STX — Seagate Technology

Price History VALIDATED

50d MA (orange) · 200d MA (purple) · Price (blue)

Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY — slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical

Research notes (read before interpreting):

The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.

Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.

EV/EBITDA 16.3x

17%ile

P/E 20.4x

20%ile

P/S 3.3x

100%ile

FY	EV/EBITDA	P/E	P/S	Revenue	EPS
2025	16.35x	20.41x	3.30x	$9.1B	$6.93
2024	24.88x	64.54x	3.29x	$6.6B	$1.60
2023	54.11x	neg	1.73x	$7.4B	$-2.56
2022	8.52x	9.21x	1.30x	$11.7B	$7.50
2021	12.75x	16.03x	1.97x	$10.7B	$5.43

Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY

Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.

Date	EPS act	EPS est	EPS surp%	Rev surp%	Excess/21d
2026-04-28	$4.10	$3.51	+16.8%	+5.1%	+13.4%
2026-01-27	$3.11	$2.78	+11.9%	+3.6%	-9.0%
2025-10-28	$2.61	$2.40	+8.8%	+3.2%	+11.8%
2025-07-29	$2.59	$2.45	+5.7%	+0.9%	+15.3%
2025-04-29	$1.90	$1.74	+9.2%	+1.7%	+7.0%
2025-01-21	$2.03	$1.87	+8.6%	+0.2%	+2.3%
2024-10-22	$1.58	$1.49	+6.0%	+1.8%	-10.2%
2024-07-23	$1.05	$0.76	+37.8%	+0.9%	-5.0%
2024-04-23	$0.33	$0.29	+13.2%	-1.3%	-4.2%
2024-01-24	$0.12	$-0.07	+271.4%	+0.4%	-13.5%
2023-10-26	$-0.22	$-0.20	-10.0%	-5.1%	-2.5%
2023-07-26	$-0.18	$-0.23	+21.7%	-5.0%	+5.7%
2023-04-20	$-0.28	$0.19	-247.4%	-5.9%	+1.9%
2023-01-25	$0.16	$0.11	+45.5%	+3.4%	-4.9%
2022-10-26	$0.48	$0.68	-29.4%	-3.1%	-8.1%
2022-07-21	$1.59	$1.90	-16.3%	-5.8%	-6.1%
2022-04-27	$1.81	$1.84	-1.6%	-0.0%	+6.9%
2022-01-26	$2.41	$2.37	+1.7%	+0.1%	-3.5%
2021-10-22	$2.35	$2.22	+5.9%	+0.3%	+4.0%
2021-07-21	$2.00	$1.89	+5.8%	-3.2%	+7.6%

Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY — how consensus moved after each print

No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.

Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY

Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.

Model Portfolio Status

Last recorded action: sell on 2026-06-22 (mech —, news_adj —, surp —)

News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE — UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible

No news recorded yet.

Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat

Consensus PT

$945.38

+26.5% from current

Median PT

$1,000.00

High PT

$1,600.00

Low PT

$500.00

Current

$747.30

Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.

⚠ Deterioration Alerts

Date	Type	Severity	Detail
2026-07-28	price_drop	high	Condition 1: -8.53% single-day drop
2026-07-27	deterioration	medium	[drop -4.07%] Condition: (a) large intraday move
2026-07-24	deterioration	medium	Condition: (a) -6.75% single-day drop
2026-07-16	deterioration	medium	condition: sharp drop -10.00%
2026-07-15	price_drop	medium	Large drop: -5.69% (condition a: change_pct ≤ -4%)

Seagate Technology STX