Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 7-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2026 |
26.11x |
41.78x |
10.60x |
$67.4B |
$5.94 |
| 2025 |
23.21x |
37.11x |
8.04x |
$57.4B |
$4.46 |
| 2024 |
18.96x |
30.76x |
6.07x |
$53.0B |
$3.81 |
| 2023 |
19.55x |
33.63x |
5.72x |
$50.0B |
$3.15 |
| 2022 |
18.38x |
28.88x |
4.58x |
$42.4B |
$2.49 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-03-10 |
$1.79 |
$1.70 |
+5.3% |
+1.6% |
-26.5% |
| 2025-12-10 |
$2.26 |
$1.64 |
+37.8% |
-0.8% |
+0.5% |
| 2025-09-09 |
$1.47 |
$1.48 |
-0.7% |
-0.8% |
-24.6% |
| 2025-06-11 |
$1.70 |
$1.64 |
+3.7% |
+2.1% |
+8.3% |
| 2025-03-10 |
$1.47 |
$1.49 |
-1.3% |
-1.7% |
-0.4% |
| 2024-12-09 |
$1.47 |
$1.48 |
-0.7% |
-0.4% |
-14.0% |
| 2024-09-09 |
$1.39 |
$1.33 |
+4.5% |
+0.6% |
-5.6% |
| 2024-06-11 |
$1.63 |
$1.65 |
-1.2% |
-1.9% |
-3.6% |
| 2024-03-11 |
$1.41 |
$1.38 |
+2.2% |
-0.0% |
-6.0% |
| 2023-12-11 |
$1.34 |
$1.32 |
+1.5% |
-0.8% |
+1.2% |
| 2023-09-11 |
$1.19 |
$1.14 |
+4.4% |
-0.1% |
-1.0% |
| 2023-06-12 |
$1.67 |
$1.58 |
+5.7% |
+0.8% |
-0.9% |
| 2023-03-09 |
$1.22 |
$1.20 |
+1.7% |
-9.9% |
+6.0% |
| 2022-12-12 |
$1.21 |
$1.17 |
+3.4% |
+2.6% |
+10.6% |
| 2022-09-12 |
$1.03 |
$1.07 |
-3.7% |
+1.0% |
-1.3% |
| 2022-06-13 |
$1.54 |
$1.37 |
+12.4% |
+2.0% |
+0.4% |
| 2022-03-10 |
$1.13 |
$1.18 |
-4.2% |
+0.1% |
+2.2% |
| 2021-12-09 |
$1.21 |
$1.11 |
+9.0% |
-1.4% |
-14.3% |
| 2021-09-13 |
$1.03 |
$0.97 |
+6.2% |
+2.4% |
+15.5% |
| 2021-06-15 |
$1.54 |
$1.31 |
+17.6% |
+1.6% |
+14.5% |
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY
— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▼ bearish
near
2026-07-27
Guidance beat and record results but stock sold off on capex surge — retail trap: headline beat masked by capex explosion from $35B to $50B and rising balance-sheet risk
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-07-21
Retail saw the beat; institutions saw $40B new financing + 21K layoffs as signals that Oracle is stretching financially to fund AI infra — market sold the news despite headline beat, a classic expectation-divergence trade
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-07-15
RETAIL TRAP: William Blair Conviction List headline reads bullish but the balance sheet is deteriorating sharply -- negative FCF of $23.7B, 48% increase in total liabilities, and 21,000 job cuts signal a company stretched thin by its AI buildout; stock near 52-week low despite consensus Buy.
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-14
If Piper is right, street is 10% too low on OCI revenue; typical underestimation pattern of cloud hyperscaler ramp pace — OCI growing faster than legacy consensus models suggest.
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-06-24
Classic retail trap: EPS beat 11.6% and revenue beat, but Oracle announced plan to raise $40B in FY2027 — double the $20B analysts modeled — for AI buildout; market sold 10% on dilution concern, punishing the beat headline.
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$249.18
+107.7% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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Private cockpit · Not investment advice