SMR — NuScale Power — Stock Demon

Price History VALIDATED

50d MA (orange) · 200d MA (purple) · Price (blue)

Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY — slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical

Research notes (read before interpreting):

The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.

Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.

P/S 73.7x

9%ile

FY	EV/EBITDA	P/E	P/S	Revenue	EPS
2025	-6.53x	neg	73.70x	$31M	$-2.17
2024	-24.85x	neg	45.13x	$37M	$-1.47
2023	-2.37x	neg	10.58x	$23M	$-0.80
2022	-6.81x	neg	44.12x	$12M	$-0.51
2021	-9.26x	neg	152.85x	$3M	$-2.35

Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY

Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.

Date	EPS act	EPS est	EPS surp%	Rev surp%	Excess/21d
2026-05-07	$-0.14	$-0.11	-27.3%	-91.9%	n/a
2026-02-26	$-0.80	$-0.10	-700.0%	-79.0%	-10.8%
2025-11-06	$-1.85	$-0.14	-1225.0%	-25.5%	-30.1%
2025-08-07	$-0.13	$-0.12	-8.3%	-30.9%	-13.7%
2025-05-12	$-0.11	$-0.13	+16.5%	+310.8%	+74.1%
2025-03-03	$0.60	$-0.11	+645.5%	+1382.9%	-5.7%
2024-11-07	$-0.18	$-0.14	-29.0%	-87.8%	-11.5%
2024-08-08	$-0.31	$-0.13	-138.5%	-86.0%	-11.4%
2024-05-09	$-0.21	$-0.21	+0.0%	-83.3%	+34.2%
2024-03-14	$-0.25	$-0.22	-13.6%	-54.3%	-37.8%
2023-11-09	$-0.26	$-0.16	-62.5%	-43.4%	+28.2%
2023-08-09	$-0.13	$-0.11	-18.2%	-69.5%	-18.5%
2023-05-09	$-0.16	$-0.08	-88.8%	+0.0%	-20.3%
2023-03-15	$-0.18	$-0.02	-950.2%	-76.6%	+0.9%
2022-11-11	$-0.19	$-0.08	-137.5%	-36.6%	-13.3%
2022-08-10	$-0.08	—	—	—	+0.0%
2022-03-10	$-0.64	—	—	—	+5.0%
2021-11-08	$-0.62	—	—	—	-1.9%
2021-08-13	$-0.57	—	—	—	-11.2%
2021-03-31	$-0.58	—	—	—	n/a

Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY — how consensus moved after each print

No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.

Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY

Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.

Model Portfolio Status

Not in model portfolio.

News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE — UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible

▼ bearish long 2026-07-23

Revenue estimate cuts and zero firm orders contrast sharply with retail enthusiasm for SMR nuclear theme; commercial reality (no orders, cash burn, ENTRA1 risk) far lags the narrative — a structural consensus-trap.

source ↗

● neutral long 2026-07-23

6 GW TVA deal is bigger than expected but Truist's Hold/$10 PT anchors street caution — consensus is 'prove it first' given ENTRA1 fraud investigation and $31.5M/qtr cash burn; long-term optionality real but pre-revenue today.

source ↗

▼ bearish near 2026-07-17

Probe alleges NuScale misrepresented commercialization partner ENTRA1 capabilities - execution risk that was invisible to retail chasing the nuclear AI power theme; 31% drawdown signals credibility risk to commercialization timeline

source ↗

▼ bearish near 2026-07-15

Investigative overhang on the ENTRA1 partnership is a direct hit to the thesis -- NuScale sold investors on ENTRA1 experience and now faces fraud allegations; CEO PPA-by-year-end promise is aspirational but the stock has priced in severe credibility discount at -84% from highs.

source ↗

● neutral long 2026-07-14

TVA program progress incremental and in-line with expectations; small modular reactor timeline still measured in years not quarters — relevant for long-horizon AI power thesis but no near-term catalyst to move price.

source ↗

Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat

Consensus PT

$13.67

+66.5% from current

Median PT

$12.00

High PT

$20.00

Low PT

$9.00

Current

$8.21

Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.

⚠ Deterioration Alerts

Date	Type	Severity	Detail
2026-07-28	range_signal	medium	[near-52w-low — position signal, may fire on an up day]
2026-07-27	deterioration	medium	[range_pos 0.026] Condition: (c) near-52w-low — position signal, may fire on an up day
2026-07-24	deterioration	high	Conditions: (a) -7.95% single-day drop; (c) [near-52w-low — position signal, may fire on an up day] (0.018 position)
2026-07-23	deterioration	medium	[near-52w-low — position signal, may fire on an up day]
2026-07-21	near-52w-low	medium	range_pos=0.029 [position signal; may fire on an up day]

NuScale Power SMR