Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA39.5x
100%ile
P/E55.5x
100%ile
P/S9.5x
100%ile
FY
EV/EBITDA
P/E
P/S
Revenue
EPS
2025
39.49x
55.46x
9.49x
$3.2B
$3.49
2024
26.78x
36.93x
7.10x
$2.8B
$3.41
2023
25.20x
37.29x
6.26x
$2.7B
$2.91
2022
13.81x
19.33x
4.39x
$3.2B
$4.52
2021
20.01x
26.59x
7.29x
$3.7B
$6.15
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
Date
EPS act
EPS est
EPS surp%
Rev surp%
Excess/21d
2026-04-28
$2.56
$2.11
+21.3%
+6.9%
-1.2%
2026-02-02
$1.80
$1.38
+30.4%
+10.9%
+6.5%
2025-10-28
$0.85
$0.79
+7.6%
+3.4%
+12.2%
2025-07-29
$0.57
$0.54
+5.2%
+0.2%
+7.9%
2025-04-28
$0.75
$0.62
+21.2%
+0.8%
-16.0%
2025-01-29
$0.95
$0.91
+4.4%
+1.6%
+3.8%
2024-10-23
$0.90
$0.79
+13.9%
+2.9%
-9.1%
2024-07-24
$0.86
$0.77
+11.7%
+4.1%
+5.4%
2024-04-24
$0.51
$0.33
+54.5%
+5.5%
+19.0%
2024-01-30
$0.79
$0.71
+11.3%
-0.6%
-11.1%
2023-10-25
$0.80
$0.73
+9.6%
+2.2%
-9.1%
2023-07-26
$0.79
$0.66
+19.7%
+3.9%
-4.1%
2023-04-26
$0.55
$0.43
+27.9%
+3.1%
-5.1%
2023-01-25
$0.92
$0.75
+22.7%
+2.8%
-0.6%
2022-10-25
$1.15
$1.04
+10.6%
+3.3%
+2.1%
2022-07-26
$1.21
$1.14
+6.1%
+1.4%
-8.4%
2022-04-26
$0.98
$0.88
+11.4%
+1.9%
-1.9%
2022-01-26
$1.37
$1.29
+6.2%
+2.0%
+3.1%
2021-10-26
$1.59
$1.43
+11.2%
+1.9%
+10.9%
2021-07-27
$1.91
$1.76
+8.5%
+16.5%
-5.4%
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
Model Portfolio Status
Not in model portfolio.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
No news recorded yet.
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$408.30
+27.3% from current
Median PT
$388.50
High PT
$550.00
Low PT
$270.00
Current
$320.65
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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