Stock Demon Overview Strategy Portfolio Earnings Digest Health Architecture Private cockpit · Not investment advice
power

Vistra VST

Price
$138.46
+0.4% today
Mkt Cap
$46.7B
Beta
1.41
52w Range
7%
pos in 52w lo→hi
RVOL
1.07
First trade
2021-06-01
Price History VALIDATED
50d MA (orange) · 200d MA (purple) · Price (blue)
Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY — slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical
Research notes (read before interpreting):
  • The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
  • Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.
Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.
EV/EBITDA 14.2x
46%ile
P/E 73.0x
100%ile
P/S 3.2x
100%ile
FYEV/EBITDAP/EP/SRevenueEPS
2025 14.17x 73.00x 3.23x $17.0B $2.21
2024 8.86x 19.26x 2.45x $19.4B $7.16
2023 5.51x 10.61x 0.92x $15.5B $3.63
2022 17.62x neg 0.55x $17.8B $-3.26
2021 24.25x neg 0.82x $13.3B $-2.62
Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY
Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.
DateEPS actEPS estEPS surp% Rev surp%Excess/21d
2026-05-07 $2.87 $1.32 +117.4% +8.1% n/a
2026-02-26 $0.54 $2.31 -76.5% -20.8% -5.7%
2025-11-06 $1.75 $2.08 -15.9% -18.7% -14.1%
2025-08-06 $0.81 $0.88 -7.4% -10.4% -10.6%
2025-05-08 $-0.93 $0.54 -273.5% +13.7% -3.0%
2025-02-27 $1.14 $0.85 +34.1% +88.1% +1.5%
2024-11-07 $5.40 $1.20 +350.0% +10.4% -2.2%
2024-08-08 $0.90 $1.38 -34.8% -7.0% -3.6%
2024-05-09 $0.23 $0.62 -62.8% -4.5% -10.9%
2024-02-28 $-0.55 $-0.04 -1471.4% -2.3% +21.7%
2023-11-07 $1.25 $1.58 -20.9% +27.4% -0.7%
2023-08-09 $1.17 $0.82 +42.7% -46.0% +7.6%
2023-05-09 $-0.40 $-0.02 -1900.0% +98.8% -21.1%
2023-03-01 $-0.73 $4.63 -115.8% -32.9% +7.2%
2022-11-04 $1.51 $1.58 -4.4% -12.5% -5.6%
2022-08-05 $1.48 $0.17 +770.6% -6.0% +9.1%
2022-05-06 $-0.06 $0.23 -126.1% +3.2% +5.2%
2022-02-25 $1.50 $1.60 -6.3% -41.8% -4.2%
2021-11-05 $0.03 $1.52 -98.0% -17.0% +4.0%
2021-08-05 $0.07 $0.55 -87.3% -17.0% +1.2%
Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY — how consensus moved after each print
PrintEPS rev%Rev rev%PT rev%DirGuidance
2026-08-07 — — — — maintained
Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY
Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.
Model Portfolio Status
Not in model portfolio.
News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE — UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible
▼ bearish near 2026-08-10
GAAP EPS miss -59% is misleading—EBITDA +30% YoY and guide reaffirmed; retail likely sold on headline miss while operational business was solid; retail-trap setup
source ↗
● neutral near 2026-08-05
Pre-earnings -8.15% selloff could signal concern about Q1 record being a tough comp; however data center electricity demand narrative remains intact; wide EPS range ($1.95-$2.21 across sources) reflects analyst uncertainty about power pricing.
source ↗
● neutral near 2026-08-03
PJM proposal to cap electricity prices not fully reflected in consensus estimates; negative ESP (Earnings Surprise Prediction) despite near-universal Strong Buy analyst coverage signals short-term miss risk; Meta 2.6GW 20-year nuclear power deal is FY27+ positive but doesn’t help near-term earnings; EPS consensus $2.02-$2.43 (+141% YoY) is a high bar.
source ↗
▲ bullish long 2026-07-31
Market expected VST to trade like a utility; 20-year locked hyperscaler contracts at above-market rates reposition it as an AI infrastructure play — multiple expansion story, not just yield
source ↗
▲ bullish long 2026-07-29
Management reaffirmed guidance after strong Q1 with active buyback signaling confidence; 81% EPS growth at a utility-adjacent multiple means street may still undervalue the data center power thesis; peer VST trades at discount to pure-play power peers
source ↗
Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat
Consensus PT
$217.45
+57.0% from current
Median PT
$210.00
High PT
$298.00
Low PT
$169.00
Current
$138.46
Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.
⚠ Deterioration Alerts
DateTypeSeverityDetail
2026-08-07 range_position medium Range position: 0.09 [near-52w-low — position signal, may fire on an up day]
2026-08-06 deterioration medium Power layer: near 52w-low (range_pos 10%) [near-52w-low — position signal, may fire on an up day]
2026-08-05 deterioration medium Condition: (c) near-52w-low — position signal, may fire on an up day
2026-08-04 deterioration high Heavy decline (-8.2%, RVOL 2.3x)
2026-07-29 deterioration medium Condition (c): range_pos=0.116 [near-52w-low — position signal, may fire on an up day]