Stock Demon Overview Strategy Portfolio Earnings Digest Health Architecture Private cockpit · Not investment advice
power

NRG Energy NRG

Price
$127.56
-6.5% today
Mkt Cap
$26.9B
Beta
1.20
52w Range
11%
pos in 52w lo→hi
RVOL
0.93
First trade
2021-06-01
Price History VALIDATED
50d MA (orange) · 200d MA (purple) · Price (blue)
Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY — slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
  • The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
  • Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA 11.3x
83%ile
P/E 38.9x
100%ile
P/S 1.0x
100%ile
FYEV/EBITDAP/EP/SRevenueEPS
2025 11.32x 38.93x 1.01x $30.7B $4.09
2024 8.17x 17.55x 0.66x $28.1B $5.14
2023 12.70x neg 0.41x $28.8B $-1.12
2022 5.49x 6.15x 0.24x $31.5B $5.17
2021 4.45x 4.82x 0.39x $27.0B $8.93
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
DateEPS actEPS estEPS surp% Rev surp%Excess/21d
2026-05-06 $1.48 $1.77 -16.4% +22.1% n/a
2026-02-24 $1.03 $0.97 +6.0% +16.3% -14.0%
2025-11-06 $2.75 $2.14 +28.5% +2.3% -3.7%
2025-08-06 $1.68 $1.74 -3.4% +4.5% -5.6%
2025-05-12 $2.62 $1.75 +49.7% +8.4% -16.1%
2025-02-26 $1.52 $1.04 +46.2% -12.7% +2.5%
2024-11-08 $1.85 $1.95 -5.1% -23.0% -4.1%
2024-08-08 $1.48 $1.55 -4.5% -20.1% -3.3%
2024-05-07 $0.80 $0.66 +20.7% -2.0% -4.7%
2024-02-28 $1.14 $0.94 +21.3% +5.1% +17.4%
2023-11-02 $1.41 $4.04 -65.1% -27.4% +1.0%
2023-08-08 $1.25 $2.47 -49.4% -17.8% +4.2%
2023-05-04 $0.86 $0.90 -4.4% +117.2% -13.1%
2023-02-16 $1.64 $1.43 +14.7% +154.1% -3.0%
2022-11-07 $0.29 $1.43 -79.7% +7.8% -33.8%
2022-08-04 $0.33 $0.31 +6.5% +9.0% +17.4%
2022-05-06 $7.17 $0.55 +1203.6% +76.1% +4.1%
2022-02-24 $-0.97 $-1.34 +27.6% +102.0% -4.5%
2021-11-04 $6.60 $2.25 +193.3% +49.9% +3.2%
2021-08-05 $1.20 $2.41 -50.2% +0.0% +1.9%
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY — how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
Model Portfolio Status
Not in model portfolio.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE — UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
No news recorded yet.
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$202.56
+58.8% from current
Median PT
$209.00
High PT
$226.00
Low PT
$165.00
Current
$127.56
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
⚠ Deterioration Alerts
DateTypeSeverityDetail
2026-07-28 price_drop high Conditions 1 & 3: -6.55% drop + [near-52w-low — position signal, may fire on an up day]
2026-07-16 deterioration medium condition: [near-52w-low — position signal, may fire on an up day]