WDC — Western Digital

Price History VALIDATED

50d MA (orange) · 200d MA (purple) · Price (blue)

Valuation vs Own History COMMODITY — slow-moving; 60d lag; EV/EBITDA canonical

Research notes (read before interpreting):

The news-vs-expectations thesis is UNTESTED by the backtest (look-ahead-impossible). Only Agent 6 live forward-tracking can validate whether news_adj improves outcomes. Treat news as a bounded refinement on trial, not a proven driver.
Fundamentals are annual with a 60-day reporting lag; EV/EBITDA is the valuation metric (P/E broke on 45 loss-year rows). Valuation reads are slow-moving, not point-in-time precise.

Percentile within this ticker's own 6-year fundamental history. High = expensive vs itself.

EV/EBITDA 12.9x

8%ile

P/E 11.9x

40%ile

P/S 2.3x

73%ile

FY	EV/EBITDA	P/E	P/S	Revenue	EPS
2025	12.86x	11.92x	2.31x	$9.5B	$5.31
2024	102.62x	neg	2.95x	$6.3B	$-2.61
2023	53.86x	neg	1.46x	$6.3B	$-5.37
2022	4.56x	6.82x	0.54x	$18.8B	$4.81
2021	8.74x	19.72x	0.96x	$16.9B	$2.69

Earnings Surprise Track Record COMMODITY

Canonical signal: avoid-misses is the durable edge (misses lag the basket ~4%/21d excess); beats merely match the sector once drift is stripped. Regime-dependent, effectively small-sample — not proven.

Date	EPS act	EPS est	EPS surp%	Rev surp%	Excess/21d
2026-04-30	$2.72	$2.39	+13.8%	+2.8%	+5.8%
2026-01-29	$2.13	$1.93	+10.4%	+3.0%	-0.9%
2025-10-30	$1.78	$1.59	+11.9%	+3.2%	+13.5%
2025-07-30	$1.66	$1.48	+12.2%	+5.4%	+3.5%
2025-04-30	$1.36	$1.12	+21.4%	-0.9%	-2.3%
2025-01-29	$1.77	$1.35	+31.1%	+0.6%	+6.5%
2024-10-24	$1.78	$1.72	+3.5%	-46.3%	-5.7%
2024-07-31	$1.44	$0.89	+61.4%	-46.5%	+3.3%
2024-04-25	$0.63	$0.16	+284.1%	-48.0%	-5.5%
2024-01-25	$-0.69	$-1.13	+38.9%	-8.4%	-14.0%
2023-10-30	$-1.76	$-1.90	+7.4%	+3.8%	+6.9%
2023-07-31	$-1.98	$-2.01	+1.5%	+5.8%	+0.4%
2023-05-08	$-1.37	$-1.57	+12.7%	+3.8%	-0.9%
2023-01-31	$-0.42	$-0.15	-185.2%	+4.3%	-8.2%
2022-10-27	$0.20	$0.38	-47.2%	+4.1%	-4.1%
2022-08-05	$1.78	$1.74	+2.3%	-0.9%	-3.4%
2022-04-28	$1.65	$1.49	+10.7%	+0.8%	+11.5%
2022-01-27	$2.30	$2.13	+8.0%	+19.7%	+0.6%
2021-10-28	$2.49	$2.45	+1.6%	-0.1%	+3.9%
2021-08-04	$2.16	$1.51	+43.0%	+0.0%	-9.5%

Post-Earnings Revisions COMMODITY — how consensus moved after each print

No computed revisions yet — snapshots need to bracket a print.

Consensus EPS Revision Trajectory COMMODITY

Forward-year consensus EPS over time — shows how estimates move after each print. Data accrues forward from snapshot start date.

Model Portfolio Status

Last recorded action: sell on 2026-06-22 (mech —, news_adj —, surp —)

News Lean UNPROVEN LIVE — UNPROVEN LIVE-ONLY: no historical validation possible

No news recorded yet.

Analyst Context — the consensus we're trying to beat

Consensus PT

$570.33

+23.0% from current

Median PT

$575.00

High PT

$1,050.00

Low PT

$250.00

Current

$463.51

Price targets from FMP consensus. Not a recommendation.

⚠ Deterioration Alerts

Date	Type	Severity	Detail
2026-07-28	price_drop	high	Condition 1: -6.91% single-day drop
2026-07-27	deterioration	medium	[drop -4.21%] Condition: (a) large intraday move
2026-07-24	deterioration	medium	Condition: (a) -6.90% single-day drop
2026-07-16	deterioration	medium	condition: sharp drop -9.15%
2026-07-15	price_drop	medium	Very large drop: -8.78% (condition a: change_pct ≤ -4%)

Western Digital WDC