Stock Demon Overview Strategy Portfolio Earnings Digest Health Architecture Private cockpit · Not investment advice
memory

Seagate Technology STX

Price
$916.83
+1.2% today
Mkt Cap
$205.6B
Beta
2.09
52w Range
76%
pos in 52w lo→hi
RVOL
0.63
First trade
2021-06-01
Price History VALIDATED
50d MA (orange) · 200d MA (purple) · Price (blue)
Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY — slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
  • The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
  • Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 7-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA 42.8x
75%ile
P/E 56.4x
85%ile
P/S 14.7x
100%ile
FYEV/EBITDAP/EP/SRevenueEPS
2026 42.77x 56.41x 14.73x $12.2B $14.54
2025 16.35x 20.41x 3.30x $9.1B $6.93
2024 24.88x 64.54x 3.29x $6.6B $1.60
2023 54.11x neg 1.73x $7.4B $-2.56
2022 8.52x 9.21x 1.30x $11.7B $7.50
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
DateEPS actEPS estEPS surp% Rev surp%Excess/21d
2026-04-28 $4.10 $3.51 +16.8% +5.1% +13.4%
2026-01-27 $3.11 $2.78 +11.9% +3.6% -9.0%
2025-10-28 $2.61 $2.40 +8.8% +3.2% +11.8%
2025-07-29 $2.59 $2.45 +5.7% +0.9% +15.3%
2025-04-29 $1.90 $1.74 +9.2% +1.7% +7.0%
2025-01-21 $2.03 $1.87 +8.6% +0.2% +2.3%
2024-10-22 $1.58 $1.49 +6.0% +1.8% -10.2%
2024-07-23 $1.05 $0.76 +37.8% +0.9% -5.0%
2024-04-23 $0.33 $0.29 +13.2% -1.3% -4.2%
2024-01-24 $0.12 $-0.07 +271.4% +0.4% -13.5%
2023-10-26 $-0.22 $-0.20 -10.0% -5.1% -2.5%
2023-07-26 $-0.18 $-0.23 +21.7% -5.0% +5.7%
2023-04-20 $-0.28 $0.19 -247.4% -5.9% +1.9%
2023-01-25 $0.16 $0.11 +45.5% +3.4% -4.9%
2022-10-26 $0.48 $0.68 -29.4% -3.1% -8.1%
2022-07-21 $1.59 $1.90 -16.3% -5.8% -6.1%
2022-04-27 $1.81 $1.84 -1.6% -0.0% +6.9%
2022-01-26 $2.41 $2.37 +1.7% +0.1% -3.5%
2021-10-22 $2.35 $2.22 +5.9% +0.3% +4.0%
2021-07-21 $2.00 $1.89 +5.8% -3.2% +7.6%
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY — how consensus moved after each print
PrintEPS rev%Rev rev%PT rev%DirGuidance
2026-07-28 — — — — raised
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
Model Portfolio Status
Last recorded action: sell on 2026-06-22 (mech —, news_adj —, surp —)
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE — UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
No news recorded yet.
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$1,130.15
+23.3% from current
Median PT
$1,090.00
High PT
$1,600.00
Low PT
$875.00
Current
$916.83
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
⚠ Deterioration Alerts
DateTypeSeverityDetail
2026-08-07 price_drop medium Daily change: -4.71% [condition: change_pct <= -4]
2026-07-28 price_drop high Condition 1: -8.53% single-day drop
2026-07-27 deterioration medium [drop -4.07%] Condition: (a) large intraday move
2026-07-24 deterioration medium Condition: (a) -6.75% single-day drop
2026-07-16 deterioration medium condition: sharp drop -10.00%