Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2025 |
45.43x |
761.00x |
39.98x |
$530M |
$0.11 |
| 2024 |
-17.00x |
neg |
66.24x |
$118M |
$-2.28 |
| 2023 |
-25.44x |
30.77x |
355.02x |
$21M |
$0.65 |
| 2022 |
-73.85x |
9.85x |
545.19x |
$14M |
$2.03 |
| 2021 |
33.50x |
neg |
1.52x |
$4.8B |
$-0.54 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-05-13 |
$-0.23 |
$-0.77 |
+70.0% |
+6.4% |
n/a |
| 2026-02-12 |
$-0.99 |
$-0.58 |
-70.7% |
-7.5% |
+17.6% |
| 2025-11-11 |
$-0.39 |
$-0.56 |
+29.9% |
-7.5% |
-4.3% |
| 2025-08-07 |
$-0.38 |
$-0.50 |
+24.0% |
-0.3% |
+35.7% |
| 2025-02-20 |
$-0.43 |
$-0.39 |
-9.3% |
-34.8% |
-17.1% |
| 2024-10-31 |
$-0.33 |
— |
— |
— |
+33.9% |
| 2024-08-01 |
$0.68 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2024-04-27 |
$-0.20 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2024-04-26 |
$-0.22 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2023-09-30 |
$0.23 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2023-06-30 |
$0.47 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2023-03-31 |
$0.16 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2022-12-31 |
$0.18 |
$0.20 |
-7.6% |
+4.2% |
n/a |
| 2022-09-30 |
$1.93 |
$0.04 |
+4306.4% |
+9.2% |
n/a |
| 2022-06-30 |
$0.28 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2022-03-31 |
$-0.49 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2021-12-31 |
$-0.16 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2021-09-30 |
$-0.13 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2021-06-30 |
$-0.15 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
| 2021-03-31 |
$-0.11 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY
— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
● neutral
near
2026-08-12
Revenue 4x is priced in; key question is whether management raises full-year guidance amid capacity constraints; Burry short vs Goldman $286 target creates wide outcome distribution.
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-08-10
Burry short is capital-structure vs. demand thesis bet—Q1 revenue 684% growth is real, but $775M debt + equity dilution risk creates binary into Aug 12 earnings; Q2 beat may not move stock if leverage concerns dominate
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-08-07
Market repricing execution risk: $20-25B capex plan with no meaningful revenue until 2027, Piper Sandler neutral initiation, and wide PT range ($129-$410) all signal uncertain monetization timeline vs aggressive spending pace
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-08-05
$1B+ multi-year deal provides concrete revenue visibility in AI cloud compute; validates NBIS growth thesis post-Yandex restructuring; +14% single-day move reflects speculative character — sentiment-driven rather than fundamentals-driven.
source ↗
▲ bullish
near
2026-08-04
Nvidia 9.3% stake formally embeds NBIS in the AI infrastructure ecosystem; revenue consensus likely conservative vs $1B+ Reflection AI deal signed July 30—Aug 12 upside surprise probable
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$272.70
+14.9% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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