Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA45.4x
100%ile
P/E761.0x
100%ile
P/S40.0x
7%ile
FY
EV/EBITDA
P/E
P/S
Revenue
EPS
2025
45.43x
761.00x
39.98x
$530M
$0.11
2024
-17.00x
neg
66.24x
$118M
$-2.28
2023
-25.44x
30.77x
355.02x
$21M
$0.65
2022
-73.85x
9.85x
545.19x
$14M
$2.03
2021
33.50x
neg
1.52x
$4.8B
$-0.54
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
Date
EPS act
EPS est
EPS surp%
Rev surp%
Excess/21d
2026-05-13
$-0.23
$-0.77
+70.0%
+6.4%
n/a
2026-02-12
$-0.99
$-0.58
-70.7%
-7.5%
+17.6%
2025-11-11
$-0.39
$-0.56
+29.9%
-7.5%
-4.3%
2025-08-07
$-0.38
$-0.50
+24.0%
-0.3%
+35.7%
2025-02-20
$-0.43
$-0.39
-9.3%
-34.8%
-17.1%
2024-10-31
$-0.33
—
—
—
+33.9%
2024-08-01
$0.68
—
—
—
n/a
2024-04-27
$-0.20
—
—
—
n/a
2024-04-26
$-0.22
—
—
—
n/a
2023-09-30
$0.23
—
—
—
n/a
2023-06-30
$0.47
—
—
—
n/a
2023-03-31
$0.16
—
—
—
n/a
2022-12-31
$0.18
$0.20
-7.6%
+4.2%
n/a
2022-09-30
$1.93
$0.04
+4306.4%
+9.2%
n/a
2022-06-30
$0.28
—
—
—
n/a
2022-03-31
$-0.49
—
—
—
n/a
2021-12-31
$-0.16
—
—
—
n/a
2021-09-30
$-0.13
—
—
—
n/a
2021-06-30
$-0.15
—
—
—
n/a
2021-03-31
$-0.11
—
—
—
n/a
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
Model Portfolio Status
Last recorded action: sell on 2026-06-22 (mech —, news_adj —, surp —)
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▲ bullishnear2026-07-23
NVDA 13G filing made strategic backing public/official; market expected some NVDA support given prior investment but 9.3% ownership exceeded expectations — relief rally on uncertainty resolution.
Upgrade comes after -36% correction; $200 PT implies modest upside vs $238 consensus — buy-side thesis is Meta cloud competition risk overstated given Reflection AI deal and asset-light model; but NY data center moratorium adds unexpected geographic headwind.
Debt facility is strategically sound (backed by investment-grade contracted cashflows, $50B backlog) but neocloud sector re-rating dragged NBIS down 14%; Northland raised target to $410 — reaction is worse than the news warrants
Reflection AI $1B deal is positive but Nebius down 31% over the month signals market views Meta's cloud platform as existential to the $27B Meta backlog; asset-light model is innovative but unproven and NY moratorium limits US expansion.
NBIS had $27B Meta agreement as anchor; Meta own-cloud report signals structural demand risk that was invisible to retail; 36% drawdown in a month is sector repricing not noise - neocloud trade derating wholesale
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