Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA12.7x
43%ile
P/E32.7x
100%ile
P/S4.1x
44%ile
FY
EV/EBITDA
P/E
P/S
Revenue
EPS
2025
12.71x
32.67x
4.09x
$44.3B
$5.06
2024
15.49x
18.71x
4.87x
$39.0B
$9.09
2023
13.24x
17.17x
3.46x
$35.8B
$6.47
2022
8.13x
9.81x
2.87x
$44.2B
$11.52
2021
12.49x
16.12x
4.35x
$33.6B
$8.00
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
Date
EPS act
EPS est
EPS surp%
Rev surp%
Excess/21d
2026-04-29
$2.65
$2.56
+3.5%
+0.1%
+19.8%
2026-02-04
$3.50
$3.39
+3.2%
+1.1%
-6.7%
2025-11-05
$3.00
$2.87
+4.5%
+4.7%
+1.2%
2025-07-30
$2.77
$2.71
+2.2%
+0.3%
+10.9%
2025-04-30
$2.85
$2.82
+1.1%
+3.1%
-12.6%
2025-02-05
$3.41
$2.96
+15.2%
+6.9%
+11.6%
2024-11-06
$2.69
$2.56
+5.1%
+3.4%
-11.4%
2024-07-31
$2.33
$2.25
+3.6%
+1.9%
+1.8%
2024-05-01
$2.44
$2.32
+5.2%
+0.4%
+4.6%
2024-01-31
$2.75
$2.37
+16.0%
+4.5%
-2.6%
2023-11-01
$2.02
$1.92
+5.2%
+7.5%
+2.0%
2023-08-02
$1.87
$1.81
+3.3%
-0.6%
-5.9%
2023-05-03
$2.15
$2.16
-0.5%
+1.9%
-14.8%
2023-02-02
$2.37
$2.34
+1.3%
-1.4%
-7.0%
2022-11-02
$3.13
$3.13
+0.0%
+0.3%
+6.1%
2022-07-27
$2.96
$2.87
+3.1%
+0.7%
-4.0%
2022-04-27
$3.21
$2.91
+10.3%
+5.0%
-6.1%
2022-02-02
$3.23
$3.01
+7.3%
+2.5%
-8.2%
2021-11-03
$2.55
$2.26
+12.8%
+5.4%
+11.0%
2021-07-28
$1.92
$1.68
+14.3%
-9.0%
-6.0%
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
Model Portfolio Status
Not in model portfolio.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
No news recorded yet.
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$220.71
+35.5% from current
Median PT
$220.00
High PT
$300.00
Low PT
$120.00
Current
$162.88
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
⚠ Deterioration Alerts
Date
Type
Severity
Detail
2026-07-28
price_drop
high
Condition 1: -4.21% single-day drop
2026-07-16
deterioration
medium
condition: sharp drop -4.14%
2026-06-23
deterioration
high
Conditions: (a) -8.01% drop, (d) -8.00% vs prev snapshot
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