Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2025 |
17.32x |
28.59x |
12.83x |
$3.85T |
$333.05 |
| 2024 |
16.40x |
28.10x |
11.62x |
$2.89T |
$230.80 |
| 2023 |
10.53x |
19.99x |
7.65x |
$2.16T |
$159.65 |
| 2022 |
7.14x |
11.49x |
5.22x |
$2.26T |
$198.60 |
| 2021 |
15.52x |
29.17x |
10.86x |
$1.59T |
$113.95 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-04-15 |
$3.49 |
$3.31 |
+5.4% |
+1.8% |
-2.9% |
| 2026-01-15 |
$3.09 |
$2.90 |
+6.6% |
+0.4% |
+1.9% |
| 2025-11-14 |
$2.85 |
$2.63 |
+8.4% |
+0.9% |
+0.4% |
| 2025-08-14 |
$2.61 |
$2.38 |
+9.7% |
+5.1% |
-1.6% |
| 2025-05-15 |
$2.14 |
$2.07 |
+3.4% |
+1.4% |
-0.9% |
| 2025-01-16 |
$2.19 |
$2.20 |
-0.5% |
+0.5% |
-5.8% |
| 2024-11-14 |
$1.95 |
$1.79 |
+8.9% |
+1.3% |
-4.6% |
| 2024-08-14 |
$1.47 |
$1.41 |
+4.3% |
+1.6% |
-2.5% |
| 2024-05-15 |
$1.34 |
$1.30 |
+3.1% |
+0.0% |
+7.3% |
| 2024-01-18 |
$1.46 |
$1.38 |
+5.8% |
+0.6% |
+0.7% |
| 2023-11-14 |
$1.26 |
$1.16 |
+8.6% |
-0.4% |
-4.0% |
| 2023-07-13 |
$1.13 |
$1.07 |
+5.6% |
+0.2% |
-12.2% |
| 2023-04-20 |
$1.31 |
$1.21 |
+8.3% |
-2.3% |
-2.3% |
| 2023-04-13 |
$1.40 |
$1.21 |
+15.7% |
+0.7% |
-4.5% |
| 2023-01-12 |
$1.82 |
$1.80 |
+1.1% |
-0.1% |
+3.6% |
| 2022-07-14 |
$1.55 |
$1.50 |
+3.3% |
+1.1% |
-10.9% |
| 2022-05-13 |
$1.37 |
$1.27 |
+7.9% |
+2.6% |
+3.6% |
| 2022-04-14 |
$1.39 |
$1.31 |
+6.1% |
+1.2% |
-4.5% |
| 2021-11-12 |
$1.08 |
$1.05 |
+2.9% |
-2.2% |
-1.0% |
| 2021-10-14 |
$1.08 |
$1.05 |
+2.9% |
-11.9% |
-9.3% |
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▲ bullish
long
2026-08-12
13.4% EPS surprise in Q2 plus July revenue above trend; capex raised alongside revenue guidance signals confident demand visibility from hyperscaler customers, not a one-quarter cyclical pop.
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-08-07
Stock slid -0.55% as market read capex raise as dilutive near-term; but 2nm wafer output approaching 100K/month by year-end and 3nm fab additions are structurally bullish for AI chip supply — consensus had not fully priced in pace of capacity acceleration
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-08-06
Reclaim of $2T cap comes after fears of N2 margin dilution and Arizona cost overruns had pushed stock lower; +7.6% in one session suggests institutional reassessment of AI wafer demand trajectory above prior capacity utilization assumptions.
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-08-05
Q3 revenue guide at high end above prior street consensus; margin guidance 65-67% implies continued advanced node pricing power; >90% advanced processor share expected through 2030.
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-08-04
Beat across all metrics and raised guidance twice; $100B Arizona expansion exceeds what analysts modeled—structural AI wafer demand running well ahead of consensus capacity forecasts through 2028
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$578.43
+28.4% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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