Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY
— slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):- The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
- Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
| FY | EV/EBITDA | P/E | P/S | Revenue | EPS |
|---|
| 2025 |
14.17x |
73.00x |
3.23x |
$17.0B |
$2.21 |
| 2024 |
8.86x |
19.26x |
2.45x |
$19.4B |
$7.16 |
| 2023 |
5.51x |
10.61x |
0.92x |
$15.5B |
$3.63 |
| 2022 |
17.62x |
neg |
0.55x |
$17.8B |
$-3.26 |
| 2021 |
24.25x |
neg |
0.82x |
$13.3B |
$-2.62 |
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
| Date | EPS act | EPS est | EPS surp% |
Rev surp% | Excess/21d |
| 2026-05-07 |
$2.87 |
$1.32 |
+117.4% |
+8.1% |
n/a |
| 2026-02-26 |
$0.54 |
$2.31 |
-76.5% |
-20.8% |
-5.7% |
| 2025-11-06 |
$1.75 |
$2.08 |
-15.9% |
-18.7% |
-14.1% |
| 2025-08-06 |
$0.81 |
$0.88 |
-7.4% |
-10.4% |
-10.6% |
| 2025-05-08 |
$-0.93 |
$0.54 |
-273.5% |
+13.7% |
-3.0% |
| 2025-02-27 |
$1.14 |
$0.85 |
+34.1% |
+88.1% |
+1.5% |
| 2024-11-07 |
$5.40 |
$1.20 |
+350.0% |
+10.4% |
-2.2% |
| 2024-08-08 |
$0.90 |
$1.38 |
-34.8% |
-7.0% |
-3.6% |
| 2024-05-09 |
$0.23 |
$0.62 |
-62.8% |
-4.5% |
-10.9% |
| 2024-02-28 |
$-0.55 |
$-0.04 |
-1471.4% |
-2.3% |
+21.7% |
| 2023-11-07 |
$1.25 |
$1.58 |
-20.9% |
+27.4% |
-0.7% |
| 2023-08-09 |
$1.17 |
$0.82 |
+42.7% |
-46.0% |
+7.6% |
| 2023-05-09 |
$-0.40 |
$-0.02 |
-1900.0% |
+98.8% |
-21.1% |
| 2023-03-01 |
$-0.73 |
$4.63 |
-115.8% |
-32.9% |
+7.2% |
| 2022-11-04 |
$1.51 |
$1.58 |
-4.4% |
-12.5% |
-5.6% |
| 2022-08-05 |
$1.48 |
$0.17 |
+770.6% |
-6.0% |
+9.1% |
| 2022-05-06 |
$-0.06 |
$0.23 |
-126.1% |
+3.2% |
+5.2% |
| 2022-02-25 |
$1.50 |
$1.60 |
-6.3% |
-41.8% |
-4.2% |
| 2021-11-05 |
$0.03 |
$1.52 |
-98.0% |
-17.0% |
+4.0% |
| 2021-08-05 |
$0.07 |
$0.55 |
-87.3% |
-17.0% |
+1.2% |
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY
— how consensus moved after each print
No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE
— UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
● neutral
long
2026-07-23
PJM capacity auction result was volume-up / price-at-cap — marginal positive but not the bullish price signal AI-power bulls were hoping for; run-rate barely improved (+0.8%), leaving the thesis on data center demand intact but unvalidated by this print.
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-21
Fitch IG upgrade is a structural positive that expands the institutional buyer base; EBITDA guide midpoint reaffirmation vs expectations of potential guide cut is bullish; AI power demand from data centers is the long-term demand driver
source ↗
▼ bearish
near
2026-07-20
Stock at 52-week low despite management reaffirming strong EBITDA guidance — suggests market is pricing in power price cap risk from PJM regulatory proposals; Aug 7 earnings could re-rate if margin fears prove overstated.
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-16
KKR partnership validates Vistra as preferred AI data center power provider and signals monetization beyond spot power markets; $2.43 EPS estimate implies 141% YoY growth—bar is high but PJM market position and clean energy mix support premium pricing
source ↗
▲ bullish
long
2026-07-14
Acquisition ahead of consensus demand expectations; AI electricity demand pulling forward utility capex and M&A into timeline utility sector bulls had not modeled; Wall Street implies 47% upside.
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$221.78
+49.2% from current
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
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