Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2025 |
29.73x |
46.42x |
6.05x |
$10.2B |
$3.49 |
| 2024 |
37.60x |
86.07x |
5.34x |
$8.0B |
$1.32 |
| 2023 |
20.12x |
39.69x |
2.66x |
$6.9B |
$1.21 |
| 2022 |
13.36x |
neg |
0.90x |
$5.7B |
$-0.04 |
| 2021 |
23.89x |
73.44x |
1.78x |
$5.0B |
$0.34 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-04-22 |
$1.17 |
$1.00 |
+17.0% |
+0.4% |
-13.5% |
| 2026-02-11 |
$1.36 |
$1.29 |
+5.4% |
+0.1% |
+9.7% |
| 2025-10-22 |
$1.24 |
$0.98 |
+26.0% |
+3.8% |
-3.4% |
| 2025-07-30 |
$0.95 |
$0.83 |
+14.2% |
+12.1% |
-11.0% |
| 2025-04-23 |
$0.64 |
$0.61 |
+4.1% |
+5.1% |
+1.4% |
| 2025-02-12 |
$0.99 |
$0.82 |
+20.7% |
+8.9% |
-4.2% |
| 2024-10-23 |
$0.76 |
$0.69 |
+10.3% |
+4.8% |
+20.5% |
| 2024-07-24 |
$0.67 |
$0.57 |
+17.1% |
+0.4% |
-1.2% |
| 2024-04-24 |
$0.43 |
$0.36 |
+19.9% |
+1.0% |
+4.3% |
| 2024-02-21 |
$0.56 |
$0.53 |
+5.7% |
-0.6% |
+20.4% |
| 2023-10-25 |
$0.52 |
$0.44 |
+18.2% |
-0.4% |
+4.9% |
| 2023-08-02 |
$0.46 |
$0.29 |
+58.6% |
+7.3% |
+12.5% |
| 2023-04-26 |
$0.24 |
$0.17 |
+41.2% |
-5.3% |
+16.4% |
| 2023-02-22 |
$0.28 |
$0.30 |
-6.7% |
-1.3% |
-20.4% |
| 2022-10-26 |
$0.23 |
$0.21 |
+9.5% |
+0.4% |
-20.2% |
| 2022-08-03 |
$0.10 |
$0.10 |
+0.0% |
+5.6% |
-4.0% |
| 2022-04-27 |
$-0.08 |
$-0.16 |
+50.0% |
+1.3% |
-10.8% |
| 2022-02-23 |
$0.04 |
$0.28 |
-85.7% |
-0.9% |
-0.1% |
| 2021-10-27 |
$0.20 |
$0.19 |
+5.3% |
-1.5% |
-7.6% |
| 2021-07-28 |
$0.31 |
$0.24 |
+29.2% |
-1.8% |
-1.4% |
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY
— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
● neutral
near
2026-07-21
Strong operational execution but stock trading at fair value per 29-analyst consensus near-term — further upside needs guide raise or evidence demand outlook is accelerating beyond current 52x forward P/E
source ↗
▲ bullish
near
2026-07-20
Q1 beat by 17% vs consensus and $15B backlog (+109% YoY) support continued outperformance, but 53x forward PE means binary outcome — even a 5% revenue miss would compress the multiple meaningfully; data center cooling structural demand is the floor.
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-15
Consistent beats (4 of last 4 quarters above estimates) and raised full-year guidance suggest expectations are still being set conservatively; adjusted EPS growth of 66% YoY and record data center cooling demand point to sustained outperformance -- Q2 on deck with $1.43 EPS consensus.
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-14
Expansion validates demand visibility but VRT trades at 84x P/E and 95% above estimated intrinsic value — guidance raise priced in; miss risk disproportionately large vs any beat upside.
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-06-23
Even a Sell-to-Hold upgrade from a bear signals exhaustion of the short thesis; $15B backlog and AI data center power/cooling secular demand is exceeding prior forecasts, justifying premium valuation
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$372.60
+38.2% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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