Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2025 |
21.59x |
27.69x |
1.32x |
$22.0B |
$1.77 |
| 2024 |
38.31x |
45.89x |
3.22x |
$15.0B |
$1.77 |
| 2023 |
17.14x |
11.49x |
1.95x |
$7.1B |
$2.17 |
| 2022 |
6.63x |
3.34x |
0.41x |
$5.2B |
$1.21 |
| 2021 |
4.52x |
6.40x |
0.35x |
$5.2B |
$0.55 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-05-05 |
$0.84 |
$0.62 |
+36.1% |
-17.3% |
n/a |
| 2026-02-03 |
$0.69 |
$0.49 |
+40.8% |
+21.7% |
-9.5% |
| 2025-11-04 |
$0.35 |
$0.37 |
-6.6% |
-14.0% |
-14.8% |
| 2025-08-05 |
$0.41 |
$0.45 |
-7.9% |
-3.7% |
-16.3% |
| 2025-05-06 |
$0.31 |
$0.41 |
-24.5% |
-8.1% |
+5.0% |
| 2025-02-25 |
$0.51 |
$0.58 |
-12.7% |
+0.5% |
-17.9% |
| 2024-11-05 |
$0.75 |
$0.73 |
+2.5% |
-6.2% |
+83.1% |
| 2024-08-06 |
$0.63 |
$0.81 |
-22.4% |
+0.7% |
-24.6% |
| 2024-04-30 |
$0.67 |
$0.58 |
+15.5% |
-27.3% |
-6.3% |
| 2024-01-29 |
$0.56 |
$0.55 |
+1.8% |
+20.0% |
+55.0% |
| 2023-11-01 |
$0.34 |
$0.32 |
+6.3% |
+2.7% |
-0.4% |
| 2023-08-08 |
$0.35 |
$0.34 |
+2.9% |
+4.9% |
+3.5% |
| 2023-05-02 |
$0.16 |
$0.17 |
-5.9% |
-24.8% |
+44.5% |
| 2023-01-31 |
$0.33 |
$0.31 |
+6.5% |
+3.2% |
+25.4% |
| 2022-11-01 |
$0.34 |
$0.31 |
+9.7% |
+12.0% |
-6.5% |
| 2022-08-09 |
$0.26 |
$0.23 |
+13.0% |
+5.1% |
+11.6% |
| 2022-05-03 |
$0.16 |
$0.15 |
+6.7% |
+9.9% |
+0.4% |
| 2022-02-01 |
$0.09 |
$0.08 |
+12.5% |
+1.7% |
+3.0% |
| 2021-11-02 |
$0.06 |
$0.04 |
+54.7% |
+37.7% |
+0.4% |
| 2021-08-10 |
$0.08 |
$0.08 |
+0.0% |
+0.0% |
-5.6% |
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY
— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▲ bullish
near
2026-07-23
Gross margin nearly doubled vs guidance (8.2-8.4% to 15-17%) driven by customer/product mix — market had feared structural margin depression; clear beat vs the prevailing bear thesis, with record orders adding long-horizon optionality.
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-07-21
Hold consensus with only 3 Strong Buys out of 20 analysts; expectations had priced in governance recovery but legal scrutiny keeps institutional buying limited — rally needed a cleaner story
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-07-14
Legal/regulatory risk far exceeds expectations; market had largely priced out SMCI prior accounting scandal overhang — fresh criminal probe re-introduces tail risk not in analyst models, especially with China export restrictions already a flashpoint.
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-07-14
$7B equity raise signals dilution risk; while $39B backlog sounds bullish, capital structure concerns and legal overhang keep consensus at Hold — retail may buy the 'AI server demand' headline and miss the dilution.
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-06-24
Analyst preference for SMCI over NBIS due to broader customer base and improving estimates signals growing recognition of SMCI execution vs prior accounting/governance concerns — sentiment reversal vs prior bearish expectations.
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$42.33
+48.8% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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