Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2025 |
-6.53x |
neg |
73.70x |
$31M |
$-2.17 |
| 2024 |
-24.85x |
neg |
45.13x |
$37M |
$-1.47 |
| 2023 |
-2.37x |
neg |
10.58x |
$23M |
$-0.80 |
| 2022 |
-6.81x |
neg |
44.12x |
$12M |
$-0.51 |
| 2021 |
-9.26x |
neg |
152.85x |
$3M |
$-2.35 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-05-07 |
$-0.14 |
$-0.11 |
-27.3% |
-91.9% |
n/a |
| 2026-02-26 |
$-0.80 |
$-0.10 |
-700.0% |
-79.0% |
-10.8% |
| 2025-11-06 |
$-1.85 |
$-0.14 |
-1225.0% |
-25.5% |
-30.1% |
| 2025-08-07 |
$-0.13 |
$-0.12 |
-8.3% |
-30.9% |
-13.7% |
| 2025-05-12 |
$-0.11 |
$-0.13 |
+16.5% |
+310.8% |
+74.1% |
| 2025-03-03 |
$0.60 |
$-0.11 |
+645.5% |
+1382.9% |
-5.7% |
| 2024-11-07 |
$-0.18 |
$-0.14 |
-29.0% |
-87.8% |
-11.5% |
| 2024-08-08 |
$-0.31 |
$-0.13 |
-138.5% |
-86.0% |
-11.4% |
| 2024-05-09 |
$-0.21 |
$-0.21 |
+0.0% |
-83.3% |
+34.2% |
| 2024-03-14 |
$-0.25 |
$-0.22 |
-13.6% |
-54.3% |
-37.8% |
| 2023-11-09 |
$-0.26 |
$-0.16 |
-62.5% |
-43.4% |
+28.2% |
| 2023-08-09 |
$-0.13 |
$-0.11 |
-18.2% |
-69.5% |
-18.5% |
| 2023-05-09 |
$-0.16 |
$-0.08 |
-88.8% |
+0.0% |
-20.3% |
| 2023-03-15 |
$-0.18 |
$-0.02 |
-950.2% |
-76.6% |
+0.9% |
| 2022-11-11 |
$-0.19 |
$-0.08 |
-137.5% |
-36.6% |
-13.3% |
| 2022-08-10 |
$-0.08 |
— |
— |
— |
+0.0% |
| 2022-03-10 |
$-0.64 |
— |
— |
— |
+5.0% |
| 2021-11-08 |
$-0.62 |
— |
— |
— |
-1.9% |
| 2021-08-13 |
$-0.57 |
— |
— |
— |
-11.2% |
| 2021-03-31 |
$-0.58 |
— |
— |
— |
n/a |
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▼ bearish
long
2026-08-12
Post-earnings analyst PT cuts and zero groundbreakings signal execution risk is being priced in against elevated SMR hype valuation; revenue estimate of $35.9M for full year remains negligible.
source ↗
▼ bearish
long
2026-08-05
Hold initiation and PT cut both cite TVA project execution delays; Truist explicitly says SMR must prove execution before re-rating; -80% past year reflects sustained disappointment vs nuclear energy hype cycle expectations.
source ↗
▼ bearish
long
2026-08-03
Market expected TVA PPA by now; CEO guidance of 'by end of 2026' reads as slippage; Barclays cut PT from $15 to $11 citing slower-than-expected TVA progress; ENTRA1 fraud probe adds legal uncertainty; stock down 41% YTD reflects skepticism; PPA announcement timing is the sole binary catalyst; Truist Hold $10 initiation signals limited institutional conviction.
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-07-29
Revenue collapse to $0.6M exposes pre-commercial risk; PPA catalyst is binary and speculative; wall street pricing a lottery ticket, not a business yet — mismatched risk vs retail narrative of SMR nuclear boom
source ↗
▼ bearish
long
2026-07-23
Revenue estimate cuts and zero firm orders contrast sharply with retail enthusiasm for SMR nuclear theme; commercial reality (no orders, cash burn, ENTRA1 risk) far lags the narrative — a structural consensus-trap.
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$11.25
+33.7% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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