Weekly Digest

Stock Demon Weekly Digest -- Week ending 2026-06-21

Regime. 71% of the universe (30/42) sits above its 50-day SMA and 79% (33/42) above its 200-day SMA; the basket trades at 1.52x its own 200-day average. 14 names are within 5% of their 52-week highs. Label: bull/momentum intact -- broadly extended.

Movers. WDC led at +32.6% (5d, RVOL 2.1x) -- the memory/storage re-rate on HBM and AI demand continues; now at 93% of its 52-week range. NBIS added +23.4% (RVOL 2.1x), pushing to a new 52-week high (range_pos 0.952) on continued 684%-growth-quarter momentum. ENTG gained +18.8% (RVOL 2.0x), also breaking to 52-week highs as semi materials ride the upcycle. SMR bounced +18.5% but sits at just 6% of its 52-week range -- counter-trend bounce in a structurally weak name, not a momentum signal. On the downside, CIEN fell -4.0%; it was near its 52-week high pre-earnings (Jun 4 print) and the miss-risk flag proved prescient. MSFT lost -2.9% and now trades at just 12% of its 52-week range, consistently lagging the basket. HPE dipped -1.6% on elevated RVOL (2.0x). Highest RVOL of the week: MRVL at 6.1x -- still digesting Jensen Huang calling it the next trillion-dollar company plus the $2B NVIDIA strategic investment from early June.

Risk. No alerts raised this week. Portfolio drawdown is ~0% vs the -20% limit. Critical watch: DELL is at $410.00 against a stop price of $410.10, essentially at its stop level -- flag for review at next rebalance. Concentration risk: all 8 positions are AI-infra tech, highly correlated; a regime shift would hit the full book simultaneously.

Portfolio. No changes this week. The eight-position equal-weight book (ALAB, AMD, DELL, MRVL, MU, NBIS, STX, WDC at 12.5% each) has been held since the June 1 open. Estimated return since inception: ~+17%. Best: MRVL +41.6%, WDC +36.6%, ALAB +30.3%. Laggard: DELL -12.0%, now at its stop.

Earnings just landed. No new earnings_surprises records captured for Jun 15-21. ORCL printed ~Jun 10 per earnings_radar; no surprise entry captured but the stock now sits at range_pos 0.236, well off highs -- consistent with the radar flag of avg excess 21d -8.2% and priced for perfection. Earlier: AVGO (Jun 3) beat EPS by 5.2% and Q3 AI guide of $29.4B smashed expectations but fell ~15% post-print because the full-year $100B AI target was held rather than raised -- classic buy-the-rumor/sell-the-news. CIEN (Jun 4) faded from near its 52-week high as warned.

Next week. MU reports June 24 -- only print in the radar. HELD at 12.5% weight. Setup is high-risk: range_pos 0.985, whisper at record $33.5B revenue / ~81% gross margin, and the March 2026 precedent where a big EPS beat (+33%) still produced a -20% stock drop in 5 days (excess_5d -15%). Bar is very high; position is full-weight going into the print -- flag for pre-earnings review.

Data note. News pipeline last ingested June 5; no new items this week. Regime SMA computed from full price_snapshots history (2021-06-01 to 2026-06-21, 1,271 trading days).

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Caveats: Edge is momentum-validated on one historical path -- can turn without warning. Commodity/macro surprises can override fundamentals. News lean ratings are UNPROVEN-LIVE-ONLY -- not backtested signals. Not investment advice.