Stock Demon Overview Strategy Portfolio Earnings Digest Health Architecture Private cockpit · Not investment advice
memory ▲ HELD

Micron Technology MU

Price
$820.53
-8.9% today
Mkt Cap
$926.7B
Beta
2.14
52w Range
62%
pos in 52w lo→hi
RVOL
1.12
First trade
2021-06-01
Price History VALIDATED
50d MA (orange) · 200d MA (purple) · Price (blue)
Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY — slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
  • The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
  • Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA 7.7x
12%ile
P/E 15.9x
7%ile
P/S 3.6x
55%ile
FYEV/EBITDAP/EP/SRevenueEPS
2025 7.67x 15.95x 3.64x $37.4B $7.65
2024 12.59x 136.53x 4.21x $25.1B $0.70
2023 37.00x neg 4.92x $15.5B $-5.34
2022 3.76x 7.34x 2.07x $30.8B $7.81
2021 6.37x 14.15x 2.99x $27.7B $5.23
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
DateEPS actEPS estEPS surp% Rev surp%Excess/21d
2026-03-18 $12.20 $9.19 +32.8% +19.5% -18.0%
2025-12-17 $4.78 $3.96 +20.7% +5.7% +43.9%
2025-09-23 $3.03 $2.86 +5.9% +0.9% +22.0%
2025-06-25 $1.91 $1.60 +19.4% +4.9% -18.8%
2025-03-20 $1.56 $1.43 +9.1% +2.0% -11.8%
2024-12-18 $1.79 $1.75 +2.3% -0.1% +4.0%
2024-09-25 $1.18 $1.12 +5.4% +1.3% -4.7%
2024-06-26 $0.62 $0.48 +29.1% +2.1% -9.3%
2024-03-20 $0.42 $-0.25 +266.2% +8.9% +6.9%
2023-12-20 $-0.95 $-0.99 +4.0% -1.7% -4.9%
2023-09-27 $-1.07 $-1.18 +9.3% +2.5% +6.0%
2023-06-28 $-1.43 $-1.58 +9.5% +2.9% +4.8%
2023-03-28 $-1.91 $-0.66 -189.4% -0.7% +1.9%
2022-12-21 $-0.04 $-0.01 -194.6% -1.2% +11.4%
2022-09-29 $1.45 $1.30 +11.5% -1.3% +1.1%
2022-06-30 $2.59 $2.43 +6.6% -0.0% -0.3%
2022-03-29 $2.14 $1.97 +8.6% +3.4% -1.8%
2021-12-20 $2.16 $2.11 +2.4% +2.2% -1.1%
2021-09-28 $2.42 $2.33 +3.9% — -9.7%
2021-06-30 $1.88 $1.72 +9.3% — -5.3%
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY — how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
Model Portfolio Status HELD
Weight
12.5%
Entry
$937.00
2026-07-13
Stop
$862.04
P&L
-12.4%
Opened score
0.798
Score decomposition (2026-07-27)
Mech 0.858 VALIDATED News adj +0.150 UNPROVEN LIVE Surprise adj +0.000 COMMODITY
▲ Bull case
r3m +74%, r6m +107%; val_raw 0.88 (EV/EBITDA 7.7 — cheap vs own history); blowout Q3, KeyBanc PT $1,750.
▼ Bear case
r3m +74% is peak-momentum territory (kb_lesson #7 stretched-momentum flag). Cheap valuation cushions but cyclical memory reversion is the tail risk. Down −22% from post-earnings highs already; further mean-reversion possible.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE — UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▼ bearish near 2026-07-28
CXMT 465% IPO pop and Apple-testing report spooked market despite CXMT having zero HBM exposure — analysts (UBS $1,625, KeyBanc $1,750) say long-term thesis intact, but retail selling commodity-DRAM narrative missed that CXMT is a generation behind in AI memory.
source ↗
▲ bullish near 2026-07-24
Q4 guidance crushed consensus by 15%—one of the largest guidance beats in memory history; 16 LTAs lock in demand across hyperscalers and automakers; stock up 700% YoY but fundamental beat was large enough to reset the bar higher
source ↗
▼ bearish near 2026-07-21
Classic retail trap: headline numbers were record-setting but stock sold off hard on CXMT IPO fears, potential HBM export controls, and TSMC capex overhang — beat vs reported consensus but failed buy-side whisper
source ↗
● neutral near 2026-07-17
Strong $33.5B Q3 guidance and Citi upside catalyst watch are bullish; but SKHY Nasdaq listing lets funds that were MU-only-by-default now rotate into KRX-equivalent - technical supply overhang on a stock with great fundamentals
source ↗
▲ bullish near 2026-07-16
KeyBanc PT raise signals conviction that pullback (~22% from highs) is overdone given $41.46B Q3 beat vs $35.84B expected; Anthropic partnership and 16 long-term agreements lock in ~50% of revenue—analyst sees dip as opportunity, not distribution
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$1,575.91
+92.1% from current
Median PT
$1,512.50
High PT
$2,200.00
Low PT
$1,100.00
Current
$820.53
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
⚠ Deterioration Alerts
DateTypeSeverityDetail
2026-07-28 price_drop high Condition 1: -8.85% single-day drop
2026-07-24 deterioration medium Condition: (a) -6.99% single-day drop
2026-07-16 deterioration medium condition: sharp drop -5.65%
2026-07-15 price_drop medium Very large drop: -8.02% (condition a: change_pct ≤ -4%)
2026-07-14 deterioration medium day -4.3%; big-drop <=-4%