Weekly Digest

Stock Demon — Week Ending Jul 19, 2026

Regime: Mixed under pressure. 67% of universe (29/43 names) sits in the upper half of its 52-week range (avg range_pos 0.52), but the basket took a sharp leg down July 14–16. Momentum is deteriorating faster than the regime read suggests.

Movers. Three names managed gains on the week. Entegris (ENTG, +1.8%) and GE Vernova (GEV, +1.5%) held up in the power/infra sub-theme. ASML (+1.3%) recovered from an intraday earnings fade — it beat on revenue (€9.33B vs €8.8B est) and raised full-year guidance to €43–45B for the second time, yet the stock dropped on the print (RVOL 2.2x) before recovering. Everything else was red. SanDisk (SNDK, -19.1%), Astera Labs (ALAB, -16.1%), and Ciena (CIEN, -16.0%) led the losses. The storage complex (WDC -14.1%, MU -9.4%, STX -8.6%) sold off hard following SK Hynix's stumble at its exchange debut. Nebius (NBIS, -15.6%, -36% past month) took a second leg down on reports that Meta is building competing AI cloud infrastructure — a structural threat to NBIS's anchor demand thesis [⚠️ UNPROVEN-LIVE-ONLY]. ARM (-10.6%) and MRVL (-13.3%) continued to derate. TSM reported a clean beat (EPS $4.31 vs $3.87 est; revenue $40.2B; gross margin 67.7% — 8th consecutive beat) with elevated RVOL (1.74x) but still fell -5.5% on the week — sell-the-news dynamics were clear.

Risk. This was a high-alert week: 71 deterioration flags fired in seven days, concentrated on July 14–16, the broadest single-week burst on record. Six names are now near or at 52-week lows: ORCL (range pos 2.2%), SMR (1.0%), NRG (12.9%), CEG (12.9%), CRWV (10.5%), SMCI (10.9%). The last logged portfolio drawdown (Jul 13) was -12.9% from the June 22 peak of 116.99. Based on position-level moves since then, estimated current drawdown is approximately -21%, breaching the -20% threshold. Three positions are now trading below their stop prices: CRDO ($202.68 vs stop $217.93), MU ($848.95 vs stop $862.04), and MRVL ($188.68 vs stop $200.13). Portfolio rebalancer action needed.

Portfolio. The model rebalanced on July 13: sold AMD (fell out of top-8), ARM (stop breached at -32% from entry $439.46), and ENTG (stop breached at -24%); bought ANET, CRDO, and MU. All three new entries immediately moved against the position — CRDO -14.4%, MU -9.4%, ANET -6.9% since entry. Current holdings (8 equal-weight positions at ~12.5% each): ALAB (entry $320.09, now -5.1%), DELL (entry $466.02, now -14.9%), MRVL (entry $219.43, now -13.9%), NVDA (entry $210.69, now -3.3%), EQIX (entry $1,092.19, now -6.6%), ANET (entry $181.15, now -6.9%), CRDO (entry $236.88, now -14.4%), MU (entry $937, now -9.4%).

Earnings just landed. No prints were captured in the earnings_surprises table this week. TSM and ASML both reported strong fundamentals — TSM ended the week -5.5% despite its beat; ASML recovered to +1.3% after selling off on the print.

Next week. Heavy earnings slate — 15 reports across the universe. July 22: GEV (163% avg EPS surprise but flagged "priced for perfection") and GOOGL (100% beat rate, also flagged stretched). July 23: DLR and INTC. July 28: KLAC, TER, STX. July 29 is the biggest day: ARM, EQIX (held — avg 21d excess has been -4.5% post-earnings historically), LRCX, META, MSFT, and QCOM all print. EQIX is the only portfolio holding on the tape; its historical post-earnings pattern in this system is slightly negative at 21 days. MSFT at only 25% of its 52w range (down 20% YTD) is a depressed setup. ARM carries a 288x forward PE with wide analyst divergence (HSBC downgrade vs KeyBanc $430 bull).

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Caveats: All momentum signals reflect one validated model path; out-of-sample behavior may differ. The storage selloff may reflect a macro commodity shock (Iran/Hormuz oil spike) not specific to AI demand fundamentals. News signals are ⚠️ UNPROVEN-LIVE-ONLY — ingested but not forward-tested for alpha impact. Not investment advice.