2.3% -0.1% +4.0%
2024-09-25 $1.18 $1.12 +5.4% +1.3% -4.7%
2024-06-26 $0.62 $0.48 +29.1% +2.1% -9.3%
2024-03-20 $0.42 $-0.25 +266.2% +8.9% +6.9%
2023-12-20 $-0.95 $-0.99 +4.0% -1.7% -4.9%
2023-09-27 $-1.07 $-1.18 +9.3% +2.5% +6.0%
2023-06-28 $-1.43 $-1.58 +9.5% +2.9% +4.8%
2023-03-28 $-1.91 $-0.66 -189.4% -0.7% +1.9%
2022-12-21 $-0.04 $-0.01 -194.6% -1.2% +11.4%
2022-09-29 $1.45 $1.30 +11.5% -1.3% +1.1%
2022-06-30 $2.59 $2.43 +6.6% -0.0% -0.3%
2022-03-29 $2.14 $1.97 +8.6% +3.4% -1.8%
2021-12-20 $2.16 $2.11 +2.4% +2.2% -1.1%
2021-09-28 $2.42 $2.33 +3.9% — -9.7%
2021-06-30 $1.88 $1.72 +9.3% — -5.3%
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY — how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
Model Portfolio Status HELD
Weight
12.5%
Entry
$937.00
2026-07-13
Stop
$787.66
P&L
+15.5%
Opened score
0.798
Score decomposition (2026-08-03)
Mech 0.748 VALIDATED News adj +0.150 UNPROVEN LIVE Surprise adj +0.000 COMMODITY
▲ Bull case
Samsung HBM multi-year deal; blowout Q3; HBM4 fully allocated at premium; still cheap on own-hist EV/EBITDA (0.88 val).
▼ Bear case
Below 50d MA (-15%); CXMT China DRAM entrant is longer-term risk. kb_lessons: signals aligned, no red flag.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE — UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▲ bullish near 2026-08-12
Retail sold Micron on competitor IPO hype; FQ4 fundamentals intact and FY2026 consensus upgraded – selloff is a sentiment-driven expectations mismatch, not demand deterioration.
source ↗
▲ bullish long 2026-08-07
HBM demand thesis confirmed by two independent signals (Anthropic partnership + SpaceX AI memory callout); stock is -31% from highs despite intact fundamentals — expectations had been reset too far bearish after the June peak
source ↗
● neutral near 2026-08-06
HBM demand is structurally sound (Samsung deal, HBM4 sold out) but macro derating of AI semis group pulling MU down with it; prior 20% bounce in 4 days partially reverts — no fundamental catalyst shift, just sentiment mean-reversion vs elevated group expectations.
source ↗
● neutral near 2026-08-05
Selloff exceeded news flow; Samsung record quarter is a positive HBM/AI memory read-through; BofA reiterate Buy with 'No Real Change in Fundamentals' framing validates dip-is-noise thesis; earnings Sep 21.
source ↗
▲ bullish long 2026-07-31
MU sold off on CXMT IPO threat (new Chinese DRAM rival); Samsung deal restores confidence and counters bear narrative — the -10% slide overshot the actual risk
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$1,542.50
+42.5% from current
Median PT
$1,500.00
High PT
$2,200.00
Low PT
$1,100.00
Current
$1,082.28
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
⚠ Deterioration Alerts
DateTypeSeverityDetail
2026-07-31 price_drop medium down -5.95% (exceeds -4% threshold)
2026-07-29 deterioration medium Condition (a): change_pct=-9.94%
2026-07-28 price_drop high Condition 1: -8.85% single-day drop
2026-07-24 deterioration medium Condition: (a) -6.99% single-day drop
2026-07-16 deterioration medium condition: sharp drop -5.65%