Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA31.4x
0%ile
P/E37.8x
0%ile
P/S21.0x
44%ile
FY
EV/EBITDA
P/E
P/S
Revenue
EPS
2026
31.43x
37.82x
21.03x
$215.9B
$4.93
2025
33.78x
39.87x
22.28x
$130.5B
$2.97
2024
43.45x
51.63x
25.32x
$60.9B
$1.21
2023
81.05x
106.44x
17.67x
$27.0B
$0.18
2022
54.72x
62.79x
22.71x
$26.9B
$0.39
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
Date
EPS act
EPS est
EPS surp%
Rev surp%
Excess/21d
2026-05-20
$1.87
$1.76
+6.3%
+4.1%
n/a
2026-02-25
$1.62
$1.54
+5.2%
+3.0%
-3.4%
2025-11-19
$1.30
$1.26
+3.2%
+3.7%
-8.4%
2025-08-27
$1.05
$1.01
+4.0%
+1.5%
-11.4%
2025-05-28
$0.81
$0.74
+9.9%
+1.7%
-2.0%
2025-02-26
$0.89
$0.85
+5.0%
+3.2%
+3.2%
2024-11-20
$0.81
$0.75
+8.0%
+5.8%
-7.5%
2024-08-28
$0.68
$0.65
+5.4%
+4.4%
-6.5%
2024-05-22
$0.61
$0.56
+8.9%
+5.9%
+13.6%
2024-02-21
$0.52
$0.46
+13.0%
+9.2%
+9.3%
2023-11-21
$0.40
$0.34
+17.6%
+11.2%
-7.7%
2023-08-23
$0.27
$0.21
+28.6%
+20.3%
-10.2%
2023-05-24
$0.11
$0.09
+22.2%
+10.4%
-0.0%
2023-02-22
$0.09
$0.08
+12.5%
+0.7%
+13.2%
2022-11-16
$0.06
$0.07
-14.3%
+2.6%
+8.8%
2022-08-24
$0.05
$0.06
-16.7%
+0.1%
-11.4%
2022-05-25
$0.14
$0.13
+7.7%
+2.0%
-2.8%
2022-02-16
$0.13
$0.12
+8.3%
+3.1%
+10.7%
2021-11-17
$0.12
$0.11
+9.1%
-4.2%
-11.0%
2021-08-18
$0.10
$0.10
+0.0%
-4.5%
+5.5%
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
EV/EBITDA at bottom of 6y history (val=1.0), bullish news lean, vs_ma50 +9%. Not stretched (vs_ma200 +15%).
▼ Bear case
Silicon layer concentration (already hold MRVL, MU). AI-capex cycle risk shared with the layer. Mech 0.725 mostly boosted by news+val, not by pure trend.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
● neutralnear2026-08-12
Street and management aligned at ~$91B so bar is symmetric; unmodeled China upside exists but geopolitically uncertain; stock needs whisper beat to move materially higher.
Exclusive SpaceX partnership validates Nvidia dominance beyond hyperscalers; not in guidance and adds incremental demand pull-through ahead of Aug 26 print
Stock at ~$210 vs $309 avg analyst target creates a high buy-side bar for Aug 26 print; Michael Burry $250B demand risk flag is contrarian minority view vs 36-buy consensus.
Consensus at $93.5B but 6.69% upward estimate revision over 3 months means whisper is higher; stock up only 2% YTD while S&P +7% despite 96% projected Q2 growth — bar is high going into Aug 26 print; China H200 partial approval would be upside surprise.
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